{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7224089932","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2610.36084","title":"Not Just Why, but When and for Whom: Revisiting Common Estimands in Causal Inference","display_name":"Not Just Why, but When and for Whom: Revisiting Common Estimands in Causal Inference","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-10-26","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7224089932","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2610.36084"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2610.36084","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.36084","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.36084","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["arxiv","datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.36084","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5038439834","display_name":"Lucius Bynum","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9247-2595","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9247-2595"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I57206974","display_name":"New York University","ror":"https://ror.org/0190ak572","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I57206974"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Bynum, Lucius E. J.","raw_affiliation_strings":["Center for Data Science , New York University"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Center for Data Science , New York University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I57206974"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5138356728","display_name":"George Perrett","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I57206974","display_name":"New York University","ror":"https://ror.org/0190ak572","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I57206974"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Perrett, George","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Applied Statistics, Social Science, and the Humanities ; New York University"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Applied Statistics, Social Science, and the Humanities ; New York University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I57206974"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5010372626","display_name":"Marc A. Scott","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1537-0894","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1537-0894"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I57206974","display_name":"New York University","ror":"https://ror.org/0190ak572","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I57206974"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Scott, Marc A.","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Applied Statistics, Social Science, and the Humanities ; New York University"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Applied Statistics, Social Science, and the Humanities ; New York University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I57206974"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5022860483","display_name":"Jennifer Hill","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4983-2206","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4983-2206"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I57206974","display_name":"New York University","ror":"https://ror.org/0190ak572","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I57206974"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Hill, Jennifer L.","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Applied Statistics, Social Science, and the Humanities ; New York University"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Applied Statistics, Social Science, and the Humanities ; New York University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I57206974"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I57206974"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10845","display_name":"Advanced Causal Inference Techniques","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10845","display_name":"Advanced Causal Inference Techniques","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11235","display_name":"Statistical Methods in Clinical Trials","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10243","display_name":"Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/causal-estimands","display_name":"causal estimands","score":0.8679999709129333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/average-treatment-effect","display_name":"average treatment effect","score":0.765999972820282},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/conditional-average-treatment-effect","display_name":"conditional average treatment effect","score":0.8289999961853027},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/individual-treatment-effects","display_name":"individual treatment effects","score":0.8059999942779541},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/time-varying-treatment-effects","display_name":"time-varying treatment effects","score":0.7459999918937683},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/measurement-error","display_name":"measurement error","score":0.597000002861023},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/uncertainty-quantification","display_name":"uncertainty quantification","score":0.6890000104904175},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/coverage-probability","display_name":"coverage probability","score":0.4779999852180481},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/randomized-controlled-trials","display_name":"randomized controlled trials","score":0.7649999856948853}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C158600405","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5054566","display_name":"Causal inference","level":2,"score":0.6629999876022339},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776214188","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q408386","display_name":"Inference","level":2,"score":0.5949000120162964},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C187029079","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q958679","display_name":"Cognitive reframing","level":2,"score":0.5558000206947327},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C12713177","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1900281","display_name":"Perspective (graphical)","level":2,"score":0.4900999963283539},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.4828000068664551},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777212361","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5127848","display_name":"Class (philosophy)","level":2,"score":0.4659000039100647},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.4652000069618225},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778334786","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1586270","display_name":"Variation (astronomy)","level":2,"score":0.4372999966144562},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11671645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5054567","display_name":"Causal