{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7224890729","doi":"https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.15011349/v1","title":"The Stochastic Incubator Hypothesis: Model Collapse as a Motive for Non-Contact in the Fermi Paradox","display_name":"The Stochastic Incubator Hypothesis: Model Collapse as a Motive for Non-Contact in the Fermi Paradox","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-10-30","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7224890729","doi":"https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.15011349/v1"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.22541/essoar.15011349/v1","doi":"https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.15011349/v1","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.15011349/v1","pdf_url":"https://essopenarchive.org/doi/pdf/10.22541/essoar.15011349/v1","source":null,"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://essopenarchive.org/doi/pdf/10.22541/essoar.15011349/v1","any_repository_has_fulltext":null},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5159648016","display_name":"Lucas FIANDRIN","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0007-9086-6770","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0007-9086-6770"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Lucas Fiandrin","raw_affiliation_strings":["Independent researcher"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0007-9086-6770","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Independent researcher","institution_ids":[]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5159648016"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12788","display_name":"Space Science and Extraterrestrial Life","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3103","display_name":"Astronomy and Astrophysics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/31","display_name":"Physics and Astronomy"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12788","display_name":"Space Science and Extraterrestrial Life","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3103","display_name":"Astronomy and Astrophysics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/31","display_name":"Physics and Astronomy"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13811","display_name":"Earth Systems and Cosmic Evolution","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10039","display_name":"Stellar, planetary, and galactic studies","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3103","display_name":"Astronomy and Astrophysics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/31","display_name":"Physics and Astronomy"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/fermi-paradox","display_name":"Fermi paradox","score":0.9959999918937683},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/model-collapse","display_name":"model collapse","score":0.7599999904632568},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/correlated-errors","display_name":"correlated errors","score":0.5860000252723694},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/drake-equation","display_name":"Drake equation","score":0.6949999928474426},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/monte-carlo-simulation","display_name":"Monte Carlo simulation","score":0.859000027179718},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/extraterrestrial-intelligence","display_name":"extraterrestrial intelligence","score":0.6470000147819519}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21905920","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q900452","display_name":"Incubator","level":2,"score":0.6383000016212463},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139676723","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1193832","display_name":"Sign (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.5400000214576721},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781316041","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1230584","display_name":"Diversity (politics)","level":2,"score":0.49549999833106995},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C98444146","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q318","display_name":"Galaxy","level":2,"score":0.49480000138282776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781115785","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q502261","display_name":"Silence","level":2,"score":0.47369998693466187},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33332235","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q18362","display_name":"Theoretical physics","level":1,"score":0.45419999957084656},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C122302079","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8432","display_name":"Civilization","level":2,"score":0.424699991941452},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121864883","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q677916","display_name":"Statistical physics","level":1,"score":0.39320001006126404},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.3837999999523163},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144237770","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q747534","display_name":"Mathematical economics","level":1,"score":0.36399999260902405},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C48677424","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6888088","display_name":"Mode (computer interface)","level":2,"score":0.33480000495910645},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C108650721","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1783253","display_name":"Counterfactual