{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7225433912","doi":"https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.15011810/v1","title":"Structured expert judgement projections of the ice-sheet contribution to future sea-level rise","display_name":"Structured expert judgement projections of the ice-sheet contribution to future sea-level rise","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-11-06","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7225433912","doi":"https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.15011810/v1"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.22541/essoar.15011810/v1","doi":"https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.15011810/v1","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.15011810/v1","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5061718318","display_name":"Robert E. Kopp","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4016-9428","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4016-9428","https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2800-6466"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I102322142","display_name":"Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey","ror":"https://ror.org/05vt9qd57","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102322142"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Robert E Kopp","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences and Rutgers Climate & Energy Institute, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, New Brunswick, NJ, United States"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4016-9428","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences and Rutgers Climate & Energy Institute, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, New Brunswick, NJ, United States","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102322142"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5068572132","display_name":"Jonathan Louis Bamber","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2280-2819","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2280-2819"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I36234482","display_name":"University of Bristol","ror":"https://ror.org/0524sp257","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I36234482"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jonathan L. Bamber","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol, United Kingdom [GB]"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2280-2819","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol, United Kingdom [GB]","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I36234482"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5082082741","display_name":"Michael Oppenheimer","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9708-5914","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9708-5914"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I20089843","display_name":"Princeton University","ror":"https://ror.org/00hx57361","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I20089843"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4405268937","display_name":"High Meadows Environmental Institute","ror":"https://ror.org/02hgay921","country_code":"US","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4405268937"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Michael Oppenheimer","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Geosciences, School of Public & International Affairs, and High Meadow Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, Princeton, NJ, United States [US]"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9708-5914","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Geosciences, School of Public & International Affairs, and High Meadow Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, Princeton, NJ, United States [US]","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I20089843","https://openalex.org/I4405268937"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5084899345","display_name":"Elizabeth H. Davis","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9468-8990","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9468-8990"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I102322142","display_name":"Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey","ror":"https://ror.org/05vt9qd57","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102322142"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Elizabeth H. Davis","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences and Rutgers Climate & Energy Institute, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, New Brunswick, NJ, United States"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences and Rutgers Climate & Energy Institute, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, New Brunswick, NJ, United States","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102322142"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5066984300","display_name":"Gabriela F. Nane","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3614-1820","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3614-1820"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I98358874","display_name":"Delft University of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/02e2c7k09","country_code":"NL","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I98358874"]}],"countries":["NL"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Gabriela F Nane","raw_affiliation_strings":["Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics, Technische Universiteit Delft , Delft, 2628 CD, Delft, Netherlands"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics, Technische Universiteit Delft , Delft, 2628 CD, Delft, Netherlands","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I98358874"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5161117218","display_name":"Roger Cooke","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2801278523","display_name":"Resources For The Future","ror":"https://ror.org/04qpegs24","country_code":"US","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2801278523"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Roger Cooke","raw_affiliation_strings":["Resources For The Future, 209, washinhgton, Washington, DC, United States"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Resources For The Future, 209, washinhgton, Washington, DC, United States","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2801278523"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5017794389","display_name":"Willy P. Aspinall","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6014-6042","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6014-6042","https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1167-8290"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I36234482","display_name":"University of Bristol","ror":"https://ror.org/0524sp257","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I36234482"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"William P. Aspinall","raw_affiliation_strings":["Aspinall