{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7225254912","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/su182111254","title":"Regional Carbon-Peaking Pathways for Sustainable Transportation in China Based on an Integrated STIRPAT\u2013LightGBM Model","display_name":"Regional Carbon-Peaking Pathways for Sustainable Transportation in China Based on an Integrated STIRPAT\u2013LightGBM Model","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-11-04","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7225254912","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/su182111254"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/su182111254","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/su182111254","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/su182111254","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S10134376","display_name":"Sustainability","issn_l":"2071-1050","issn":["2071-1050"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Sustainability","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/su182111254","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5102005020","display_name":"Yihang Wang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0002-2704-8218","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0002-2704-8218"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I141962983","display_name":"Shanghai University of Engineering Science","ror":"https://ror.org/0557b9y08","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I141962983"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Yihang Wang","raw_affiliation_strings":["College of Air Transportation, Shanghai University of Engineering Science, Shanghai 201620, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"College of Air Transportation, Shanghai University of Engineering Science, Shanghai 201620, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I141962983"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5109763630","display_name":"Liping Zhu","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I141962983","display_name":"Shanghai University of Engineering Science","ror":"https://ror.org/0557b9y08","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I141962983"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Liping Zhu","raw_affiliation_strings":["College of Air Transportation, Shanghai University of Engineering Science, Shanghai 201620, China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9008-0566","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"College of Air Transportation, Shanghai University of Engineering Science, Shanghai 201620, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I141962983"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5150655286","display_name":"Changxiong Hu","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I141962983","display_name":"Shanghai University of Engineering Science","ror":"https://ror.org/0557b9y08","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I141962983"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Changxiong Hu","raw_affiliation_strings":["College of Air Transportation, Shanghai University of Engineering Science, Shanghai 201620, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"College of Air Transportation, Shanghai University of Engineering Science, Shanghai 201620, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I141962983"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5109763630"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I141962983"],"apc_list":{"value":2400,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":2896},"apc_paid":{"value":2400,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":2896},"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.8931877,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"18","issue":"21","first_page":"11254","last_page":"11254"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10438","display_name":"Energy, Environment, Economic Growth","score":0.9897000193595886,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10438","display_name":"Energy, Environment, Economic Growth","score":0.9897000193595886,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12095","display_name":"Vehicle emissions and performance","score":0.004999999888241291,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2203","display_name":"Automotive Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10435","display_name":"Environmental Impact and Sustainability","score":0.0017000000225380063,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2305","display_name":"Environmental Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C191935318","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q148","display_name":"China","level":2,"score":0.5777000188827515},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C6422946","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q857354","display_name":"Panel data","level":2,"score":0.483599990606308},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C148383697","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1781695","display_name":"Regional science","level":1,"score":0.44859999418258667},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C186370098","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q442787","display_name":"Energy (signal processing)","level":2,"score":0.40799999237060547},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C552854447","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q131201","display_name":"Sustainable development","level":2,"score":0.397599995136261},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.3921999931335449},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.3873000144958496},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18785705","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1931373","display_name":"Scenario analysis","level":2,"score":0.3589000105857849},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777211547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17141490","display_name":"Training (meteorology)","level":2,"score":0.35359999537467957},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.34290000796318054},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119693030","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2180497","display_name":"Economic model","level":2,"score":0.3393999934196472},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C150217764","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6803607","display_name":"Mean absolute percentage error","level":3,"score":0.3278000056743622},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C40117522","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q828224","display_name":"Kilometer","level":2,"score":0.3160000145435333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C157181609","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1364310","display_name":"Sustainable transport","level":3,"score":0.31150001287460327},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134560507","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q753291","display_name":"Environmental economics","level":1,"score":0.30239999294281006},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C12725497","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q810247","display_name":"Baseline (sea)","level":2,"score":0.3003999888896942},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107826830","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q929380","display_name":"Environmental resource management","level":1,"score":0.2906999886035919},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2982926626","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1962383","display_name":"Sustainable energy","level":3,"score":0.2858000099658966},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.27950000762939453},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C175605778","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3299701","display_name":"Natural resource economics","level":1,"score":0.27549999952316284},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C13606891","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2623243","display_name":"Conceptual model","level":2,"score":0.26969999074935913},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2985347565","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2151621","display_name":"Energy sector","level":2,"score":0.2653000056743622},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C66204764","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q219416","display_name":"Sustainability","level":2,"score":0.2526000142097473}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.3390/su182111254","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/su182111254","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/su182111254","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S10134376","display_name":"Sustainability","issn_l":"2071-1050","issn":["2071-1050"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Sustainability","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/su182111254","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/su182111254","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/su182111254","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S10134376","display_name":"Sustainability","issn_l":"2071-1050","issn":["2071-1050"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Sustainability","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Provincial":[0],"differences":[1],"in":[2,130],"economic":[3,147],"growth,":[4],"energy":[5,145],"use,":[6],"and":[7,29,36,49,102,107,112,124,134,149,155],"infrastructure":[8],"make":[9],"China\u2019s":[10],"transport-related":[11],"emissions":[12,35],"difficult":[13],"to":[14,80,91],"represent":[15],"with":[16,64],"a":[17,22,74,83],"single":[18],"national":[19],"pathway.":[20],"Using":[21],"2006\u20132023":[23],"provincial":[24],"panel":[25],"for":[26,41,82],"transportation,":[27],"warehousing,":[28],"postal":[30],"services,":[31],"this":[32],"study":[33],"estimates":[34],"evaluates":[37],"six":[38],"regional":[39,142],"scenarios":[40],"2024\u20132035.":[42],"Predictors":[43],"are":[44,96],"selected":[45],"through":[46],"correlation":[47],"screening":[48],"random":[50],"forest":[51],"within":[52],"time-ordered":[53],"training":[54],"windows,":[55],"after":[56],"which":[57],"an":[58],"extended":[59],"STIRPAT\u2013Ridge":[60],"model":[61,72,104],"is":[62],"combined":[63],"LightGBM.":[65],"On":[66],"the":[67,70,115,120,153],"2021\u20132023":[68],"holdout,":[69],"integrated":[71],"records":[73,105],"conditional":[75,106,128],"MAPE":[76,89],"of":[77,110,157],"4.56%,":[78],"close":[79],"4.82%":[81],"four-factor":[84],"accounting":[85],"benchmark,":[86],"while":[87],"end-to-end":[88,108],"rises":[90],"12.11%":[92],"when":[93],"all":[94],"drivers":[95],"projected.":[97],"A":[98],"driver-adjusted":[99],"province":[100],"fixed-effect":[101],"trend":[103],"MAPEs":[109],"3.32%":[111],"10.79%.":[113],"Under":[114],"development\u2013emission":[116],"reduction":[117],"coordination":[118],"scenario,":[119],"eastern,":[121],"western,":[122],"central,":[123],"northeastern":[125],"regions":[126],"reach":[127],"maxima":[129],"2030,":[131],"2031,":[132],"2032,":[133,135],"respectively.":[136],"The":[137],"scenario":[138],"comparison":[139],"shows":[140],"how":[141],"assumptions":[143],"about":[144],"intensity,":[146],"activity,":[148],"transport":[150],"structure":[151],"shape":[152],"timing":[154],"level":[156],"future":[158],"emissions.":[159]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-05T12:25:35.769452","created_date":"2026-11-05T00:00:00"}