{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7225150882","doi":"https://doi.org/10.21511/bbs.21(4).2026.09","title":"Bank deposits and non-oil economic growth in Azerbaijan: Evidence from linear and nonlinear Granger causality","display_name":"Bank deposits and non-oil economic growth in Azerbaijan: Evidence from linear and nonlinear Granger causality","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-11-03","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7225150882","doi":"https://doi.org/10.21511/bbs.21(4).2026.09"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.21511/bbs.21(4).2026.09","doi":"https://doi.org/10.21511/bbs.21(4).2026.09","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.21511/bbs.21(4).2026.09","pdf_url":"https://businessperspectives.org/images/pdf/applications/publishing/templates/article/assets/25546/BBS_2026_04_Hasanov.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764465937","display_name":"Banks and Bank Systems","issn_l":"1816-7403","issn":["1816-7403","1991-7074"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","doaj","erih-plus","norway-1","poland-20","russia-white-list-1"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310321069","host_organization_name":"Business Perspectives","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310321069"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Business Perspectives"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Banks and Bank Systems","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://businessperspectives.org/images/pdf/applications/publishing/templates/article/assets/25546/BBS_2026_04_Hasanov.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5059568878","display_name":"Ramil I. Hasanov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4267-7039","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4267-7039"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210086371","display_name":"Azerbaijan State University of Economics","ror":"https://ror.org/000y2g343","country_code":"AZ","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210086371"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4400008958","display_name":"Mingachevir State University","ror":"https://ror.org/04j0rnj48","country_code":"AZ","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4400008958"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I83579964","display_name":"Sz\u00e9chenyi Istv\u00e1n University","ror":"https://ror.org/04091f946","country_code":"HU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I83579964"]}],"countries":["AZ","HU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ramil Hasanov","raw_affiliation_strings":["Ph.D., Department of Economics, Mingachevir State University, Azerbaijan; UNEC Research Center on Global Environmental Issues, Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC), Azerbaijan; Doctoral School of Regional and Business Administration Sciences (SzEEDSM), Sz\u00e9chenyi Istv\u00e1n University, Egyetem t\u00e9r 1, 9026 Gy\u0151r, Hungary"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4267-7039","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Ph.D., Department of Economics, Mingachevir State University, Azerbaijan; UNEC Research Center on Global Environmental Issues, Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC), Azerbaijan; Doctoral School of Regional and Business Administration Sciences (SzEEDSM), Sz\u00e9chenyi Istv\u00e1n University, Egyetem t\u00e9r 1, 9026 Gy\u0151r, Hungary","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210086371","https://openalex.org/I4400008958","https://openalex.org/I83579964"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5003540568","display_name":"Zeynab Giyasova","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3557-4832","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3557-4832"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210086371","display_name":"Azerbaijan State University of Economics","ror":"https://ror.org/000y2g343","country_code":"AZ","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210086371"]}],"countries":["AZ"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Zeynab Giyasova","raw_affiliation_strings":["Ph.D., Department of Economics, Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC), Azerbaijan"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3557-4832","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Ph.D., Department of Economics, Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC), Azerbaijan","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210086371"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5034252029","display_name":"Juan Antonio Parrilla-Gonz\u00e1lez","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3849-8775","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3849-8775"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I191420491","display_name":"Universidad de Ja\u00e9n","ror":"https://ror.org/0122p5f64","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I191420491"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Juan A. Parrilla Gonz\u00e1lez","raw_affiliation_strings":["Ph.D., Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Social and Legal Sciences, Jaen University, Spain"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3849-8775","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Ph.D., Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Social and Legal Sciences, Jaen University, Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I191420491"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5047395068","display_name":"Aynur I. Jabbarova","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5626-9768","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5626-9768","https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7140-6185"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210086371","display_name":"Azerbaijan State University of Economics","ror":"https://ror.org/000y2g343","country_code":"AZ","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210086371"]}],"countries":["AZ"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Aynur Jabbarova","raw_affiliation_strings":["Ph.D., Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC), Azerbaijan"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7140-6185","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Ph.D., Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC), Azerbaijan","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210086371"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5160548127","display_name":"Naila