{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7225652199","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s41072-026-00264-0","title":"Bayesian detection of supply-chain cost pressure in a shipping- and trade-exposed economy: evidence from T\u00fcrkiye","display_name":"Bayesian detection of supply-chain cost pressure in a shipping- and trade-exposed economy: evidence from T\u00fcrkiye","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-11-09","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7225652199","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s41072-026-00264-0"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1186/s41072-026-00264-0","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s41072-026-00264-0","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s41072-026-00264-0","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S3034409093","display_name":"Journal of Shipping and Trade","issn_l":"2364-4575","issn":["2364-4575"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","jufo-1","norway-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319965","host_organization_name":"Springer Nature","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Shipping and Trade","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s41072-026-00264-0","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5076510074","display_name":"Mehdi Safaei","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3740-9486","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3740-9486"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210091267","display_name":"\u0130stanbul Geli\u015fim \u00dcniversitesi","ror":"https://ror.org/0188hvh39","country_code":"TR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210091267"]}],"countries":["TR"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Mehdi Safaei","raw_affiliation_strings":["Logistics Management Department, Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences, Istanbul Gelisim University, 34310, Istanbul, T\u00fcrkiye"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3740-9486","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Logistics Management Department, Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences, Istanbul Gelisim University, 34310, Istanbul, T\u00fcrkiye","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210091267"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5076510074"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210091267"],"apc_list":{"value":1790,"currency":"USD","value_usd":1790},"apc_paid":{"value":1790,"currency":"USD","value_usd":1790},"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.0,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11864","display_name":"Supply Chain Resilience and Risk Management","score":0.46880000829696655,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1408","display_name":"Strategy and Management"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11864","display_name":"Supply Chain Resilience and Risk Management","score":0.46880000829696655,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1408","display_name":"Strategy and Management"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11059","display_name":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","score":0.34380000829696655,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11711","display_name":"COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts","score":0.1054999977350235,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-structural-time-series","display_name":"Bayesian structural time series","score":0.6819999814033508},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/counterfactual-analysis","display_name":"counterfactual analysis","score":0.8669999837875366},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/transportation-and-logistics","display_name":"transport and logistics","score":0.3190000057220459},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/energy-prices","display_name":"energy prices","score":0.492000013589859},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/fertilizer-prices","display_name":"fertilizer prices","score":0.8090000152587891},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/agricultural-prices","display_name":"agricultural prices","score":0.675000011920929},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/intermediate-imports","display_name":"intermediate goods imports","score":0.7139999866485596},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/turkey","display_name":"Turkey","score":0.3540000021457672},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/supply-chain-disruption","display_name":"supply chain disruption","score":0.40799999237060547}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121117317","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4439221","display_name":"Credible interval","level":3,"score":0.6632999777793884},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.6340000033378601},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.60589998960495},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.6054999828338623},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C22679943","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q159375","display_name":"Standard deviation","level":2,"score":0.5611000061035156},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C108650721","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1783253","display_name":"Counterfactual thinking","level":2,"score":0.5580999851226807},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44249647","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q208498","display_name":"Confidence interval","level":2,"score":0.4514999985694885},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C123890144","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1975981","display_name":"Vintage","level":2,"score":0.42570000886917114},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.36800000071525574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778067643","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q166507","display_name":"Interval (graph theory)","level":2,"score":0.36559998989105225},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C207201462","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q182505","display_name":"Bayes' theorem","level":3,"score":0.35679998993873596},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C97256817","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1462316","display_name":"Spurious relationship","level":2,"score":0.3499999940395355},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C120934525","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q849149","display_name":"Absolute deviation","level":2,"score":0.34470000863075256},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.33230000734329224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C160234255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812535","display_name":"Bayesian