Consulting Ltd","School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, High Street, Tisbury, Bristol, United Kingdom"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6014-6042","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Aspinall Consulting Ltd","institution_ids":[]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, High Street, Tisbury, Bristol, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I36234482"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5080200362","display_name":"Surendra Adhikari","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1021-6860","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1021-6860"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1334627681","display_name":"Jet Propulsion Laboratory","ror":"https://ror.org/027k65916","country_code":"US","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I122411786","https://openalex.org/I1334627681","https://openalex.org/I4210124779"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Surendra Adhikari","raw_affiliation_strings":["Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Pasadena, CA, United States"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1021-6860","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Pasadena, CA, United States","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1334627681"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5108025348","display_name":"Denis Felikson","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3785-5112","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3785-5112"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1306266525","display_name":"Goddard Space Flight Center","ror":"https://ror.org/0171mag52","country_code":"US","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1306266525","https://openalex.org/I4210124779"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Denis Felikson","raw_affiliation_strings":["NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Code 615, Building 33, Room A209, Greenbelt, Greenbelt, MD, United States [US]"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3785-5112","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Code 615, Building 33, Room A209, Greenbelt, Greenbelt, MD, United States [US]","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1306266525"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5057752462","display_name":"Edward Hanna","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8683-182X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8683-182X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I51532219","display_name":"University of Lincoln","ror":"https://ror.org/03yeq9x20","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I51532219"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Edward Hanna","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Lincoln, Sheffield, S10 2TN, Brayford Pool, Lincoln, United Kingdom"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Lincoln, Sheffield, S10 2TN, Brayford Pool, Lincoln, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I51532219"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5087836361","display_name":"Trevor R. Hillebrand","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3535-1540","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3535-1540"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1343871089","display_name":"Los Alamos National Laboratory","ror":"https://ror.org/01e41cf67","country_code":"US","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1330989302","https://openalex.org/I1343871089","https://openalex.org/I198811213","https://openalex.org/I4210120050"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Trevor Hillebrand","raw_affiliation_strings":["Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, Los Alamos, NM, United States"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3535-1540","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, Los Alamos, NM, United States","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1343871089"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5041611398","display_name":"Anders Levermann","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4432-4704","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4432-4704"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I60200437","display_name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research","ror":"https://ror.org/03e8s1d88","country_code":"DE","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I315704651","https://openalex.org/I60200437"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Anders Levermann","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Complexity Sciences, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, 14473, Potsdam, Germany"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4432-4704","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Complexity Sciences, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, 14473, Potsdam, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I60200437"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5091477268","display_name":"Mathieu Morlighem","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5219-1310","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5219-1310"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I107672454","display_name":"Dartmouth College","ror":"https://ror.org/049s0rh22","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I107672454"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mathieu Morlighem","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire, Hanover, NH, United States [US]"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5219-1310","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire, Hanover, NH, United States [US]","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I107672454"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5078036722","display_name":"Ronja Reese","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7625-040X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7625-040X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I32394136","display_name":"Northumbria University","ror":"https://ror.org/049e6bc10","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I32394136"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ronja Reese","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Geography and Natural Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle, Newcastle, United Kingdom"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7625-040X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Geography and Natural Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle, Newcastle, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I32394136"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5054685597","display_name":"Eric J. Rignot","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3366-0481","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3366-0481"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1334627681","display_name":"Jet Propulsion