{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7224115159","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2610.36186","title":"Towards operational data-driven regional weather forecasting: extreme-event skill and near-real-time verification with HRRRCast","display_name":"Towards operational data-driven regional weather forecasting: extreme-event skill and near-real-time verification with HRRRCast","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-10-26","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7224115159","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2610.36186"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2610.36186","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.36186","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.36186","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["arxiv","datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.36186","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5062150702","display_name":"Daniel Abdi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0671-2941","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0671-2941"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I161675122","display_name":"Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences","ror":"https://ror.org/00bdqav06","country_code":"US","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1308126019","https://openalex.org/I1343035065","https://openalex.org/I161675122","https://openalex.org/I188538660","https://openalex.org/I2802992173"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Abdi, Daniel","raw_affiliation_strings":["CIRES/GSL"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"CIRES/GSL","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I161675122"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5085236612","display_name":"Isidora Jankov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0431-2357","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0431-2357"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jankov, Isidora","raw_affiliation_strings":["CIRA/GSL"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"CIRA/GSL","institution_ids":[]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5101905410","display_name":"Vanderlei Vargas","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1179-5297","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1179-5297"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Vargas, Vanderlei","raw_affiliation_strings":["CIRA/GSL"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"CIRA/GSL","institution_ids":[]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5012324269","display_name":"Paul Madden","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6283-6378","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6283-6378"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I161675122","display_name":"Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences","ror":"https://ror.org/00bdqav06","country_code":"US","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1308126019","https://openalex.org/I1343035065","https://openalex.org/I161675122","https://openalex.org/I188538660","https://openalex.org/I2802992173"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Madden, Paul","raw_affiliation_strings":["CIRES/GSL"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"CIRES/GSL","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I161675122"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5031171316","display_name":"Emily Carpenter","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I161675122","display_name":"Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences","ror":"https://ror.org/00bdqav06","country_code":"US","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1308126019","https://openalex.org/I1343035065","https://openalex.org/I161675122","https://openalex.org/I188538660","https://openalex.org/I2802992173"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Carpenter, Emily","raw_affiliation_strings":["CIRES/GSL"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"CIRES/GSL","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I161675122"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5160048104","display_name":"Travis Wilson","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I161675122","display_name":"Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences","ror":"https://ror.org/00bdqav06","country_code":"US","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1308126019","https://openalex.org/I1343035065","https://openalex.org/I161675122","https://openalex.org/I188538660","https://openalex.org/I2802992173"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Wilson, Travis","raw_affiliation_strings":["CIRES/GSL"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"CIRES/GSL","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I161675122"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5160031034","display_name":"Jeff Hamilton","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Hamilton, Jeff","raw_affiliation_strings":["CIRA/GSL"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"CIRA/GSL","institution_ids":[]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5160005743","display_name":"Molly Smith","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I161675122","display_name":"Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences","ror":"https://ror.org/00bdqav06","country_code":"US","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1308126019","https://openalex.org/I1343035065","https://openalex.org/I161675122","https://openalex.org/I188538660","https://openalex.org/I2802992173"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Smith, Molly","raw_affiliation_strings":["CIRES/GSL"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"CIRES/GSL","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I161675122"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5160033774","display_name":"Lindsay Blank","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Blank, Lindsay","raw_affiliation_strings":["CIRA/GSL"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"CIRA/GSL","institution_ids":[]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5070056642","display_name":"Linlin Cui","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0000-7997-9845","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0000-7997-9845"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I161675122","display_name":"Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences","ror":"https://ror.org/00bdqav06","country_code":"US","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1308126019","https://openalex.org/I1343035065","https://openalex.org/I161675122","https://openalex.org/I188538660","https://openalex.org/I2802992173"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Cui, Linlin","raw_affiliation_strings":["CIRES/GSL"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"CIRES/GSL","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I161675122"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5159993219","display_name":"Jun