{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3158738363","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-72657-7_12","title":"Forecasting the Retirement Age: A Bayesian Model Ensemble Approach","display_name":"Forecasting the Retirement Age: A Bayesian Model Ensemble Approach","publication_year":2021,"publication_date":"2021-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3158738363","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-72657-7_12","mag":"3158738363"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1007/978-3-030-72657-7_12","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-72657-7_12","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764905038","display_name":"Advances in intelligent systems and computing","issn_l":"2194-5357","issn":["2194-5357","2194-5365"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319965","host_organization_name":"Springer Nature","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Nature"],"type":"book series"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing","raw_type":"book-chapter"},"type":"book-chapter","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10362/118506","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5051215329","display_name":"Jorge Miguel Bravo","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7389-5103"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210160189","display_name":"Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux","ror":"https://ror.org/054qv7y42","country_code":"FR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210160189"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I83558840","display_name":"Universidade Nova de Lisboa","ror":"https://ror.org/02xankh89","country_code":"PT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I83558840"]}],"countries":["FR","PT"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Jorge M. Bravo","raw_affiliation_strings":["NOVA IMS - Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Universit\u00e9 Paris-Dauphine PSL, MagIC, CEFAGE-UE, Lisbon, Portugal"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7389-5103","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"NOVA IMS - Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Universit\u00e9 Paris-Dauphine PSL, MagIC, CEFAGE-UE, Lisbon, Portugal","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I83558840","https://openalex.org/I4210160189"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5114376830","display_name":"Mercedes Ayuso","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6127-4572"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I71999127","display_name":"Universitat de Barcelona","ror":"https://ror.org/021018s57","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I71999127"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mercedes Ayuso","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Econometrics, Statistics and Applied Economy, Riskcenter-UB, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6127-4572","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Econometrics, Statistics and Applied Economy, Riskcenter-UB, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I71999127"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":3,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5051215329"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210160189","https://openalex.org/I83558840"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":37.8297,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":20,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.99666389,"is_in_top_1_percent":true,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":90,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":"123","last_page":"135"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12011","display_name":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","score":0.9998000264167786,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3317","display_name":"Demography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12011","display_name":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","score":0.9998000264167786,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3317","display_name":"Demography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12781","display_name":"Global Health Care Issues","score":0.9958999752998352,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3600","display_name":"General Health Professions"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/36","display_name":"Health Professions"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14509","display_name":"demographic modeling and climate adaptation","score":0.9779000282287598,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/life-expectancy","display_name":"Life expectancy","score":0.8279498815536499},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/pension","display_name":"Pension","score":0.725570559501648},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/retirement-age","display_name":"Retirement age","score":0.6224472522735596},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economics","display_name":"Economics","score":0.5677292346954346},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/indexation","display_name":"Indexation","score":0.4981515407562256},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.47294163703918457},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/population-ageing","display_name":"Population ageing","score":0.4679053723812103},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/accrual","display_name":"Accrual","score":0.44517266750335693},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/actuarial-science","display_name":"Actuarial science","score":0.4416294991970062},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-probability","display_name":"Bayesian probability","score":0.4317435324192047},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/longevity-risk","display_name":"Longevity risk","score":0.4277034401893616},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/population","display_name":"Population","score":0.40116146206855774},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.12479233741760254},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/finance","display_name":"Finance","score":0.11458921432495117},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/monetary-policy","display_name":"Monetary policy","score":0.11137422919273376},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/demography","display_name":"Demography","score":0.1107509434223175},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/macroeconomics","display_name":"Macroeconomics","score":0.10688713192939758},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.08256563544273376}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C133925201","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188419","display_name":"Life expectancy","level":3,"score":0.8279498815536499},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780899237","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q156223","display_name":"Pension","level":2,"score":0.725570559501648},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777288899","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1413228","display_name":"Retirement age","level":3,"score":0.6224472522735596},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.5677292346954346},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C186311912","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2038409","display_name":"Indexation","level":3,"score":0.4981515407562256},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.47294163703918457},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C13774568","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q439112","display_name":"Population ageing","level":3,"score":0.4679053723812103},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C4577558","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q384475","display_name":"Accrual","level":3,"score":0.44517266750335693},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162118730","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1128453","display_name":"Actuarial science","level":1,"score":0.4416294991970062},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.4317435324192047},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781386606","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6673769","display_name":"Longevity risk","level":3,"score":0.4277034401893616},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.40116146206855774},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.12479233741760254},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C10138342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43015","display_name":"Finance","level":1,"score":0.11458921432495117},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126285488","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q178476","display_name":"Monetary policy","level":2,"score":0.11137422919273376},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149923435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37732","display_name":"Demography","level":1,"score":0.1107509434223175},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139719470","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39680","display_name":"Macroeconomics","level":1,"score":0.10688713192939758},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.08256563544273376},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781426361","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5326940","display_name":"Earnings","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1007/978-3-030-72657-7_12","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-72657-7_12","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764905038","display_name":"Advances in intelligent systems and computing","issn_l":"2194-5357","issn":["2194-5357","2194-5365"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319965","host_organization_name":"Springer Nature","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Nature"],"type":"book series"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing","raw_type":"book-chapter"},{"id":"pmh:oai:run.unl.pt:10362/118506","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10362/118506","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210182101","display_name":"Revista de Estudos Anglo-Portugueses/Journal of Anglo-Portuguese Studies","issn_l":"0871-682X","issn":["0871-682X","2184-0687"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"journal article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:run.unl.pt:10362/118589","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10362/118589","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402433","display_name":"Portuguese National Funding Agency for Science, Research and Technology (RCAAP Project by FCT)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"conference object"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:run.unl.pt:10362/118506","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10362/118506","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210182101","display_name":"Revista de Estudos Anglo-Portugueses/Journal of Anglo-Portuguese Studies","issn_l":"0871-682X","issn":["0871-682X","2184-0687"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"journal article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":32,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W279225087","https://openalex.org/W1963561947","https://openalex.org/W1967812191","https://openalex.org/W2003599805","https://openalex.org/W2013807324","https://openalex.org/W2040536112","https://openalex.org/W2057268325","https://openalex.org/W2101518413","https://openalex.org/W2120297822","https://openalex.org/W2125536334","https://openalex.org/W2126771422","https://openalex.org/W2170681242","https://openalex.org/W2472241615","https://openalex.org/W2529052817","https://openalex.org/W2606946255","https://openalex.org/W2756666089","https://openalex.org/W2794778778","https://openalex.org/W2897761968","https://openalex.org/W2905911589","https://openalex.org/W2981465196","https://openalex.org/W2994621990","https://openalex.org/W2997076692","https://openalex.org/W3024752508","https://openalex.org/W3044358124","https://openalex.org/W3095133382","https://openalex.org/W3121171014","https://openalex.org/W3121363749","https://openalex.org/W3122102893","https://openalex.org/W3125590267","https://openalex.org/W3128585973","https://openalex.org/W3162090594","https://openalex.org/W3212849579"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4386108157","https://openalex.org/W2745505578","https://openalex.org/W3088697885","https://openalex.org/W3170124193","https://openalex.org/W2026688385","https://openalex.org/W2182848225","https://openalex.org/W2091938258","https://openalex.org/W2419333112","https://openalex.org/W1971427765","https://openalex.org/W3125865291"],"abstract_inverted_index":null,"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":9}],"updated_date":"2025-11-06T03:46:38.306776","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}