{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7224480208","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23750601","title":"Is Higher Inflation More Variable? Evidence from 151 Economies, 1996\u20132025, a Regime-Mixture Proof That the Link Can Arise Without Causation, and an Exact Split into Shock Size and Persistence","display_name":"Is Higher Inflation More Variable? Evidence from 151 Economies, 1996\u20132025, a Regime-Mixture Proof That the Link Can Arise Without Causation, and an Exact Split into Shock Size and Persistence","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-10-29","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7224480208","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23750601"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.23750601","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23750601","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23750601","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23750601","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5159002730","display_name":"Manoj Kumar Aguru","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4405266258","display_name":"Chaitanya","ror":"https://ror.org/01m1bpg27","country_code":"IN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4405266258"]}],"countries":["IN"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Aguru, Manoj Kumar","raw_affiliation_strings":["Former Officer, Chaitanya Godavari Grameena Bank (CGGB)"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Former Officer, Chaitanya Godavari Grameena Bank (CGGB)","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4405266258"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5159002730"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4405266258"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11059","display_name":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","score":0.00019999999494757503,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11742","display_name":"Economic Theory and Policy","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/inflation-volatility","display_name":"inflation volatility","score":0.8709999918937683},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/inflation-persistence","display_name":"inflation persistence","score":0.7110000252723694},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/law-of-total-variance","display_name":"law of total variance","score":0.8669999837875366},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/inflation-shocks","display_name":"inflation shocks","score":0.628000020980835},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ar-1-model","display_name":"AR(1) model","score":0.7179999947547913},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecast-error","display_name":"forecast error","score":0.6039999723434448},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/friedman","display_name":"Friedman","score":0.4580000042915344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cpi-inflation","display_name":"CPI inflation","score":0.7739999890327454}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C22679943","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q159375","display_name":"Standard deviation","level":2,"score":0.7628999948501587},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C200941418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q273508","display_name":"Inflation (cosmology)","level":2,"score":0.7390000224113464},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.5788999795913696},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.5723000168800354},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.5472999811172485},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.47209998965263367},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18747219","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q620994","display_name":"Standard error","level":2,"score":0.45239999890327454},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44648626","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1049848","display_name":"Percentage point","level":2,"score":0.4359000027179718},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C164226766","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7293202","display_name":"Rank (graph theory)","level":2,"score":0.42080000042915344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781009140","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7170389","display_name":"Persistence (discontinuity)","level":2,"score":0.4059999883174896},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781300812","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q178061","display_name":"Shock (circulatory)","level":2,"score":0.4016000032424927},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C182365436","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q50701","display_name":"Variable (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.3968999981880188},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C116714509","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q32278","display_name":"Truncated mean","level":3,"score":0.3677999973297119},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C9490382","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q729113","display_name":"Weighted arithmetic mean","level":2,"score":0.35830000042915344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C28719098","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q44946","display_name":"Point (geometry)","level":2,"score":0.3231000006198883},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154815372","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1140421","display_name":"Real interest rate","level":3,"score":0.2913999855518341},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C120934525","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q849149","display_name":"Absolute deviation","level":2,"score":0.29010000824928284},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2993702802","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q35865","display_name":"Inflation rate","level":3,"score":0.28619998693466187},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165556158","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q83937","display_name":"Keynesian economics","level":1,"score":0.2827000021934509},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C101454708","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17106019","display_name":"Standard Model (mathematical formulation)","level":3,"score":0.26750001311302185},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185782297","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2142538","display_name":"Relative price","level":2,"score":0.2671000063419342},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C101601086","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3753228","display_name":"Rank correlation","level":2,"score":0.25859999656677246},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77170095","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1753188","display_name":"Linearity","level":2,"score":0.2581000030040741}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.23750601","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23750601","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23750601","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.23750602","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23750602","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23750602","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.23750601","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23750601","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23750601","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7096297391","https://openalex.org/W2140620817","https://openalex.org/W1587877305","https://openalex.org/W1230674454","https://openalex.org/W1521785103","https://openalex.org/W2090243303","https://openalex.org/W1545455687","https://openalex.org/W2066458532","https://openalex.org/W2171530389","https://openalex.org/W2289563534"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Friedman":[0],"argued":[1],"in":[2,28,99,125,198],"his":[3],"Nobel":[4],"lecture":[5],"that":[6,32,48,79,92,106],"high":[7],"inflation":[8,19,40,70,124,183,189],"tends":[9],"to":[10],"be":[11],"variable":[12],"inflation.":[13],"Using":[14],"World":[15],"Bank":[16],"annual":[17],"CPI":[18,188],"for":[20,55,132],"151":[21],"economies":[22],"with":[23,57,68,192],"at":[24],"least":[25],"28":[26],"observations":[27],"1996\u20132025,":[29],"I":[30,75],"find":[31],"the":[33,49,58,81,85,148,163,168,200,205,209],"rank":[34],"correlation":[35],"between":[36],"a":[37,90,94,100,104,111,118,133,193],"country's":[38],"mean":[39,60,69,105,201],"and":[41,47,110,144,160,204],"its":[42,212],"standard":[43,51,113,194,206],"deviation":[44,52,114,195,207],"is":[45,128],"0.857,":[46],"log":[50,59],"rises":[53,107,175],"one":[54,56],"(slope":[61],"0.9954,":[62],"se":[63,185],"0.0749;":[64],"0.7387":[65],"among":[66],"countries":[67],"of":[71,87,97,115,181,196,211],"10%":[72],"or":[73],"less).":[74],"prove":[76],"two":[77],"results":[78],"sharpen":[80],"interpretation.":[82],"First,":[83],"by":[84,108,176],"law":[86],"total":[88],"variance,":[89],"country":[91],"spends":[93],"share":[95],"p":[96],"years":[98],"high-inflation":[101],"regime":[102,127],"has":[103],"p\u0394":[109],"between-regime":[112],"\u0394\u221a(p(1\u2212p)),":[116],"so":[117],"cross-country":[119,149],"link":[120],"appears":[121],"even":[122],"if":[123],"each":[126],"equally":[129],"predictable.":[130],"Second,":[131],"stationary":[134],"AR(1),":[135],"ln":[136,139],"sd":[137],"=":[138],"\u03c3\u2091":[140],"\u2212":[141],"\u00bd":[142],"ln(1\u2212\u03c1\u00b2),":[143],"OLS":[145],"linearity":[146],"splits":[147],"slope":[150],"exactly:":[151],"0.8386":[152],"comes":[153],"from":[154,158,162],"larger":[155],"shocks,":[156],"0.0456":[157],"persistence":[159],"0.1113":[161],"small-sample":[164],"remainder.":[165],"Within":[166],"countries,":[167],"absolute":[169],"AR(1)":[170],"forecast":[171],"error":[172],"next":[173],"year":[174],"0.2115":[177],"points":[178],"per":[179],"point":[180],"current":[182],"(cluster":[184],"0.0360).":[186],"India's":[187],"averaged":[190],"6.29%":[191],"2.78;":[197],"2016\u20132025":[199],"was":[202],"4.74%":[203],"1.40,":[208],"lowest":[210],"three":[213],"decades.":[214]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-10-31T12:09:11.096373","created_date":"2026-10-30T00:00:00"}
