{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7225423664","doi":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-11628631/v1","title":"Seasonal memory in Hudson Bay sea ice: autumn freeze-up predicts spring break-up, 1990\u20132026","display_name":"Seasonal memory in Hudson Bay sea ice: autumn freeze-up predicts spring break-up, 1990\u20132026","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-11-06","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7225423664","doi":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-11628631/v1"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-11628631/v1","doi":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-11628631/v1","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-11628631/v1","pdf_url":"https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-11628631/latest.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525896","display_name":"Research Square","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Research Square","raw_type":"posted-content"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-11628631/latest.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5100573573","display_name":"Leo Wei","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2462-155X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2462-155X"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Leo Wei","raw_affiliation_strings":["Beijing City International School"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2462-155X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Beijing City International School","institution_ids":[]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5100573573"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11459","display_name":"Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics","score":0.9961000084877014,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11459","display_name":"Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics","score":0.9961000084877014,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10644","display_name":"Cryospheric studies and observations","score":0.0010000000474974513,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":0.0008999999845400453,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sea-ice-thinning","display_name":"sea ice thinning","score":0.5680000185966492},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climate-change-attribution","display_name":"climate change attribution","score":0.3490000069141388},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sea-ice-formation","display_name":"sea ice formation","score":0.3400000035762787},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/lead-time","display_name":"lead time","score":0.3479999899864197}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C115880899","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1124247","display_name":"Bay","level":2,"score":0.9020000100135803},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778712887","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q102836","display_name":"Spring (device)","level":2,"score":0.6730999946594238},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.5896999835968018},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C136894858","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q213926","display_name":"Sea ice","level":2,"score":0.506600022315979},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111368507","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43518","display_name":"Oceanography","level":1,"score":0.5041000247001648},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C110872660","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37813","display_name":"Ecosystem","level":2,"score":0.48840001225471497},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49204034","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52139","display_name":"Climatology","level":1,"score":0.48429998755455017},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C125403950","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2111082","display_name":"Seasonality","level":2,"score":0.41269999742507935},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132651083","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Climate change","level":2,"score":0.36910000443458557},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781353100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1266974","display_name":"Thinning","level":2,"score":0.3578999936580658},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C137660486","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q732240","display_name":"Growing season","level":2,"score":0.3409999907016754},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C19269812","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q26540","display_name":"Satellite","level":2,"score":0.3292999863624573},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C100970517","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52107","display_name":"Physical geography","level":1,"score":0.32010000944137573},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778835443","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39061","display_name":"Northern Hemisphere","level":2,"score":0.3133000135421753},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C91586092","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q757520","display_name":"Atmospheric sciences","level":1,"score":0.30169999599456787},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2991752516","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1313","display_name":"Summer season","level":2,"score":0.3003000020980835},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C197435368","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q493109","display_name":"Cryosphere","level":3,"score":0.2994000017642975},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134097258","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1507383","display_name":"Sea surface temperature","level":2,"score":0.29670000076293945},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127313418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1069","display_name":"Geology","level":0,"score":0.2939999997615814},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C64892901","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6813731","display_name":"Melt