{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7225276247","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/17479541261503433","title":"Realized margin value of NBA two-for-one opportunities conditional on regaining possession","display_name":"Realized margin value of NBA two-for-one opportunities conditional on regaining possession","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-11-03","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7225276247","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/17479541261503433"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1177/17479541261503433","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/17479541261503433","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1177/17479541261503433","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S33049603","display_name":"International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching","issn_l":"1747-9541","issn":["1747-9541","2048-397X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-d","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1","poland-40","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320017","host_organization_name":"SAGE Publishing","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320017"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["SAGE Publishing"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"International Journal of Sports Science &amp; Coaching","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5138559628","display_name":"Feng Wang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0001-9078-267X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0001-9078-267X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I43081956","display_name":"Xiangnan University","ror":"https://ror.org/05by9mg64","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I43081956"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Feng Wang","raw_affiliation_strings":["Xiangnan University"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0001-9078-267X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Xiangnan University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I43081956"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5160633324","display_name":"Hongzhi Hu","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I43081956","display_name":"Xiangnan University","ror":"https://ror.org/05by9mg64","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I43081956"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Hongzhi Hu","raw_affiliation_strings":["Xiangnan University"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Xiangnan University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I43081956"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5160634990","display_name":"Yichen Liu","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210107205","display_name":"Russian State University for Physical Education Sport Youth and Tourism","ror":"https://ror.org/01r729g75","country_code":"RU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210107205"]}],"countries":["RU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Yichen Liu","raw_affiliation_strings":["Russian National State University of Physical Education, Sport, Youth and Tourism"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Russian National State University of Physical Education, Sport, Youth and Tourism","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210107205"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5138559628"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I43081956"],"apc_list":{"value":3650,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3650},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.8945888,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.9976000189781189,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.9976000189781189,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10157","display_name":"Sports Performance and Training","score":0.002400000113993883,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2732","display_name":"Orthopedics and Sports Medicine"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10813","display_name":"Sport Psychology and Performance","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3204","display_name":"Developmental and Educational Psychology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/32","display_name":"Psychology"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C774472","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6760393","display_name":"Margin (machine learning)","level":2,"score":0.6890000104904175},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776291640","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2912517","display_name":"Value (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.5203999876976013},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C183115368","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q856577","display_name":"Weighting","level":2,"score":0.5080000162124634},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.5027999877929688},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.48019999265670776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780193096","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3543662","display_name":"Possession (linguistics)","level":2,"score":0.4235000014305115},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C175291020","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1156822","display_name":"Offset (computer science)","level":2,"score":0.3831000030040741},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C207451115","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12898216","display_name":"Throwing","level":2,"score":0.3824999928474426},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C103189561","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5372","display_name":"Basketball","level":2,"score":0.35260000824928284},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778112365","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3511065","display_name":"Sequence (biology)","level":2,"score":0.3440000116825104},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.3285999894142151},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.32820001244544983},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C58471807","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q327120","display_name":"Receiver operating characteristic","level":2,"score":0.31040000915527344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778363899","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23900955","display_name":"Window of opportunity","level":2,"score":0.30979999899864197},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C40423286","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q284172","display_name":"Selection