{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7225623513","doi":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.11.07.26367468","title":"Relationship between Excess Mortality Derived from Death Counts and Age-Standardised Mortality Rates: The Case of Germany During the COVID-19 Pandemic","display_name":"Relationship between Excess Mortality Derived from Death Counts and Age-Standardised Mortality Rates: The Case of Germany During the COVID-19 Pandemic","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-11-09","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7225623513","doi":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.11.07.26367468"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.64898/2026.11.07.26367468","doi":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.11.07.26367468","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.11.07.26367468","pdf_url":"https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2026/11/09/2026.11.07.26367468.full.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S3005729997","display_name":"medRxiv","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core"],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315909"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press"],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"medRxiv","raw_type":"posted-content"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2026/11/09/2026.11.07.26367468.full.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5064629892","display_name":"Martin Sauter","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8426-9768","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8426-9768"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I40527276","display_name":"Universit\u00e4t der Bundeswehr M\u00fcnchen","ror":"https://ror.org/05kkv3f82","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1315109972","https://openalex.org/I40527276","https://openalex.org/I4387152969"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Martin Sauter","raw_affiliation_strings":["Universitaet der Bundeswehr Muenchen"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Universitaet der Bundeswehr Muenchen","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I40527276"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5064629892"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I40527276"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.5268999934196472,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.5268999934196472,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12011","display_name":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","score":0.3537999987602234,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3317","display_name":"Demography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14374","display_name":"Statistical Methods in Epidemiology","score":0.056299999356269836,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/excess-mortality","display_name":"excess mortality","score":0.9990000128746033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/age-standardized-mortality-rates","display_name":"age-standardized mortality rates","score":0.9459999799728394},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/death-counts","display_name":"death counts","score":0.6990000009536743},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/covid-19","display_name":"COVID-19 pandemic","score":0.9269999861717224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/p-score","display_name":"P-score","score":0.6340000033378601},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/germany","display_name":"Germany","score":0.4699999988079071}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3018792137","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6914399","display_name":"Excess mortality","level":3,"score":0.8726999759674072},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149923435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37732","display_name":"Demography","level":1,"score":0.6032999753952026},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C179755657","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q58702","display_name":"Mortality rate","level":2,"score":0.5898000001907349},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.5691999793052673},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C89623803","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12184","display_name":"Pandemic","level":5,"score":0.49470001459121704},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132459708","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q744069","display_name":"Extrapolation","level":2,"score":0.45170000195503235},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18747219","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q620994","display_name":"Standard error","level":2,"score":0.42080000042915344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.4020000100135803},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C120195587","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2138790","display_name":"Absolute risk reduction","level":3,"score":0.39559999108314514},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C183115368","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q856577","display_name":"Weighting","level":2,"score":0.38190001249313354},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C12725497","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q810247","display_name":"Baseline (sea)","level":2,"score":0.3653999865055084},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C29374701","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1931388","display_name":"Cause of death","level":3,"score":0.35199999809265137},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.3131999969482422},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C22679943","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q159375","display_name":"Standard