Laboratory","ror":"https://ror.org/027k65916","country_code":"US","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I122411786","https://openalex.org/I1334627681","https://openalex.org/I4210124779"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I204250578","display_name":"University of California, Irvine","ror":"https://ror.org/04gyf1771","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I204250578"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Eric Rignot","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Earth and Space Science and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, Irvine, CA, United States","Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Pasadena, CA, United States"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3366-0481","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Earth and Space Science and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, Irvine, CA, United States","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I204250578"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Pasadena, CA, United States","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1334627681"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5073975634","display_name":"T. A. Scambos","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4268-6322","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4268-6322"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I161675122","display_name":"Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences","ror":"https://ror.org/00bdqav06","country_code":"US","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1308126019","https://openalex.org/I1343035065","https://openalex.org/I161675122","https://openalex.org/I188538660","https://openalex.org/I2802992173"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I188538660","display_name":"University of Colorado Boulder","ror":"https://ror.org/02ttsq026","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I188538660"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ted Scambos","raw_affiliation_strings":["ESOC / CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder, University of Colorado, Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4268-6322","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"ESOC / CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder, University of Colorado, Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I161675122","https://openalex.org/I188538660"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5046027378","display_name":"Helene L. Seroussi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9201-1644","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9201-1644"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I107672454","display_name":"Dartmouth College","ror":"https://ror.org/049s0rh22","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I107672454"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Helene Seroussi","raw_affiliation_strings":["Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire, Hanover, NH, United States"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9201-1644","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire, Hanover, NH, United States","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I107672454"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5003368988","display_name":"Chris R. Stokes","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3355-1573","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3355-1573"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I190082696","display_name":"Durham University","ror":"https://ror.org/01v29qb04","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I190082696"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Chris R Stokes","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Geography, University of Durham, Durham, Durham, Durham, United Kingdom"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3355-1573","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Geography, University of Durham, Durham, Durham, Durham, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I190082696"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5001499191","display_name":"Luke D. Trusel","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7792-6173","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7792-6173"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I130769515","display_name":"Pennsylvania State University","ror":"https://ror.org/04p491231","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I130769515"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Luke D Trusel","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Geography, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, University Park, PA, United States"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7792-6173","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Geography, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, University Park, PA, United States","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I130769515"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5061959103","display_name":"I. Velicogna","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9020-1898","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9020-1898"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1334627681","display_name":"Jet Propulsion Laboratory","ror":"https://ror.org/027k65916","country_code":"US","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I122411786","https://openalex.org/I1334627681","https://openalex.org/I4210124779"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I204250578","display_name":"University of California, Irvine","ror":"https://ror.org/04gyf1771","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I204250578"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Isabella Velicogna","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Earth and Space Science and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, Irvine, CA, United States","Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Pasadena, CA, United States"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9020-1898","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Earth and Space Science and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, Irvine, CA, United States","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I204250578"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Pasadena, CA, United States","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1334627681"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":4,"institutions_distinct_count":18,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10644","display_name":"Cryospheric studies and observations","score":0.9506999850273132,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10644","display_name":"Cryospheric studies and observations","score":0.9506999850273132,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10017","display_name":"Geology and Paleoclimatology Research","score":0.0210999995470047,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":0.005900000222027302,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/greenland-ice-sheet","display_name":"Greenland