bias","level":2,"score":0.30489999055862427},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C152877465","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q208042","display_name":"Regression analysis","level":2,"score":0.30230000615119934},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C83546350","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1139051","display_name":"Regression","level":2,"score":0.2915000021457672},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162118730","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1128453","display_name":"Actuarial science","level":1,"score":0.2888999879360199},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2992317946","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q712144","display_name":"De facto","level":2,"score":0.2849000096321106},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.2824999988079071},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2986652750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11700776","display_name":"Value creation","level":2,"score":0.2745000123977661},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.26579999923706055},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C198531522","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q485146","display_name":"Sample (material)","level":2,"score":0.2651999890804291},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C63002673","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2260590","display_name":"Scoring rule","level":2,"score":0.2590000033378601},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C136975688","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1320634","display_name":"Tournament","level":2,"score":0.25690001249313354},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41065033","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2825412","display_name":"Adversary","level":2,"score":0.2531999945640564},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21547014","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1423657","display_name":"Operations management","level":1,"score":0.2531000077724457}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1177/17479541261503433","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/17479541261503433","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1177/17479541261503433","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S33049603","display_name":"International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching","issn_l":"1747-9541","issn":["1747-9541","2048-397X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-d","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1","poland-40","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320017","host_organization_name":"SAGE Publishing","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320017"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["SAGE Publishing"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"International Journal of Sports Science &amp; Coaching","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":17,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1454400239","https://openalex.org/W1992491006","https://openalex.org/W1994510541","https://openalex.org/W2008060244","https://openalex.org/W2045656233","https://openalex.org/W2058731786","https://openalex.org/W2089787974","https://openalex.org/W2091567651","https://openalex.org/W2109047492","https://openalex.org/W2157731580","https://openalex.org/W2203714058","https://openalex.org/W2368032162","https://openalex.org/W2753599755","https://openalex.org/W2902517215","https://openalex.org/W4225151168","https://openalex.org/W4232976691","https://openalex.org/W7129086308"],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"This":[0],"study":[1],"examined":[2],"the":[3,18,23,30,33,35,39,43,53,88,102,108,111,114,117,125,160,172,186,211],"realized":[4],"margin":[5,97,106,133,195],"value":[6,98,229],"of":[7,32,83,110,116],"successful":[8,120],"National":[9],"Basketball":[10],"Association":[11],"(NBA)":[12],"two-for-one":[13,212],"possessions.":[14],"Rather":[15],"than":[16,204],"evaluating":[17],"tactic":[19],"only":[20],"by":[21,168],"whether":[22,38],"focal":[24,44,89,161],"team":[25,90],"obtained":[26],"another":[27],"possession":[28],"before":[29],"end":[31,115],"quarter,":[34],"analysis":[36],"measured":[37,100],"full":[40],"sequence":[41,227],"improved":[42],"team's":[45,162],"score":[46,105],"margin.":[47],"NBA":[48],"regular-season":[49],"play-by-play":[50],"data":[51],"from":[52,107,124,146],"2016\u201317":[54],"through":[55],"2025\u201326":[56],"seasons":[57],"were":[58,190],"used":[59],"to":[60,68,113,148],"identify":[61],"candidate":[62,81],"end-of-quarter":[63],"possessions":[64],"beginning":[65,183],"with":[66,192],"30":[67],"45":[69],"s":[70,188],"remaining":[71],"in":[72,87,104,129,185],"quarters":[73],"1\u20133.":[74],"The":[75,142,207],"primary":[76],"value-analysis":[77],"sample":[78],"included":[79],"30,001":[80],"opportunities,":[82],"which":[84],"26,386":[85],"resulted":[86],"successfully":[91],"obtaining":[92],"a":[93,219,224],"second":[94],"possession.":[95,174],"Realized":[96],"was":[99,135,165],"as":[101,218,223],"change":[103],"start":[109],"opportunity":[112,128],"quarter.":[118],"Among":[119],"second-possession":[121],"cases":[122],"arising":[123],"earliest":[126],"eligible":[127],"each":[130],"game-quarter,":[131],"mean":[132,144],"swing":[134],"0.440":[136],"points":[137,150],"(game-bootstrap":[138],"95%":[139],"CI:":[140],"0.414\u20130.465).":[141],"corresponding":[143],"ranged":[145],"0.312":[147],"0.375":[149],"under":[151],"alternative":[152],"selection":[153],"and":[154,237],"weighting":[155],"rules.":[156],"Decomposition":[157],"showed":[158],"that":[159,181,210],"additional":[163],"scoring":[164,170,226],"partly":[166],"offset":[167],"opponent":[169,238],"during":[171],"intervening":[173],"A":[175],"Bayesian":[176],"Student-t":[177],"regression":[178],"model":[179],"indicated":[180],"opportunities":[182],"earlier":[184],"30\u201345":[187],"window":[189],"associated":[191],"greater":[193],"adjusted":[194],"swing,":[196],"while":[197],"leading":[198],"teams":[199],"generated":[200],"slightly":[201],"smaller":[202],"gains":[203],"trailing":[205],"teams.":[206],"findings":[208],"suggest":[209],"should":[213],"be":[214],"understood":[215],"not":[216],"simply":[217],"possession-count":[220],"tactic,":[221],"but":[222],"context-dependent":[225],"whose":[228],"depends":[230],"on":[231],"timing,":[232],"game":[233],"state,":[234],"focal-team":[235],"scoring,":[236],"scoring.":[239]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-05T12:25:35.769452","created_date":"2026-11-05T00:00:00"}
