{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7225467628","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.24035144","title":"How Many Regions Does a Nonlinear Muskingum Model Need? Bayesian Selection and Flood Validation","display_name":"How Many Regions Does a Nonlinear Muskingum Model Need? Bayesian Selection and Flood Validation","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-11-07","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7225467628","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.24035144"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.24035144","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.24035144","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.24035144","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.24035144","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5025759661","display_name":"G\u00fcrhan G\u00fcrarslan","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9796-3334","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9796-3334"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I48843708","display_name":"Pamukkale University","ror":"https://ror.org/01etz1309","country_code":"TR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I48843708"]}],"countries":["TR"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Gurarslan, Gurhan","raw_affiliation_strings":["Pamukkale University"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9796-3334","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Pamukkale University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I48843708"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5025759661"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I48843708"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.0,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10330","display_name":"Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies","score":0.9937000274658203,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2312","display_name":"Water Science and Technology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10330","display_name":"Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies","score":0.9937000274658203,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2312","display_name":"Water Science and Technology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10930","display_name":"Flood Risk Assessment and Management","score":0.0020000000949949026,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10969","display_name":"Water resources management and optimization","score":0.0006000000284984708,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2312","display_name":"Water Science and Technology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/nonlinear-muskingum-model","display_name":"nonlinear Muskingum model","score":0.9900000095367432},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/lateral-flow","display_name":"lateral flow","score":0.7540000081062317},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-model-selection","display_name":"Bayesian model selection","score":0.8140000104904175},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-model-averaging","display_name":"Bayesian model averaging","score":0.8479999899864197},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bridge-sampling","display_name":"bridge sampling","score":0.6779999732971191},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/flood-routing","display_name":"flood routing","score":0.5070000290870667},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/model-calibration","display_name":"model calibration","score":0.6470000147819519},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/irrigation-and-drainage-channels","display_name":"irrigation and drainage channels","score":0.35100001096725464}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165838908","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q736777","display_name":"Calibration","level":2,"score":0.6252999901771545},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.6097000241279602},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C74256435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q134052","display_name":"Flood myth","level":2,"score":0.5273000001907349},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C155512373","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q287450","display_name":"Residual","level":2,"score":0.4846999943256378},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776132308","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11070850","display_name":"Inflow","level":2,"score":0.4794999957084656},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.4546999931335449},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C158622935","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q660848","display_name":"Nonlinear system","level":2,"score":0.44679999351501465},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C57830394","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q278079","display_name":"Posterior probability","level":3,"score":0.4352000057697296},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780129039","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1931107","display_name":"Section (typography)","level":2,"score":0.42399999499320984},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177769412","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q278090","display_name":"Prior probability","level":3,"score":0.4156999886035919},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C81917197","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q628760","display_name":"Selection (genetic algorithm)","level":2,"score":0.39989998936653137},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.39730000495910645},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.38659998774528503},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C160234255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812535","display_name":"Bayesian inference","level":3,"score":0.37369999289512634},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42812","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1082910","display_name":"Partition (number theory)","level":2,"score":0.3465000092983246},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.3463999927043915},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C122770356","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1656753","display_name":"Identifiability","level":2,"score":0.31839999556541443},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C93959086","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6888345","display_name":"Model selection","level":2,"score":0.3100999891757965},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C196083921","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7915758","display_name":"Variance (accounting)","level":2,"score":0.27869999408721924},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11413529","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8366","display_name":"Algorithm","level":1,"score":0.27799999713897705},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C32230216","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7882499","display_name":"Uncertainty quantification","level":2,"score":0.27570000290870667},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C76886044","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2883300","display_name":"Hydrology (agriculture)","level":2,"score":0.2711000144481659},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C88626702","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1128903","display_name":"Continuation","level":2,"score":0.2596000134944916},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C141513077","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q378542","display_name":"Independent and identically distributed random variables","level":3,"score":0.2547999918460846},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C38349280","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1434290","display_name":"Flow (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.2533000111579895},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C150921843","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1170431","display_name":"Resampling","level":2,"score":0.2529999911785126}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.24035144","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.24035144","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.24035144","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.24035145","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.24035145","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.24035145","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.24035144","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.24035144","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.24035144","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Clean water and sanitation","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/6","score":0.6618000268936157}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2742110658","https://openalex.org/W7164024949","https://openalex.org/W6922430991","https://openalex.org/W4389306876","https://openalex.org/W3045973153","https://openalex.org/W7221534086","https://openalex.org/W2212394216","https://openalex.org/W6959737830","https://openalex.org/W1941858258","https://openalex.org/W4206087658"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"This":[0],"record":[1,181],"contains":[2],"the":[3,7,28,43,118,137,142,159,166,175,183],"Supplemental":[4],"Materials":[5],"of":[6,31,52,117,136,139,144,154,158,165],"paper":[8,184],"\u201cHow":[9],"Many":[10],"Regions":[11],"Does":[12],"a":[13],"Nonlinear":[14],"Muskingum":[15,46],"Model":[16],"Need?":[17],"Bayesian":[18,87],"Selection":[19],"and":[20,33,54,82,111,141,162,177],"Flood":[21],"Validation\u201d":[22],"by":[23,79,86],"G.":[24],"Gurarslan":[25,55],"(submitted":[26],"to":[27,62,179],"ASCE":[29],"Journal":[30],"Irrigation":[32],"Drainage":[34],"Engineering).":[35],"The":[36,90,103],"study":[37],"asks":[38],"how":[39],"many":[40],"inflow":[41],"sub-regions":[42],"partitioned":[44],"nonlinear":[45],"model":[47,88],"with":[48,73,146],"lateral":[49],"flow":[50],"(NLMM-L)":[51],"Ayvaz":[53],"(2017)":[56],"needs.":[57],"Admissible":[58],"partitions":[59,83],"are":[60,68,84,93],"enumerated":[61],"obtain":[63],"global":[64],"calibration":[65],"optima.":[66],"Parameters":[67],"sampled":[69],"within":[70],"each":[71],"partition":[72,75],"DREAM,":[74],"evidence":[76],"is":[77,185],"estimated":[78],"bridge":[80],"sampling,":[81],"combined":[85],"averaging.":[89],"selected":[91],"models":[92],"tested":[94],"on":[95],"an":[96],"independent":[97],"River":[98,121],"Wye":[99,122],"flood":[100,123,169],"(January":[101],"1969).":[102],"file":[104],"supplemental_materials_JIDE.pdf":[105],"contains:":[106],"Section":[107,114,124],"S1:":[108],"Sampler":[109],"settings":[110],"error-model":[112],"priors":[113],"S2:":[115],"Digitization":[116],"January":[119,167],"1969":[120,168],"S3:":[125],"Residual":[126],"diagnostics":[127],"Tables":[128],"S1\u2013S4:":[129],"Posterior":[130],"parameters,":[131],"posterior":[132,134,156],"summaries,":[133],"probabilities":[135],"number":[138,153],"sub-regions,":[140,155],"comparison":[143],"NLMM-L":[145],"LMM-L":[147],"Figs.":[148],"S1\u2013S3:":[149],"Calibration":[150],"SSQ":[151],"versus":[152],"distributions":[157],"two-region":[160],"model,":[161],"deterministic":[163],"predictions":[164],"Notation":[170],"list":[171],"We":[172],"will":[173],"add":[174],"code":[176],"data":[178],"this":[180],"after":[182],"accepted.":[186]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-09T13:22:03.289127","created_date":"2026-11-08T00:00:00"}