Wang","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1308126019","display_name":"National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration","ror":"https://ror.org/02z5nhe81","country_code":"US","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1308126019","https://openalex.org/I1343035065"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I161675122","display_name":"Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences","ror":"https://ror.org/00bdqav06","country_code":"US","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1308126019","https://openalex.org/I1343035065","https://openalex.org/I161675122","https://openalex.org/I188538660","https://openalex.org/I2802992173"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4387930204","display_name":"NOAA Global Systems Laboratory","ror":"https://ror.org/006ddyp05","country_code":"US","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1308126019","https://openalex.org/I1343035065","https://openalex.org/I2802992173","https://openalex.org/I4387930204","https://openalex.org/I80605987"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4405266766","display_name":"Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere","ror":"https://ror.org/05dsxms80","country_code":"US","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1308126019","https://openalex.org/I1343035065","https://openalex.org/I4210089050","https://openalex.org/I4405266766","https://openalex.org/I92446798"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4405268665","display_name":"NOAA Office of Modeling and Development","ror":"https://ror.org/01pbt4y78","country_code":"US","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1308126019","https://openalex.org/I1343035065","https://openalex.org/I4210095787","https://openalex.org/I4405268665"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Wang, Jun","raw_affiliation_strings":["CIRES = Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences ; CIRA = Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere ; NOAA-GSL = NOAA Global Systems Laboratory ; NOAA-OMD = NOAA Office of Model Development","NOAA-OMD"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"CIRES = Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences ; CIRA = Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere ; NOAA-GSL = NOAA Global Systems Laboratory ; NOAA-OMD = NOAA Office of Model Development","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1308126019","https://openalex.org/I161675122","https://openalex.org/I4387930204","https://openalex.org/I4405266766","https://openalex.org/I4405268665"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"NOAA-OMD","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1308126019"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5160011823","display_name":"Matthew Mahalik","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1308126019","display_name":"National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration","ror":"https://ror.org/02z5nhe81","country_code":"US","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1308126019","https://openalex.org/I1343035065"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4387930204","display_name":"NOAA Global Systems Laboratory","ror":"https://ror.org/006ddyp05","country_code":"US","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1308126019","https://openalex.org/I1343035065","https://openalex.org/I2802992173","https://openalex.org/I4387930204","https://openalex.org/I80605987"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mahalik, Matthew","raw_affiliation_strings":["NOAA-GSL"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"NOAA-GSL","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1308126019","https://openalex.org/I4387930204"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":5,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10466","display_name":"Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10466","display_name":"Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11234","display_name":"Precipitation Measurement and Analysis","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11490","display_name":"Hydrological Forecasting Using AI","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2305","display_name":"Environmental Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/high-resolution-rapid-refresh","display_name":"HRRR","score":0.8109999895095825},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/convective-scale-forecasting","display_name":"convective-scale forecasting","score":0.5149999856948853},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/rainfall-prediction","display_name":"precipitation forecasting","score":0.5619999766349792},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/reflectivity","display_name":"reflectivity","score":0.5680000185966492},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/storm-structure","display_name":"storm structure","score":0.4909999966621399}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C70437156","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7228652","display_name":"Pooling","level":2,"score":0.798799991607666},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C170061395","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5468164","display_name":"Forecast skill","level":2,"score":0.5831000208854675},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5654000043869019},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777211547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17141490","display_name":"Training (meteorology)","level":2,"score":0.5608000159263611},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107054158","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25257","display_name":"Precipitation","level":2,"score":0.5389999747276306},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.5246000289916992},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105306849","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q81054","display_name":"Storm","level":2,"score":0.4779999852180481},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C48677424","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6888088","display_name":"Mode (computer interface)","level":2,"score":0.4546000063419342},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C108597893","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q663650","display_name":"Reflectivity","level":2,"score":0.446399986743927},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.42089998722076416},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.40549999475479126},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.3474000096321106},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C142575187","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3358290","display_name":"Pyramid (geometry)","level":2,"score":0.3418000042438507},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.26840001344680786},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44154836","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q45045","display_name":"Simulation","level":1,"score":0.258899986743927},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C122282355","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7246855","display_name":"Probabilistic forecasting","level":3,"score":0.25369998812675476},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.2526000142097473},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C182365436","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q50701","display_name":"Variable (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.251800000667572}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2610.36186","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.36186","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.36186","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2610.36186","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2610.36186","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2610.36186","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2610.36186","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.36186","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.36186","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Climate action","score":0.75,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G1210143868","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"NA24OARX432C0007","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320332181","funder_display_name":"National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G1846624781","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"NA22OAR4320151","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337784","funder_display_name":"NOAA Research"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G6872371035","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"NA24OARX405C0022","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320332181","funder_display_name":"National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G7198630863","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"NA22OAR4320151","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320332181","funder_display_name":"National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G9000359319","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"NA24OARX432C0007","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337784","funder_display_name":"NOAA Research"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320332181","display_name":"National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration","ror":"https://ror.org/02z5nhe81"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337784","display_name":"NOAA Research","ror":"https://ror.org/02kgve346"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7224115159.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7224115159.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":20,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W2625614184","https://openalex.org/W2951559372","https://openalex.org/W3007315478","https://openalex.org/W3202525453","https://openalex.org/W4281788506","https://openalex.org/W4380551082","https://openalex.org/W4399791428","https://openalex.org/W4410496915","https://openalex.org/W4413766817","https://openalex.org/W4415274413","https://openalex.org/W4415798385","https://openalex.org/W4416060956","https://openalex.org/W4417355657","https://openalex.org/W4417398361","https://openalex.org/W7083165258","https://openalex.org/W7125802363","https://openalex.org/W7166873581","https://openalex.org/W7168272337","https://openalex.org/W7204597041","https://openalex.org/W7212127155"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4416060956","https://openalex.org/W4281478270","https://openalex.org/W4281788506","https://openalex.org/W1848135947","https://openalex.org/W4400950271","https://openalex.org/W3023356956","https://openalex.org/W3210370123","https://openalex.org/W2142333383","https://openalex.org/W4406819641","https://openalex.org/W2793074030"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Improving":[0],"convective-scale":[1],"skill":[2,89,105,156,165,180],"in":[3,24,122,192],"data-driven":[4,35],"regional":[5],"weather":[6],"models":[7],"requires":[8],"better":[9,173,221],"representing":[10],"rare":[11],"high-impact":[12],"events,":[13],"training":[14,68,95],"at":[15,107,159,162,169,174],"native":[16,49],"resolution,":[17,78],"broadening":[18],"variable":[19],"output,":[20],"and":[21,58,60,81,101,147,151,172,186],"demonstrating":[22],"performance":[23],"real-time":[25],"settings.":[26],"Here,":[27],"we":[28],"evaluate":[29],"these":[30],"challenges":[31],"using":[32],"HRRRCast,":[33],"a":[34,216],"convection-allowing":[36],"emulator":[37],"trained":[38],"on":[39],"the":[40,67,126,193],"High-Resolution":[41],"Rapid":[42],"Refresh":[43],"(HRRR)":[44],"analysis":[45],"data.":[46],"HRRRCast":[47,117,136,214],"combines":[48],"3-km":[50],"training,":[51],"moderate":[52],"sigmoid-weighted":[53],"loss":[54,86],"reweighting":[55],"for":[56,125,208],"reflectivity":[57,152,155],"precipitation,":[59],"broader":[61],"system":[62],"improvements":[63],"including":[64],"expansion":[65],"of":[66,132],"archive":[69],"from":[70,98],"3":[71,190],"to":[72,144,188],"9":[73],"years":[74],"(2016--2025),":[75],"increased":[76],"vertical":[77],"expanded":[79],"outputs,":[80],"architectural":[82],"upgrades.":[83],"The":[84],"weighted":[85],"improves":[87,103],"high-threshold":[88],"while":[90],"preserving":[91],"common-event":[92],"behavior.":[93],"Native-resolution":[94],"avoids":[96],"aliasing":[97],"6-km":[99,170],"subsampling":[100],"substantially":[102],"fractions":[104],"score":[106],"convective":[108],"scales,":[109],"with":[110,200,219],"gains":[111],"that":[112],"persist":[113],"across":[114],"pooling":[115,171,175],"windows.":[116],"has":[118],"also":[119],"been":[120],"running":[121],"near-real-time":[123],"mode":[124],"past":[127],"year.":[128],"In":[129],"seven":[130],"months":[131],"independent":[133],"observation-based":[134],"verification,":[135],"ensemble":[137],"means":[138],"improve":[139],"several":[140],"near-surface":[141],"metrics":[142],"relative":[143],"operational":[145],"HRRR":[146],"maintain":[148],"strong":[149],"precipitation":[150],"performance.":[153],"Single-member":[154],"is":[157,166],"strongest":[158],"20--30":[160],"dBZ;":[161],"40":[163],"dBZ,":[164],"near":[167],"parity":[168],"radii":[176],"$\\geq$30":[177],"km.":[178],"Precipitation":[179],"remains":[181],"competitive":[182],"through":[183],"1":[184],"in/h":[185,191],"extends":[187],"about":[189],"best":[194],"recent":[195],"configuration.":[196],"A":[197],"focused":[198],"comparison":[199],"HREF":[201],"further":[202],"shows":[203],"useful":[204],"low-cost":[205],"probabilistic":[206],"guidance":[207],"3-h":[209],"precipitation.":[210],"At":[211],"storm":[212,222,225],"scale,":[213],"exhibits":[215],"displacement--structure":[217],"trade-off,":[218],"generally":[220],"placement":[223],"than":[224],"morphology.":[226]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2026-10-29T00:00:00"}