Akhundova","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1629-7414","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1629-7414"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210086371","display_name":"Azerbaijan State University of Economics","ror":"https://ror.org/000y2g343","country_code":"AZ","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210086371"]}],"countries":["AZ"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Naila Akhundova","raw_affiliation_strings":["Ph.D., Department of Applied Economics, Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC), Azerbaijan"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1629-7414","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Ph.D., Department of Applied Economics, Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC), Azerbaijan","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210086371"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5129324726","display_name":"Laman Ahmadova","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0003-7763-3623","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0003-7763-3623"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I26889942","display_name":"Azerbaijan Technical University","ror":"https://ror.org/01qe1a488","country_code":"AZ","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I26889942"]}],"countries":["AZ"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Laman Ahmadova","raw_affiliation_strings":["Ph.D., Department of Digital Economy and Financial Technologies, Azerbaijan Technical University, Azerbaijan"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0003-7763-3623","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Ph.D., Department of Digital Economy and Financial Technologies, Azerbaijan Technical University, Azerbaijan","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I26889942"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":3,"institutions_distinct_count":5,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":{"value":595,"currency":"EUR","value_usd":641},"apc_paid":{"value":595,"currency":"EUR","value_usd":641},"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.90418446,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"21","issue":"4","first_page":"129\u2013145","last_page":"0"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.9824000000953674,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.9824000000953674,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10127","display_name":"Banking stability, regulation, efficiency","score":0.010099999606609344,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11742","display_name":"Economic Theory and Policy","score":0.0019000000320374966,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bank-deposits","display_name":"bank deposits","score":0.8579999804496765},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/household-savings","display_name":"household savings","score":0.6830000281333923},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/nonlinear-granger-causality","display_name":"nonlinear Granger causality","score":0.7720000147819519},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/azerbaijan","display_name":"Azerbaijan","score":0.6140000224113464}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.7594000101089478},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C129824826","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2630107","display_name":"Granger causality","level":2,"score":0.7364000082015991},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.6105999946594238},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C158622935","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q660848","display_name":"Nonlinear system","level":2,"score":0.4569999873638153},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C75778745","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q342626","display_name":"Lag","level":2,"score":0.435699999332428},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C89128539","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1949963","display_name":"Statistic","level":2,"score":0.42980000376701355},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.4032000005245209},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C183115368","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q856577","display_name":"Weighting","level":2,"score":0.3917999863624573},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781300812","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q178061","display_name":"Shock (circulatory)","level":2,"score":0.3700000047683716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C64357122","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1149766","display_name":"Causality (physics)","level":2,"score":0.36000001430511475},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.3580000102519989},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C163175372","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3339222","display_name":"Linear model","level":2,"score":0.35760000348091125},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C74193536","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q574844","display_name":"Kernel (algebra)","level":2,"score":0.328000009059906},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C181683161","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7301159","display_name":"Real gross domestic product","level":2,"score":0.30399999022483826},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777382242","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6017816","display_name":"Index (typography)","level":2,"score":0.29739999771118164},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C87007009","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q210832","display_name":"Statistical hypothesis testing","level":2,"score":0.27970001101493835},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134024062","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1401229","display_name":"Error correction model","level":3,"score":0.27630001306533813},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C133029050","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q385593","display_name":"Vector autoregression","level":2,"score":0.27480000257492065},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C14036430","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3736076","display_name":"Function (biology)","level":2,"score":0.2581000030040741},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166052673","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q83021","display_name":"Empirical evidence","level":2,"score":0.25279998779296875}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.21511/bbs.21(4).2026.09","doi":"https://doi.org/10.21511/bbs.21(4).2026.09","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.21511/bbs.21(4).2026.09","pdf_url":"https://businessperspectives.org/images/pdf/applications/publishing/templates/article/assets/25546/BBS_2026_04_Hasanov.