{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7225345146","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19110895","title":"From Static Risk Registers to Phase-Adaptive Risk Analytics: A Market-to-Credit Monitoring Framework for Renewable Energy Projects in Bulgaria","display_name":"From Static Risk Registers to Phase-Adaptive Risk Analytics: A Market-to-Credit Monitoring Framework for Renewable Energy Projects in Bulgaria","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-11-05","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7225345146","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19110895"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/jrfm19110895","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19110895","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19110895","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210217951","display_name":"Journal of risk and financial management","issn_l":"1911-8066","issn":["1911-8066","1911-8074"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","poland-20","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Risk and Financial Management","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"hybrid","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19110895","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5160739051","display_name":"Ivelina Shtereva","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I211070993","display_name":"University of National and World Economy","ror":"https://ror.org/017ph0934","country_code":"BG","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I211070993"]}],"countries":["BG"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Ivelina Shtereva","raw_affiliation_strings":["Economic of infrastructure Faculty, University of National and World Economy, 1700 Sofia, Bulgaria"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Economic of infrastructure Faculty, University of National and World Economy, 1700 Sofia, Bulgaria","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I211070993"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5114235634","display_name":"Daniel Yordanov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1235-5891","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1235-5891"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I211070993","display_name":"University of National and World Economy","ror":"https://ror.org/017ph0934","country_code":"BG","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I211070993"]}],"countries":["BG"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Daniel Yordanov","raw_affiliation_strings":["Economic of infrastructure Faculty, University of National and World Economy, 1700 Sofia, Bulgaria"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1235-5891","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Economic of infrastructure Faculty, University of National and World Economy, 1700 Sofia, Bulgaria","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I211070993"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5032118790","display_name":"Nikolay Sterev","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8262-3241","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8262-3241"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I211070993","display_name":"University of National and World Economy","ror":"https://ror.org/017ph0934","country_code":"BG","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I211070993"]}],"countries":["BG"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Nikolay Sterev","raw_affiliation_strings":["Business Faculty, University of National and World Economy, 1700 Sofia, Bulgaria"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Business Faculty, University of National and World Economy, 1700 Sofia, Bulgaria","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I211070993"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5160739051"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I211070993"],"apc_list":{"value":1400,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":1689},"apc_paid":{"value":1400,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":1689},"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.0,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"19","issue":"11","first_page":"895","last_page":"895"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11976","display_name":"Capital Investment and Risk Analysis","score":0.5859000086784363,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11976","display_name":"Capital Investment and Risk Analysis","score":0.5859000086784363,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13146","display_name":"Sustainable Finance and Green Bonds","score":0.11819999665021896,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14481","display_name":"Renewable Energy and Sustainability","score":0.046300001442432404,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2105","display_name":"Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/21","display_name":"Energy"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/solar-photovoltaic-projects","display_name":"solar photovoltaic projects","score":0.7329999804496765},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/day-ahead-electricity-prices","display_name":"day-ahead electricity prices","score":0.8289999961853027},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/capacity-coefficient","display_name":"capacity coefficient","score":0.7269999980926514},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/debt-service-coverage-ratio","display_name":"debt service coverage ratio","score":0.8859999775886536},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/early-warning-indicators","display_name":"early warning indicators","score":0.5870000123977661},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/capture-rate","display_name":"capture rate","score":0.47600001096725464},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bulgaria","display_name":"Bulgaria","score":0.5849999785423279}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C38935604","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4330363","display_name":"Stylized fact","level":2,"score":0.7436000108718872},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C188573790","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12705","display_name":"Renewable energy","level":2,"score":0.6284999847412109},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C76178495","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4808784","display_name":"Asset (computer security)","level":2,"score":0.49549999833106995},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.4812999963760376},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.4510999917984009},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134560507","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q753291","display_name":"Environmental