thinking","level":2,"score":0.32739999890327454},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C72319582","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q584304","display_name":"Degenerate energy levels","level":2,"score":0.3237000107765198},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.31349998712539673},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C186769553","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q726648","display_name":"Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope","level":2,"score":0.3012000024318695},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776650193","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q264661","display_name":"Obstacle","level":2,"score":0.2973000109195709},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C167927819","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1930567","display_name":"Shuffling","level":2,"score":0.29670000076293945},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C114170632","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2003641","display_name":"Novikov self-consistency principle","level":2,"score":0.26440000534057617},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.26190000772476196},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779267663","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7782435","display_name":"Theory of everything (philosophy)","level":2,"score":0.26190000772476196}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.22541/essoar.15011349/v1","doi":"https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.15011349/v1","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.15011349/v1","pdf_url":"https://essopenarchive.org/doi/pdf/10.22541/essoar.15011349/v1","source":null,"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.22541/essoar.15011349/v1","doi":"https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.15011349/v1","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.15011349/v1","pdf_url":"https://essopenarchive.org/doi/pdf/10.22541/essoar.15011349/v1","source":null,"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7224890729.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7224890729.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":6,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1638250833","https://openalex.org/W1673923490","https://openalex.org/W2408141691","https://openalex.org/W2806919269","https://openalex.org/W7223055343","https://openalex.org/W7223654529"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7223654529","https://openalex.org/W6893609070","https://openalex.org/W7115732624","https://openalex.org/W7159590643","https://openalex.org/W7134266272","https://openalex.org/W2001671364","https://openalex.org/W6949860426","https://openalex.org/W7204563513","https://openalex.org/W7078840797","https://openalex.org/W7115922055"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0,46,215],"Fermi":[1],"paradox":[2],"asks":[3],"why":[4,139],"a":[5,33,56,70,196,212],"galaxy":[6,191],"billions":[7],"of":[8,14,66,117,122,182],"years":[9],"old":[10],"shows":[11],"no":[12],"sign":[13],"other":[15],"civilizations.":[16],"Zoo-type":[17],"hypotheses,":[18],"in":[19,221],"which":[20,129],"advanced":[21],"civilizations":[22,177],"observe":[23],"young":[24],"worlds":[25],"without":[26],"contacting":[27],"them,":[28],"rarely":[29],"give":[30],"the":[31,43,110,115,120,126,134,153,161,166,174,206],"observers":[32],"motive":[34,53],"and":[35,80,101,125,168,230],"seem":[36],"to":[37,114,146],"require":[38],"that":[39,59,89,170,178],"every":[40],"civilization":[41],"obeys":[42],"same":[44,127],"rule.":[45],"Stochastic":[47],"Incubator":[48],"Hypothesis":[49],"addresses":[50],"both.":[51],"Its":[52],"rests":[54],"on":[55,199,225],"structural":[57],"principle":[58],"current":[60],"artificial":[61,226],"intelligence":[62,88],"makes":[63,152],"observable:":[64],"points":[65],"view":[67],"issuing":[68],"from":[69,96,102,132],"single":[71],"source":[72],"inherit":[73],"its":[74,218],"blind":[75],"spots,":[76],"as":[77,205],"model":[78,151],"collapse":[79],"correlated":[81],"errors":[82],"between":[83],"models":[84],"show.":[85],"An":[86],"ancient":[87],"has":[90],"hit":[91],"this":[92],"\u201cwall\u201d":[93],"would":[94,184],"gain":[95],"letting":[97],"independent":[98,180],"minds":[99],"arise,":[100],"not":[103,144,203,211],"contaminating":[104],"them.":[105],"No":[106],"policing":[107],"is":[108,112],"required:":[109],"silence":[111,155],"attributed":[113],"rarity":[116],"technological":[118],"life,":[119],"diversity":[121],"civilizations'":[123],"natures":[124],"wall,":[128],"brakes":[130],"expansions":[131],"within;":[133],"non-contact":[135],"rule":[136],"explains":[137],"only":[138],"those":[140],"who":[141],"exist":[142],"do":[143,202],"speak":[145],"us.":[147],"A":[148],"Monte":[149],"Carlo":[150],"observed":[154],"probable":[156,213],"(0.88":[157],"across":[158],"draws),":[159],"verifies":[160],"hypothesis's":[162],"Drake-like":[163],"equation":[164],"against":[165],"simulation,":[167],"finds":[169],"interlocutors":[171],"compatible":[172],"with":[173],"silence,":[175],"admitted":[176],"remain":[179],"sources":[181],"thought,":[183],"be":[185],"very":[186],"rare,":[187],"about":[188],"one":[189],"per":[190],"today.":[192],"These":[193],"results":[194],"designate":[195],"network":[197],"relying":[198],"physics":[200],"we":[201],"know":[204],"most":[207],"coherent":[208],"variant,":[209],"though":[210],"one.":[214],"hypothesis":[216],"states":[217],"refutation":[219],"conditions":[220],"advance,":[222],"through":[223],"tests":[224],"intelligence,":[227],"near-Earth":[228],"searches":[229],"fundamental":[231],"physics.":[232]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-04T10:54:05.112534","created_date":"2026-10-31T00:00:00"}