ice sheet","score":0.8259999752044678},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/antarctic-ice-sheet","display_name":"Antarctic ice sheet","score":0.9589999914169312},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/global-mean-sea-level","display_name":"global mean sea level","score":0.8519999980926514},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ssp2-4-5","display_name":"SSP2-4.5","score":0.8050000071525574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/tail-dependence","display_name":"tail dependence","score":0.6320000290870667},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/deep-uncertainty","display_name":"deep uncertainty","score":0.6370000243186951}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776548248","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12621536","display_name":"Judgement","level":2,"score":0.6687999963760376},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C72161134","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5421219","display_name":"Expert elicitation","level":2,"score":0.663100004196167},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132651083","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Climate change","level":2,"score":0.6568999886512756},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.5429999828338623},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C137800194","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11713455","display_name":"Interpolation (computer graphics)","level":3,"score":0.47620001435279846},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.4474000036716461},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C123750103","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12599","display_name":"Ice sheet","level":2,"score":0.42969998717308044},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49204034","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52139","display_name":"Climatology","level":1,"score":0.4174000024795532},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.3555999994277954},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C168754636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q620920","display_name":"Climate model","level":3,"score":0.33820000290870667},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.32820001244544983},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C115343472","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Global warming","level":3,"score":0.31630000472068787},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.3160000145435333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778851808","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q260607","display_name":"Climate change adaptation","level":3,"score":0.2996000051498413},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15098985","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q179918","display_name":"Permafrost","level":2,"score":0.2971999943256378},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.27459999918937683},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C96250715","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q965330","display_name":"Estimation","level":2,"score":0.2574999928474426},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C100253034","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q196372","display_name":"Systematic error","level":2,"score":0.2538999915122986}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.22541/essoar.15011810/v1","doi":"https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.15011810/v1","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.15011810/v1","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Climate action","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","score":1.0}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3090624772","https://openalex.org/W2945377850","https://openalex.org/W6902338038","https://openalex.org/W2095207587","https://openalex.org/W4408433489","https://openalex.org/W3041965343","https://openalex.org/W3103875307","https://openalex.org/W2022881146","https://openalex.org/W4300594313","https://openalex.org/W3022071453"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Structured":[0],"expert":[1],"judgement":[2],"(SEJ)":[3],"is":[4,57],"an":[5],"established":[6],"method":[7],"for":[8,176,216,238],"estimating":[9],"the":[10,47,131,236,243],"likelihood":[11],"of":[12,40,113,137,185],"deeply":[13],"uncertain":[14,210],"outcomes,":[15],"such":[16],"as":[17],"century-to-multicentury":[18],"ice-sheet":[19,26,52,221],"changes.":[20],"We":[21],"used":[22],"SEJ":[23],"to":[24,54,60,68,80,83,91,97,140,147,155,188,195,203],"estimate":[25],"changes":[27],"through":[28],"2300":[29,207],"under":[30,73,135,233,246],"scenarios":[31],"stabilizing":[32],"in":[33,117,173,242],"2100":[34,64,87,177,227],"at":[35],"2\u00b0C,":[36],"3.5\u00b0C,":[37],"and":[38,65,88,152,178,200,228],"5\u00b0C":[39,75],"global":[41],"warming.":[42],"Under":[43],"a":[44,74,98,110,114,127],"2\u00b0C":[45],"scenario,":[46,76],"projected":[48],"median":[49,180],"(5th\u201395th":[50],"percentile)":[51],"contribution":[53,129],"GMSL":[55,128,240],"change":[56],"23":[58],"(-16":[59],"76)":[61],"cm":[62,70,85,93,142,149,157,190,197,205],"by":[63,71,86,94,143,150,158,191,198,206,226,231],"131":[66],"(-45":[67],"420)":[69],"2300;":[72],"these":[77],"values":[78],"rise":[79,241],"42":[81],"(-34":[82,187],"181)":[84],"365":[89],"(10":[90],"1120)":[92],"2300.":[95],"Relative":[96],"comparable":[99],"2018":[100],"study,":[101],"upper-end":[102],"projections":[103,108,184],"are":[104,208],"similar":[105],"while":[106],"low-end":[107],"reflect":[109],"greater":[111],"probability":[112],"significant":[115],"increase":[116],"Antarctic":[118],"accumulation.":[119],"Combining":[120],"elicitation":[121],"results":[122],"with":[123],"probabilistic":[124],"interpolation":[125],"indicates":[126],"from":[130],"Greenland":[132],"ice":[133],"sheet":[134],"SSP2-4.5":[136],"16":[138],"(-4":[139],"43)":[141],"2100,":[144,192],"33":[145],"(-6":[146],"93)":[148],"2150,":[151,179,199],"77":[153],"(-17":[154],"234)":[156],"2300,":[159],"exceeding":[160],"corresponding":[161],"Intergovernmental":[162],"Panel":[163],"on":[164],"Climate":[165],"Change":[166],"Sixth":[167],"Assessment":[168],"Report":[169],"(AR6)":[170],"medium-confidence":[171,213],"estimates":[172],"uncertainty":[174],"and,":[175],"values.":[181],"For":[182],"Antarctica,":[183],"11":[186],"85)":[189],"26":[193],"(-54":[194],"191)":[196],"105":[201],"(-84":[202],"532)":[204],"more":[209],"than":[211],"AR6":[212],"projections.":[214],"Accounting":[215],"tail":[217],"dependence,":[218],"95th-percentile":[219],"total":[220],"contributions":[222],"reach":[223],"1.1":[224],"m":[225,230],"2.5":[229],"2150":[232],"SSP2-4.5,":[234],"highlighting":[235],"potential":[237],"multi-meter":[239],"22nd":[244],"century":[245],"intermediate":[247],"emissions.":[248]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-10T11:39:43.021295","created_date":"2026-11-07T00:00:00"}