model","level":2,"score":0.3968000113964081},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C117251300","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1849855","display_name":"Parametric statistics","level":2,"score":0.3928999900817871},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C155108698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1231081","display_name":"Randomized experiment","level":2,"score":0.3714999854564667},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C198531522","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q485146","display_name":"Sample (material)","level":2,"score":0.3659999966621399},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C163504300","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2364925","display_name":"Causal structure","level":2,"score":0.35339999198913574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134261354","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q938438","display_name":"Statistical inference","level":2,"score":0.35269999504089355},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C148220186","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7111912","display_name":"Outcome (game theory)","level":2,"score":0.3407000005245209},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162376815","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2158281","display_name":"Frequentist inference","level":4,"score":0.29980000853538513},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780586882","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7520643","display_name":"Simple (philosophy)","level":2,"score":0.27639999985694885},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C87007009","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q210832","display_name":"Statistical hypothesis testing","level":2,"score":0.271699994802475},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C61797465","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1188986","display_name":"Term (time)","level":2,"score":0.2685000002384186},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C64357122","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1149766","display_name":"Causality (physics)","level":2,"score":0.2671999931335449},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.2628999948501587},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C129848803","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2564360","display_name":"Sample size determination","level":2,"score":0.25600001215934753}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2610.36084","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.36084","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.36084","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2610.36084","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2610.36084","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2610.36084","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2610.36084","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.36084","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.36084","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7224089932.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7224089932.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":14,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1513261862","https://openalex.org/W1978207434","https://openalex.org/W2121756366","https://openalex.org/W2126292488","https://openalex.org/W2411541850","https://openalex.org/W2541714257","https://openalex.org/W2772202324","https://openalex.org/W2921706532","https://openalex.org/W3103349836","https://openalex.org/W3201619785","https://openalex.org/W4238126413","https://openalex.org/W4382317960","https://openalex.org/W4416050313","https://openalex.org/W7117581621"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4409906500","https://openalex.org/W7128521914","https://openalex.org/W3007725977","https://openalex.org/W7098206107","https://openalex.org/W4416099956","https://openalex.org/W1949240340","https://openalex.org/W3188056366","https://openalex.org/W2288347922","https://openalex.org/W6945970856","https://openalex.org/W7213411282"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Causal":[0],"inference":[1,82],"commonly":[2],"defines":[3],"an":[4,173,250],"individual":[5,103],"treatment":[6,66,104,267],"effect":[7,174],"as":[8,97,110],"a":[9,22,58,88,137,185,194,246],"quantity":[10],"that":[11,71,156,261],"varies":[12],"across":[13,30],"units.":[14],"But":[15],"we":[16,49,133,207],"know":[17],"such":[18,52,96],"effects,":[19,67],"even":[20,42,159,205,225],"for":[21,60,160,215],"fixed":[23,146],"unit,":[24],"can":[25,41,168,212],"also":[26,86],"vary":[27],"over":[28,34],"time,":[29],"repeated":[31],"studies,":[32],"or":[33,164,177],"different":[35,157],"methods":[36],"of":[37,55,64,90,115,126,203,229,253],"measurement,":[38],"and":[39,102,108,148,191,217,234],"they":[40],"exhibit":[43],"inherent":[44],"stochasticity.":[45],"In":[46],"this":[47,127,241],"work,":[48],"consider":[50],"how":[51,197],"additional":[53],"sources":[54,202],"variation":[56,116],"create":[57],"need":[59],"more":[61,76,113],"general":[62],"notions":[63],"average":[65],"including":[68],"some":[69],"estimands":[70],"have":[72,134],"yet":[73],"to":[74,112,244],"be":[75,213,263],"formally":[77],"explored":[78],"by":[79],"the":[80,130,161,165,210,227],"causal":[81],"community.":[83],"This":[84],"perspective":[85],"motivates":[87],"reconceptualization":[89],"our":[91,198],"most":[92],"common":[93],"existing":[94],"estimands,":[95,158],"conditional":[98],"average,":[99,101],"sample":[100],"effects":[105],"(CATEs,":[106],"SATEs,":[107],"ITEs),":[109],"subject":[111],"axes":[114],"than":[117],"are":[118,237],"typically":[119],"considered.":[120],"We":[121,154,179],"explore":[122],"two":[123],"main":[124],"consequences":[125],"reframing":[128],"in":[129,145,226],"case":[131,186],"where":[132,231],"data":[135,190],"from":[136],"single":[138],"randomized":[139],"controlled":[140],"trial:":[141],"(1)":[142],"decision":[143],"making":[144],"samples":[147],"(2)":[149],"uncertainty":[150],"quantification":[151],"during":[152],"estimation.":[153],"find":[155],"same":[162,166],"unit":[163],"sample,":[167],"qualitatively":[169],"disagree":[170],"on":[171],"whether":[172],"is":[175],"positive":[176],"negative.":[178],"demonstrate":[180],"these":[181,201,222],"issues":[182],"empirically":[183],"through":[184,193],"study":[187,196],"with":[188],"real":[189],"characterize":[192],"simulation":[195],"assumptions":[199,236,254,256],"about":[200,257],"variation,":[204,211],"if":[206],"cannot":[208],"observe":[209],"consequential":[214],"estimation":[216],"proper":[218],"coverage":[219],"performance.":[220],"Importantly,":[221],"phenomena":[223],"arise":[224],"simplest":[228],"cases,":[230],"all":[232],"structural":[233],"parametric":[235],"satisfied.":[238],"More":[239],"broadly,":[240],"paper":[242],"aims":[243],"provide":[245],"preliminary":[247],"investigation":[248],"into":[249],"underexplored":[251],"class":[252],"---":[255,260],"unobserved":[258],"non-confounders":[259],"should":[262],"considered":[264],"when":[265],"estimating":[266],"effects.":[268]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2026-10-29T00:00:00"}