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764465937","display_name":"Banks and Bank Systems","issn_l":"1816-7403","issn":["1816-7403","1991-7074"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","doaj","erih-plus","norway-1","poland-20","russia-white-list-1"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310321069","host_organization_name":"Business Perspectives","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310321069"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Business Perspectives"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Banks and Bank Systems","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:46152ea56ad4429682e1625aa8e574c4","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/46152ea56ad4429682e1625aa8e574c4","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Banks and Bank Systems, Vol 21, Iss 4, p 129\u2013145 (2026)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.21511/bbs.21(4).2026.09","doi":"https://doi.org/10.21511/bbs.21(4).2026.09","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.21511/bbs.21(4).2026.09","pdf_url":"https://businessperspectives.org/images/pdf/applications/publishing/templates/article/assets/25546/BBS_2026_04_Hasanov.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764465937","display_name":"Banks and Bank Systems","issn_l":"1816-7403","issn":["1816-7403","1991-7074"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","doaj","erih-plus","norway-1","poland-20","russia-white-list-1"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310321069","host_organization_name":"Business Perspectives","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310321069"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Business Perspectives"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Banks and Bank Systems","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7225150882.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7225150882.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":26,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1588163064","https://openalex.org/W1588189399","https://openalex.org/W1725190939","https://openalex.org/W1975994995","https://openalex.org/W1981780459","https://openalex.org/W2011896568","https://openalex.org/W2097580026","https://openalex.org/W2108491286","https://openalex.org/W2115013622","https://openalex.org/W2178225550","https://openalex.org/W2572388675","https://openalex.org/W2896480838","https://openalex.org/W2949279437","https://openalex.org/W3042298337","https://openalex.org/W3130456542","https://openalex.org/W4200178269","https://openalex.org/W4388127791","https://openalex.org/W4400105605","https://openalex.org/W4405991857","https://openalex.org/W4406214079","https://openalex.org/W4410069048","https://openalex.org/W4412883074","https://openalex.org/W4415011048","https://openalex.org/W7127597222","https://openalex.org/W7127953741","https://openalex.org/W7161270003"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4388127791","https://openalex.org/W3124814045","https://openalex.org/W2949279437","https://openalex.org/W7198562488","https://openalex.org/W7215740946","https://openalex.org/W2981325355","https://openalex.org/W3138515652","https://openalex.org/W2417778547","https://openalex.org/W2007055612","https://openalex.org/W3199545549"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Type":[0],"of":[1,137,166],"the":[2,8,120,178,193,203,211,222],"article:":[3],"Research":[4],"ArticleAbstractThis":[5],"study":[6],"examines":[7],"predictive":[9,73,93,139,232],"relationship":[10,206,233],"between":[11,234],"real":[12],"non-oil":[13,29,150,235],"economic":[14,236],"growth":[15,20,46,152,156,181,237,241],"and":[16,31,41,81,187,238],"household":[17,154,239],"bank":[18,33],"deposit":[19,155,240],"in":[21,92,114,242],"Azerbaijan":[22],"using":[23],"annual":[24,44],"data":[25],"for":[26],"2000\u20132024.":[27],"Real":[28],"GDP":[30,151,180],"individual":[32],"deposits":[34],"are":[35],"measured":[36],"at":[37],"constant":[38],"2010":[39],"prices":[40],"transformed":[42],"into":[43],"logarithmic":[45],"rates.":[47],"The":[48,86],"empirical":[49],"analysis":[50],"combines":[51],"conventional":[52],"linear":[53,142,205,229],"Granger":[54,61,122,143],"causality":[55,62,148],"testing":[56,144],"with":[57,100,163],"a":[58,82,89,111,171,217,227],"nonlinear":[59,96,138,231],"Kernel":[60,121],"approach":[63],"based":[64],"on":[65],"radial":[66],"basis":[67],"function":[68],"kernel":[69],"ridge":[70],"regression.":[71],"Nonlinear":[72],"performance":[74],"is":[75,98,124,207],"assessed":[76],"through":[77],"expanding-window":[78],"rolling-origin":[79],"cross-validation":[80],"circular-shift":[83],"permutation":[84],"test.":[85],"results":[87],"indicate":[88],"modest":[90],"improvement":[91],"accuracy":[94],"when":[95],"information":[97],"incorporated,":[99],"mean":[101,116],"squared":[102,117],"error":[103],"declining":[104],"from":[105,149,183],"402.41":[106],"to":[107,110,153,185],"376.16,":[108],"corresponding":[109],"3.32%":[112],"reduction":[113],"root":[115],"error.":[118],"Nevertheless,":[119],"statistic":[123],"statistically":[125],"insignificant":[126],"(KGC":[127],"=":[128,131,158,161],"0.067,":[129],"p":[130,160],"0.416),":[132],"providing":[133],"no":[134,164],"robust":[135,228],"evidence":[136,165,223],"causality.":[140,168],"Conventional":[141],"initially":[145],"suggests":[146],"unidirectional":[147],"(F":[157],"5.305,":[159],"0.032),":[162],"reverse":[167],"However,":[169],"introducing":[170],"2015\u20132016":[172,212],"crisis":[173,194],"pulse":[174],"dummy":[175],"substantially":[176],"reduces":[177],"lagged":[179],"coefficient":[182],"1.818":[184],"0.689":[186],"eliminates":[188],"its":[189],"statistical":[190],"significance,":[191],"while":[192],"indicator":[195],"remains":[196],"highly":[197],"significant.":[198],"These":[199],"findings":[200],"suggest":[201],"that":[202],"apparent":[204],"largely":[208],"driven":[209],"by":[210],"macro-financial":[213],"shock":[214],"rather":[215],"than":[216],"stable":[218],"underlying":[219],"mechanism.":[220],"Overall,":[221],"does":[224],"not":[225],"support":[226],"or":[230],"Azerbaijan.":[243]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-06T12:05:46.655746","created_date":"2026-11-04T00:00:00"}