deviation","level":2,"score":0.31299999356269836},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3008058167","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q84263196","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","level":4,"score":0.31029999256134033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C82789193","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2142611","display_name":"Relative risk","level":3,"score":0.2703000009059906},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C81917197","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q628760","display_name":"Selection (genetic algorithm)","level":2,"score":0.2689000070095062},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.26750001311302185},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2986834420","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5932254","display_name":"Age groups","level":2,"score":0.2547000050544739}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.64898/2026.11.07.26367468","doi":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.11.07.26367468","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.11.07.26367468","pdf_url":"https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2026/11/09/2026.11.07.26367468.full.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S3005729997","display_name":"medRxiv","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core"],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315909"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press"],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"medRxiv","raw_type":"posted-content"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.64898/2026.11.07.26367468","doi":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.11.07.26367468","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.11.07.26367468","pdf_url":"https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2026/11/09/2026.11.07.26367468.full.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S3005729997","display_name":"medRxiv","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core"],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315909"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press"],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"medRxiv","raw_type":"posted-content"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Good health and well-being","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","score":0.9391000270843506}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7225623513.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7225623513.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":8,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W3173464765","https://openalex.org/W4214810733","https://openalex.org/W4220867566","https://openalex.org/W4281641433","https://openalex.org/W4311472757","https://openalex.org/W4323275281","https://openalex.org/W4365134815","https://openalex.org/W7165205196"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3175262573","https://openalex.org/W3187755375","https://openalex.org/W4377821794","https://openalex.org/W3089846789","https://openalex.org/W4409434522","https://openalex.org/W4378228390","https://openalex.org/W3094387687","https://openalex.org/W7165205196","https://openalex.org/W4368373981","https://openalex.org/W3087322091"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Excess":[0],"mortality":[1,12,50,65,74,144,153,207,235],"can":[2,222],"be":[3,223],"estimated":[4,76,182],"from":[5,10,209],"crude":[6],"death":[7,53,210],"counts":[8,54,211,251],"or":[9],"age-standardised":[11,266],"rates":[13],"(ASMRs).":[14],"Although":[15],"both":[16,60,123],"approaches":[17,61,124,221],"are":[18,39,245],"widely":[19],"used,":[20],"their":[21,226],"analytical":[22,45],"relationship":[23,46],"and":[24,36,55,59,96,100,145,178,196,212,217,229,242,255],"the":[25,69,107,111,118,134,139,162,174,181,187,220,237],"effects":[26],"of":[27,80,110,117,133,142,161,186,271],"methodological":[28,248],"choices":[29],"such":[30],"as":[31],"standard":[32,89,112,135,238],"population,":[33,239,264],"age-group":[34,91,240],"definition,":[35,241],"baseline":[37,230,243],"selection":[38],"not":[40],"always":[41],"explicitly":[42],"considered.":[43],"The":[44,131,159],"between":[47,219],"relative":[48],"excess":[49,143,152,183,206,234],"based":[51],"on":[52,138],"ASMRs":[56,213],"was":[57,75,146,154],"derived":[58,208],"were":[62,85,103],"applied":[63],"to":[64,115],"in":[66,149,200],"Germany":[67],"during":[68],"COVID19":[70],"pandemic":[71],"2020-2023.":[72],"Expected":[73],"by":[77,225],"linear":[78],"extrapolation":[79],"pre-pandemic":[81,175,188],"trends.":[82],"ASMR":[83,176],"calculations":[84],"repeated":[86],"using":[87],"different":[88],"populations,":[90],"definitions,":[92],"open-ended":[93,163],"age":[94,108,140,164],"groups,":[95],"reference":[97,189,257],"periods.":[98],"Death-count-":[99],"ASMR-based":[101,197],"P-scores":[102],"analytically":[104],"equivalent":[105],"when":[106,151],"distribution":[109,141],"population":[113,119,136],"corresponded":[114],"that":[116],"under":[120],"study.":[121],"Empirically,":[122],"yielded":[125],"closely":[126,202,215],"corresponding":[127,203],"estimates":[128,198,267],"for":[129,259],"Germany.":[130],"effect":[132],"depended":[137],"particularly":[147],"pronounced":[148],"2020,":[150],"concentrated":[155],"at":[156],"older":[157],"ages.":[158],"definition":[160],"group":[165],"had":[166],"an":[167],"additional":[168,273],"effect:":[169],"aggregating":[170],"ages":[171],"80+":[172],"altered":[173],"trend,":[177],"consequently":[179],"changed":[180,199],"mortality.":[184],"Variation":[185],"period":[190],"substantially":[191],"affected":[192],"P-scores,":[193],"but":[194],"death-count-":[195],"a":[201,253,262],"manner.":[204],"Relative":[205],"is":[214],"related,":[216],"differences":[218],"explained":[224],"underlying":[227],"weighting":[228],"assumptions.":[231,274],"For":[232],"trend-based":[233],"estimation,":[236],"specification":[244],"therefore":[246],"integral":[247],"choices.":[249],"Death":[250],"provide":[252],"simple":[254],"transparent":[256],"measure":[258],"analyses":[260],"within":[261],"single":[263],"whereas":[265],"require":[268],"careful":[269],"consideration":[270],"these":[272]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-11T12:16:26.678958","created_date":"2026-11-10T00:00:00"}