{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7224998975","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23830719","title":"LAB #4934 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION \u2014 improves win rate from 31.7% to 32.6% ( \u2014 E8 Intelligence Research","display_name":"LAB #4934 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION \u2014 improves win rate from 31.7% to 32.6% ( \u2014 E8 Intelligence Research","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-10-31","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7224998975","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23830719"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.23830719","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23830719","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23830719","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23830719","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5153285007","display_name":"Andrew Stewart Caldin","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Caldin, Andrew Stewart","raw_affiliation_strings":["Independent Researcher, United Kingdom"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Independent Researcher, United Kingdom","institution_ids":[]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5153285007"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10047","display_name":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","score":0.8939999938011169,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10047","display_name":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","score":0.8939999938011169,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11326","display_name":"Stock Market Forecasting Methods","score":0.09709999710321426,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.0017999999690800905,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/trading-strategy-backtesting","display_name":"trading strategy backtesting","score":0.6660000085830688},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/win-rate-improvement","display_name":"win rate improvement","score":0.8159999847412109},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forex-trading","display_name":"foreign exchange trading","score":0.43799999356269836},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/eur-usd","display_name":"EUR/USD","score":0.6000000238418579},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/xauusd","display_name":"XAUUSD","score":0.8899999856948853},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/audusd","display_name":"AUDUSD","score":0.9079999923706055},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/usdchf","display_name":"USDCHF","score":0.9879999756813049},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/usdcad","display_name":"USDCAD","score":0.9990000128746033}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778751112","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q835016","display_name":"Window (computing)","level":2,"score":0.6326000094413757},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780646309","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1151380","display_name":"Netting","level":2,"score":0.5745999813079834},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139002025","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3001212","display_name":"Lift (data mining)","level":2,"score":0.5569999814033508},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C106131492","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3072260","display_name":"Filter (signal processing)","level":2,"score":0.5404000282287598},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5110999941825867},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C97399411","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q825367","display_name":"Coin flipping","level":2,"score":0.4219000041484833},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44280652","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q104837","display_name":"Phase (matter)","level":2,"score":0.4185999929904938},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.35100001096725464},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C75778745","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q342626","display_name":"Lag","level":2,"score":0.34700000286102295},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42058472","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q810214","display_name":"Base (topology)","level":2,"score":0.3458000123500824},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44154836","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q45045","display_name":"Simulation","level":1,"score":0.32829999923706055},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.32679998874664307},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778363899","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23900955","display_name":"Window of opportunity","level":2,"score":0.32580000162124634},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149810388","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5374873","display_name":"Emulation","level":2,"score":0.3176000118255615},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42475967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194292","display_name":"Operations research","level":1,"score":0.31630000472068787},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C13736549","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4489420","display_name":"Industrial engineering","level":1,"score":0.3009999990463257},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C79403827","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3988","display_name":"Real-time computing","level":1,"score":0.29750001430511475},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779843651","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7390335","display_name":"SIGNAL (programming language)","level":2,"score":0.2955999970436096},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C47446073","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5165890","display_name":"Control theory (sociology)","level":3,"score":0.27630001306533813},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C63382987","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q455204","display_name":"Hodrick\u2013Prescott filter","level":3,"score":0.2667999863624573},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C32848918","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q845789","display_name":"Observable","level":2,"score":0.26570001244544983}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.23830719","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23830719","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23830719","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.23830720","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23830720","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23830720","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.23830719","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23830719","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23830719","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7223218651","https://openalex.org/W7224996337","https://openalex.org/W7221336987","https://openalex.org/W7223196951","https://openalex.org/W7224953628","https://openalex.org/W7214540586","https://openalex.org/W7214576251","https://openalex.org/W7221461784","https://openalex.org/W7221115643","https://openalex.org/W7214037840"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"IDEA:":[0],"Adjustment":[1],"made":[2],"to":[3,24,63],"the":[4,10,52,93,100,105,120,133,170],"live":[5,60],"model":[6],"\u2014":[7,18,47,74,112,117,159],"verify":[8],"against":[9],"backtests:":[11],"Apply":[12],"filter:":[13],"Quarterly":[14],"phase":[15,35],"=":[16,36],"MANIPULATION":[17,98],"improves":[19],"win":[20],"rate":[21],"from":[22,137,140],"31.7%":[23,152],"32.6%":[25],"(+0.8pp,":[26],"n=1563)":[27],"SAME-WINDOW":[28],"EFFECT:":[29],"The":[30,59],"filter":[31,101],"keys":[32],"on":[33,85,127,150],"\"Quarterly":[34],"MANIPULATION,\"":[37],"which":[38],"is":[39,130,154],"a":[40,44,86,97,113,151,155],"calendar/regime":[41],"label,":[42],"not":[43,139],"per-trade":[45],"signal":[46],"so":[48],"it":[49],"either":[50],"gates":[51],"whole":[53],"window":[54,61,94],"or":[55],"none":[56],"of":[57,169],"it.":[58],"(2026-09-03":[62],"2026-09-11)":[64],"shows":[65],"4":[66],"closed":[67],"trades:":[68],"2":[69,79],"losses":[70,108],"(EURUSD,":[71,109],"XAUUSD,":[72,110],"AUDUSD":[73],"actually":[75],"3":[76],"losses)":[77],"and":[78],"wins":[80],"(USDCHF,":[81],"USDCAD),":[82],"i.e.":[83],"~40%":[84],"tiny":[87],"sample,":[88],"plus":[89],"5":[90],"rejected/open.":[91],"If":[92],"falls":[95],"inside":[96],"phase,":[99],"would":[102],"have":[103],"suppressed":[104],"three":[106],"SHORT":[107],"AUDUSD)":[111],"real":[114],"PnL":[115],"save":[116],"but":[118],"also":[119],"two":[121],"USDCHF/USDCAD":[122],"wins,":[123],"netting":[124],"roughly":[125],"flat-to-slightly-positive":[126],"n=5.":[128],"That":[129],"statistically":[131],"meaningless;":[132],"+0.8pp":[134,147],"claim":[135],"comes":[136],"n=1563,":[138],"anything":[141],"observable":[142],"here.":[143],"OVER-TIME":[144],"PROJECTION:":[145],"A":[146],"win-rate":[148],"lift":[149],"base":[153],"~2.5%":[156],"relative":[157],"improvement":[158],"well":[160],"Author:":[161],"Andrew":[162],"Stewart":[163],"Caldin,":[164],"Independent":[165],"Researcher,":[166],"UK.":[167],"Part":[168],"E8":[171],"Intelligence":[172],"Research":[173],"series.":[174],"Platform:":[175],"e8intelligence.com":[176]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-02T09:45:03.842371","created_date":"2026-11-01T00:00:00"}