economics","level":1,"score":0.4478999972343445},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C198531522","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q485146","display_name":"Sample (material)","level":2,"score":0.44699999690055847},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C171562969","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1713926","display_name":"Debt service coverage ratio","level":4,"score":0.42829999327659607},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185798385","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1161707","display_name":"Benchmark (surveying)","level":2,"score":0.4205000102519989},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C163428354","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1047513","display_name":"Cash flow","level":2,"score":0.4189000129699707},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.40380001068115234},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162118730","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1128453","display_name":"Actuarial science","level":1,"score":0.3935000002384186},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C120527767","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3196867","display_name":"Debt","level":2,"score":0.3878999948501587},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C10138342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43015","display_name":"Finance","level":1,"score":0.36489999294281006},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C202552767","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1901350","display_name":"Market value","level":2,"score":0.3395000100135803},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11489865","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q944806","display_name":"Operational risk","level":3,"score":0.3325999975204468},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C73858035","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1164550","display_name":"Market risk","level":2,"score":0.3276999890804291},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C96250715","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q965330","display_name":"Estimation","level":2,"score":0.3260999917984009},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C12725497","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q810247","display_name":"Baseline (sea)","level":2,"score":0.3257000148296356},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C5496284","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5420856","display_name":"Expected shortfall","level":3,"score":0.3249000012874603},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778083465","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q693464","display_name":"Cash","level":2,"score":0.3215999901294708},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778114724","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1365583","display_name":"Bad debt","level":3,"score":0.3188999891281128},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780378061","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25351891","display_name":"Service (business)","level":2,"score":0.31380000710487366},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C64112148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160151","display_name":"Market price","level":2,"score":0.3100000023841858},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C94128290","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q963287","display_name":"Value at risk","level":3,"score":0.299699991941452},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18785705","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1931373","display_name":"Scenario analysis","level":2,"score":0.2973000109195709},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C78600449","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43302","display_name":"Wind power","level":2,"score":0.29670000076293945},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.29580000042915344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C182306322","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1779371","display_name":"Order (exchange)","level":2,"score":0.29190000891685486},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151406439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186588","display_name":"Time series","level":2,"score":0.288100004196167},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C195487862","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q850210","display_name":"Revenue","level":2,"score":0.2770000100135803},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C114118609","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3036837","display_name":"Market data","level":2,"score":0.27469998598098755},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776291640","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2912517","display_name":"Value (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.27219998836517334},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C175223733","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1047888","display_name":"Spot contract","level":3,"score":0.27079999446868896},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C76073288","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1337875","display_name":"Financial risk","level":2,"score":0.2680000066757202},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165064840","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1321061","display_name":"Matching (statistics)","level":2,"score":0.266400009393692},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151541453","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q523022","display_name":"Risk premium","level":2,"score":0.25699999928474426},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779201015","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1308919","display_name":"Stress test","level":2,"score":0.25189998745918274},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C175025494","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q179179","display_name":"Interest rate","level":2,"score":0.25130000710487366}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.3390/jrfm19110895","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19110895","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19110895","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210217951","display_name":"Journal of risk and financial management","issn_l":"1911-8066","issn":["1911-8066","1911-8074"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","poland-20","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Risk