pond","level":5,"score":0.2921000123023987},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2983363897","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q845339","display_name":"Air temperature","level":2,"score":0.28200000524520874},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C161798024","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3651008","display_name":"Arctic ice pack","level":3,"score":0.27790001034736633},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C115343472","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Global warming","level":3,"score":0.25839999318122864},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C607359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q845339","display_name":"Atmospheric temperature","level":2,"score":0.2533999979496002},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3019152653","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186290","display_name":"Linear relationship","level":2,"score":0.25200000405311584}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-11628631/v1","doi":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-11628631/v1","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-11628631/v1","pdf_url":"https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-11628631/latest.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525896","display_name":"Research Square","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Research Square","raw_type":"posted-content"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-11628631/v1","doi":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-11628631/v1","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-11628631/v1","pdf_url":"https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-11628631/latest.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525896","display_name":"Research Square","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Research Square","raw_type":"posted-content"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Climate action","score":0.5351999998092651,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7225423664.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7225423664.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":13,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1678356000","https://openalex.org/W1922566919","https://openalex.org/W1963482020","https://openalex.org/W2018764772","https://openalex.org/W2103164730","https://openalex.org/W2134591556","https://openalex.org/W2157238888","https://openalex.org/W2159841501","https://openalex.org/W2168373356","https://openalex.org/W2318680928","https://openalex.org/W2911964244","https://openalex.org/W2946160190","https://openalex.org/W3123436326"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2163520035","https://openalex.org/W4403610218","https://openalex.org/W2182323626","https://openalex.org/W2211160171","https://openalex.org/W4400651937","https://openalex.org/W2133390405","https://openalex.org/W2032442421","https://openalex.org/W1975984731","https://openalex.org/W2033594013","https://openalex.org/W72702157"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"Hudson":[1,241],"Bay":[2],"is":[3,53,98,141,180,226,245],"one":[4],"of":[5,18,50,73,112,136,184,215,236,267],"the":[6,12,16,23,30,40,59,70,74,85,91,96,125,131,224,237,260],"largest":[7],"seasonally":[8],"ice-covered":[9],"seas":[10],"in":[11,58,61,123,182,194,198],"Northern":[13],"Hemisphere,":[14],"and":[15,29,38,155,170,188,228,253],"timing":[17],"its":[19,26],"ice":[20,110,116,255],"season":[21,42,60,244],"structures":[22],"regional":[24],"climate,":[25],"marine":[27],"ecosystems":[28],"communities":[31],"that":[32,51,69,79,223],"depend":[33],"on":[34,93],"them.":[35],"Between":[36],"1990":[37],"2026":[39],"ice-free":[41,243],"lengthened":[43],"by":[44,103],"6.8":[45],"days":[46,105,146],"per":[47,106,147],"decade.":[48,107],"Most":[49],"change":[52],"conventionally":[54],"attributed":[55],"to":[56,196],"warming":[57],"which":[62,94,124],"it":[63],"occurs,":[64],"but":[65],"here":[66],"we":[67,118],"show":[68],"spring":[71,137,239,262],"half":[72,95],"signal":[75],"cannot":[76],"be":[77],"explained":[78],"way:":[80],"April\u2013May":[81],"air":[82],"temperature":[83],"over":[84],"bay":[86,97],"has":[87,101,189],"not":[88],"risen,":[89],"yet":[90],"date":[92,129],"open":[99],"water":[100],"advanced":[102],"2.8":[104],"Using":[108],"37":[109],"seasons":[111],"daily":[113],"25-km":[114],"satellite":[115],"concentration,":[117],"develop":[119],"a":[120,249,264],"seasonal-memory":[121],"model":[122,207],"preceding":[126],"autumn's":[127],"freeze-up":[128,231],"predicts":[130],"following":[132,261],"spring's":[133],"break-up":[134],"independently":[135],"temperature.":[138],"The":[139,177],"relationship":[140,225],"strong":[142],"(\u03b2":[143,159,167,174],"=":[144,153,160,163,168,175,218],"\u22120.50":[145],"day,":[148],"p":[149,162],"<":[150],"0.001,":[151],"R\u00b2":[152],"0.59)":[154],"survives":[156],"first-":[157],"differencing":[158],"\u22120.29,":[161],"0.025),":[164],"instrumental-variable":[165],"estimation":[166],"\u22120.58)":[169],"double":[171],"machine":[172],"learning":[173],"\u22120.40).":[176],"memory":[178],"coefficient":[179],"negative":[181],"89%":[183],"1,428":[185],"grid":[186],"cells":[187],"grown":[190],"from":[191],"about":[192,259],"\u22120.15":[193],"1990\u20132007":[195],"\u22120.61":[197],"2008\u20132026,":[199],"consistent":[200],"with":[201,211],"thinning":[202],"ice.":[203],"A":[204],"two-predictor":[205],"physical":[206],"outperforms":[208],"gradient":[209],"boosting":[210],"eleven":[212],"predictors":[213],"out":[214],"sample":[216],"(R\u00b2":[217],"0.48":[219],"versus":[220],"0.36),":[221],"indicating":[222],"additive":[227],"low-dimensional.":[229],"Autumn":[230],"accounts":[232],"for":[233],"roughly":[234],"70%":[235],"observed":[238],"advance.":[240],"Bay's":[242],"therefore":[246],"lengthening":[247],"as":[248],"coupled":[250],"two-season":[251],"process,":[252],"autumn":[254],"formation":[256],"carries":[257],"information":[258],"at":[263],"lead":[265],"time":[266],"six":[268],"months.":[269]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-09T13:22:03.289127","created_date":"2026-11-07T00:00:00"}
