{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7224819825","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23813248","title":"Valuation Risk of a Gold-Concentrated Reserve Portfolio: How Commodity Price Shocks Shape Uzbekistan's External Buffers","display_name":"Valuation Risk of a Gold-Concentrated Reserve Portfolio: How Commodity Price Shocks Shape Uzbekistan's External Buffers","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-10-30","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7224819825","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23813248"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.23813248","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23813248","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23813248","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"JournalArticle"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23813248","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5138292078","display_name":"Bobur Farmonov","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Farmonov Bobur","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5160186468","display_name":"Djurayev Turabay","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Djurayev Turabay","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.86558697,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10503","display_name":"Global Financial Crisis and Policies","score":0.9437999725341797,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10503","display_name":"Global Financial Crisis and Policies","score":0.9437999725341797,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11059","display_name":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","score":0.02850000001490116,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.023099999874830246,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/valuation-risk","display_name":"valuation risk","score":0.7039999961853027},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/foreign-exchange-reserves","display_name":"foreign exchange reserves","score":0.7580000162124634},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/gold-reserves","display_name":"gold reserves","score":0.8130000233650208},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/commodity-price-shocks","display_name":"commodity price shocks","score":0.9470000267028809},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/uzbekistan","display_name":"Uzbekistan","score":0.7540000081062317}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.7182000279426575},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776719154","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1094965","display_name":"Downside risk","level":3,"score":0.5708000063896179},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C186027771","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4008379","display_name":"Valuation (finance)","level":2,"score":0.5349000096321106},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779439359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q317088","display_name":"Commodity","level":2,"score":0.46389999985694885},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C556758197","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q580018","display_name":"Monetary economics","level":1,"score":0.45910000801086426},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2993018946","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q488732","display_name":"Price shock","level":2,"score":0.3684999942779541},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121232785","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q317617","display_name":"Foreign-exchange reserves","level":3,"score":0.3677999973297119},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2984239701","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1164550","display_name":"Price risk","level":3,"score":0.3319000005722046},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11039479","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q791975","display_name":"Gold as an investment","level":2,"score":0.3255999982357025},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C91602232","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q756115","display_name":"Volatility (finance)","level":2,"score":0.30979999899864197},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780933327","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7912697","display_name":"Valuation effects","level":3,"score":0.2964000105857849},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C34881761","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1936341","display_name":"Price level","level":2,"score":0.29490000009536743},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C106159729","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2294553","display_name":"Financial economics","level":1,"score":0.28119999170303345},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C150149615","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1058762","display_name":"Reserve requirement","level":4,"score":0.2777000069618225},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.27250000834465027},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2992735868","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q66344","display_name":"Central bank","level":3,"score":0.2660999894142151},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C178131030","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q631360","display_name":"Price index","level":2,"score":0.2623000144958496},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780576858","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3359379","display_name":"Bank reserves","level":5,"score":0.26010000705718994},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C40993552","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q514654","display_name":"Gold standard (test)","level":2,"score":0.2581999897956848}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.23813248","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23813248","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23813248","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"JournalArticle"},{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.23813249","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23813249","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23813249","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"JournalArticle"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.23813248","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23813248","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23813248","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"JournalArticle"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7224771509","https://openalex.org/W4417410519","https://openalex.org/W4225151072","https://openalex.org/W7214202371","https://openalex.org/W7214802629","https://openalex.org/W3091921909","https://openalex.org/W7199021809","https://openalex.org/W7000822253","https://openalex.org/W7220742879","https://openalex.org/W4387355903"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Gold":[0],"rose":[1],"from":[2],"71%":[3],"to":[4,35,48,84],"90%":[5],"of":[6,21,69],"Uzbekistan's":[7],"international":[8],"reserves":[9,33,76],"between":[10],"January":[11],"2024":[12],"and":[13,37,41,60,90],"October":[14],"2026.":[15],"This":[16],"thesis":[17],"assesses":[18],"how":[19,31,42],"much":[20],"the":[22,44,70,92],"recent":[23],"reserve":[24,82],"build-up":[25],"is":[26,47,98],"valuation":[27],"rather":[28],"than":[29],"accumulation,":[30],"sensitive":[32],"are":[34],"gold":[36,85],"cotton":[38],"price":[39,79],"shocks,":[40],"large":[43],"downside":[45],"risk":[46],"end-2027.":[49],"An":[50],"exact":[51],"price\u2013volume":[52],"decomposition,":[53],"a":[54,61,78],"dynamic":[55],"reserve-growth":[56],"model":[57],"for":[58,95],"2002\u20132025":[59],"conformally":[62],"calibrated":[63],"block-bootstrap":[64],"forecast":[65],"show":[66],"that":[67,81,91],"76%":[68],"USD":[71,99],"32.0":[72],"billion":[73],"rise":[74],"in":[75],"was":[77],"effect,":[80],"sensitivity":[83],"nearly":[86],"doubled":[87],"after":[88],"2017,":[89],"5%":[93],"Reserves-at-Risk":[94],"December":[96],"2027":[97],"49.7":[100],"billion.":[101]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-04T10:54:05.112534","created_date":"2026-10-31T00:00:00"}