inference","level":3,"score":0.3278999924659729},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.3215999901294708},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777210771","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4927124","display_name":"Block (permutation group theory)","level":2,"score":0.313400000333786},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44492722","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q327069","display_name":"Conditional probability","level":2,"score":0.2903999984264374},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166955791","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q629579","display_name":"Macro","level":2,"score":0.28630000352859497},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C68022304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q842217","display_name":"Bayes estimator","level":3,"score":0.28439998626708984},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C96250715","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q965330","display_name":"Estimation","level":2,"score":0.2711000144481659},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777382242","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6017816","display_name":"Index (typography)","level":2,"score":0.2669000029563904},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C191413810","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17100952","display_name":"Bayesian hierarchical modeling","level":4,"score":0.2651999890804291},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C103402496","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1106171","display_name":"Prediction interval","level":2,"score":0.26080000400543213},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C178131030","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q631360","display_name":"Price index","level":2,"score":0.257999986410141},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204323151","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q905424","display_name":"Range (aeronautics)","level":2,"score":0.251800000667572}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1186/s41072-026-00264-0","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s41072-026-00264-0","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s41072-026-00264-0","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S3034409093","display_name":"Journal of Shipping and Trade","issn_l":"2364-4575","issn":["2364-4575"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","jufo-1","norway-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319965","host_organization_name":"Springer Nature","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Shipping and Trade","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1186/s41072-026-00264-0","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s41072-026-00264-0","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s41072-026-00264-0","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S3034409093","display_name":"Journal of Shipping and Trade","issn_l":"2364-4575","issn":["2364-4575"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","jufo-1","norway-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319965","host_organization_name":"Springer Nature","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Shipping and Trade","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/9","score":0.7207000255584717,"display_name":"Industry, innovation and infrastructure"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4376869455","https://openalex.org/W2619313558","https://openalex.org/W7203691351","https://openalex.org/W7027797491","https://openalex.org/W7171682753","https://openalex.org/W781266645","https://openalex.org/W3158054398","https://openalex.org/W7126378749","https://openalex.org/W3040606034","https://openalex.org/W7160332145"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"Shipping-":[1],"and":[2,21,31,87,108,168,186,207,213],"trade-exposed":[3],"economies":[4],"need":[5],"measures":[6],"that":[7],"distinguish":[8],"cost":[9,137],"pressure":[10],"from":[11,37],"operational":[12,142],"disruption.":[13,143],"We":[14],"construct":[15],"a":[16,48,187,193,200],"six-block":[17],"Monthly":[18],"Systemic":[19],"Cost-pressure":[20],"Supply-chain":[22],"index":[23],"(MSCS)":[24],"for":[25],"T\u00fcrkiye":[26],"using":[27],"78":[28],"monthly":[29,151],"observations":[30],"estimate":[32],"Bayesian":[33],"structural":[34],"time-series":[35],"counterfactuals":[36],"January":[38],"2020\u2013February":[39],"2026.":[40],"March":[41,92,110],"2026":[42],"observed":[43,99],"MSCS":[44],"is":[45,55,72,177,199],"115.608,":[46],"against":[47],"counterfactual":[49],"mean":[50],"of":[51],"111.264;":[52],"the":[53,90,109,130,145,153,174],"deviation":[54,71,128],"4.344":[56],"points":[57],"(90%":[58,76],"CrI":[59,77],"2.355":[60],"to":[61,79,210],"6.225;":[62],"Pr":[63,81],">":[64,82],"0":[65,83],"=":[66,84],"1.0000).":[67],"The":[68,179,197],"March\u2013June":[69],"cumulative":[70],"17.953":[73],"index-point":[74],"months":[75],"7.454":[78],"28.193;":[80],"0.9975).":[85],"Energy":[86],"fertilizer\u2013agriculture":[88],"show":[89],"clearest":[91],"block":[93,112],"signals.":[94],"Transport-and-storage":[95],"H-PPI":[96],"increased":[97],"in":[98],"levels":[100],"but":[101],"remained":[102],"below":[103],"its":[104],"fitted":[105],"trend":[106,132],"mean,":[107],"Logistics\u2013Transport":[111],"credible":[113],"interval":[114],"included":[115],"zero.":[116],"Neither":[117],"Mersin":[118],"throughput":[119],"nor":[120],"nominal":[121],"intermediate-goods":[122],"imports":[123],"showed":[124],"an":[125,214],"abnormal":[126],"downside":[127],"under":[129],"specified":[131],"models.":[133],"These":[134],"results":[135],"indicate":[136],"pressure,":[138],"not":[139,156],"directly":[140],"established":[141],"Because":[144],"post-event":[146],"window":[147],"contains":[148],"only":[149],"four":[150],"observations,":[152],"estimates":[154,180],"do":[155],"establish":[157],"medium-":[158],"or":[159],"long-run":[160],"persistence.":[161],"Origin-specific":[162],"standardisation,":[163],"rolling":[164],"forecasts,":[165],"26":[166],"placebos":[167],"specification":[169],"checks":[170],"evaluate":[171],"predictive":[172],"reliability;":[173],"placebo":[175],"rank":[176],"1/27.":[178],"remain":[181],"conditional":[182],"on":[183],"model":[184],"assumptions":[185],"revised":[188],"data":[189],"snapshot":[190],"rather":[191],"than":[192],"real-time":[194],"vintage":[195],"replay.":[196],"contribution":[198],"transparent":[201],"pressure-monitoring":[202],"architecture":[203],"connecting":[204],"shipping,":[205],"logistics":[206],"trade":[208],"indicators":[209],"posterior":[211],"uncertainty":[212],"illustrative":[215],"institutional-review":[216],"protocol.":[217]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-11T12:16:26.678958","created_date":"2026-11-10T00:00:00"}