and Financial Management","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/jrfm19110895","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19110895","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19110895","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210217951","display_name":"Journal of risk and financial management","issn_l":"1911-8066","issn":["1911-8066","1911-8074"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","poland-20","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Risk and Financial Management","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","score":0.9786999821662903,"display_name":"Climate action"},{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/7","score":0.878000020980835,"display_name":"Affordable and clean energy"},{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/9","score":0.5378999710083008,"display_name":"Industry, innovation and infrastructure"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":68,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W827305535","https://openalex.org/W1488881369","https://openalex.org/W1568559004","https://openalex.org/W1678292474","https://openalex.org/W1983972053","https://openalex.org/W1988825274","https://openalex.org/W2000842688","https://openalex.org/W2016210396","https://openalex.org/W2032952426","https://openalex.org/W2035796329","https://openalex.org/W2042506099","https://openalex.org/W2056671189","https://openalex.org/W2083082947","https://openalex.org/W2095638089","https://openalex.org/W2117178635","https://openalex.org/W2140964565","https://openalex.org/W2144380346","https://openalex.org/W2238996003","https://openalex.org/W2259853171","https://openalex.org/W2276325972","https://openalex.org/W2550826012","https://openalex.org/W2559870436","https://openalex.org/W2602886582","https://openalex.org/W2611082386","https://openalex.org/W2617318058","https://openalex.org/W2768029869","https://openalex.org/W2788000769","https://openalex.org/W2791621544","https://openalex.org/W2899371319","https://openalex.org/W2922633229","https://openalex.org/W2954117584","https://openalex.org/W2979116282","https://openalex.org/W2989370122","https://openalex.org/W3000463950","https://openalex.org/W3007012891","https://openalex.org/W3014473018","https://openalex.org/W3057211280","https://openalex.org/W3082690781","https://openalex.org/W3123354280","https://openalex.org/W3204306846","https://openalex.org/W3208286536","https://openalex.org/W3211586917","https://openalex.org/W4200199921","https://openalex.org/W4220759617","https://openalex.org/W4221004372","https://openalex.org/W4281629928","https://openalex.org/W4281665849","https://openalex.org/W4283028641","https://openalex.org/W4291327732","https://openalex.org/W4322764214","https://openalex.org/W4385374562","https://openalex.org/W4386820126","https://openalex.org/W4388718800","https://openalex.org/W4396571724","https://openalex.org/W4402044629","https://openalex.org/W4402381548","https://openalex.org/W4406822216","https://openalex.org/W4408305029","https://openalex.org/W4408923149","https://openalex.org/W4414806085","https://openalex.org/W4415054105","https://openalex.org/W4415296379","https://openalex.org/W4416273435","https://openalex.org/W4417333673","https://openalex.org/W7161820021","https://openalex.org/W7171541409","https://openalex.org/W7172279155","https://openalex.org/W7204898939"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4213098373","https://openalex.org/W6922477031","https://openalex.org/W7167205914","https://openalex.org/W4385817759","https://openalex.org/W4407828674","https://openalex.org/W7224014320","https://openalex.org/W2112036484","https://openalex.org/W3205700590","https://openalex.org/W7222797465","https://openalex.org/W7214969524"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Static":[0],"risk":[1,41],"registers":[2],"compiled":[3],"at":[4,212,222],"financial":[5],"close":[6],"do":[7,154,233],"not":[8,122,155,166,195,234],"follow":[9],"the":[10,15,71,87,91,103,111,131,161,201,237],"market":[11,29],"conditions":[12],"that":[13,78],"determine":[14],"cash":[16],"flows":[17],"of":[18,58,178,216],"merchant-exposed":[19],"renewable":[20,44,61],"projects.":[21],"This":[22],"study":[23],"asks":[24],"how":[25],"far":[26],"public":[27],"day-ahead":[28,59],"data":[30],"can":[31],"support":[32],"a":[33,75,116,139,157,179,208,213],"phase-adaptive":[34],"decision-support":[35],"and":[36,63,85,94,164,192,218,236],"monitoring":[37,152],"framework":[38,238],"for":[39],"market-to-credit":[40],"in":[42,46,160],"solar-dominated":[43],"projects":[45],"Bulgaria.":[47],"It":[48],"uses":[49],"1096":[50],"daily":[51,104],"observations":[52],"(13":[53],"July":[54,56],"2023\u201312":[55],"2026)":[57],"prices,":[60],"generation,":[62],"interpolated":[64],"installed":[65],"capacity.":[66],"Across":[67],"thirteen":[68],"price":[69,142],"specifications,":[70],"capacity":[72],"coefficient":[73],"is":[74],"conditional":[76],"association":[77,101],"cannot":[79],"be":[80],"separated":[81],"from":[82,144],"time":[83],"trends":[84],"has":[86],"sign":[88],"opposite":[89],"to":[90,146],"merit-order":[92],"hypothesis,":[93],"same-day":[95],"generation":[96,190],"shows":[97],"no":[98,204],"stable":[99],"negative":[100,140],"with":[102,138],"average":[105],"price.":[106],"In":[107],"730":[108],"rolling-origin":[109],"forecasts,":[110],"capacity-and-trend":[112],"model":[113],"improves":[114],"on":[115,123,186,196],"naive":[117],"forecast":[118],"by":[119,134],"5.9%,":[120],"but":[121],"an":[124],"AR(1)":[125],"benchmark,":[126],"whereas":[127],"calendar":[128],"terms":[129],"reduce":[130],"root-mean-squared":[132],"error":[133],"about":[135],"25%.":[136],"Days":[137],"minimum":[141],"rise":[143],"15":[145],"44":[147],"per":[148],"sample":[149,163],"year.":[150],"Candidate":[151],"indicators":[153],"outperform":[156],"seasonal":[158],"benchmark":[159],"test":[162],"are":[165],"validated":[167],"early-warning":[168],"signals.":[169],"A":[170],"rolling":[171],"debt":[172],"service":[173],"coverage":[174],"ratio":[175],"(DSCR)":[176],"analysis":[177],"stylized":[180],"1":[181],"MW":[182],"PV":[183],"asset":[184],"rests":[185],"assumed":[187],"capture":[188,214,224],"rates,":[189],"profiles,":[191],"financing":[193],"terms,":[194],"observed":[197],"project":[198],"data;":[199],"under":[200,227],"base":[202],"structure,":[203],"12-month":[205],"window":[206],"breaches":[207,219],"1.20\u00d7":[209],"reference":[210],"value":[211],"rate":[215],"0.70,":[217],"appear":[220],"only":[221],"lower":[223],"rates":[225],"or":[226],"tighter":[228],"structures.":[229],"These":[230],"scenario":[231],"results":[232],"generalize,":[235],"requires":[239],"project-level":[240],"validation.":[241]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2026-11-06T00:00:00"}
