{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7223998284","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23679802","title":"A microseismicity precursor to M \u2265 5.5 earthquakes replicates across four independent zone sets in compressive tectonic regimes","display_name":"A microseismicity precursor to M \u2265 5.5 earthquakes replicates across four independent zone sets in compressive tectonic regimes","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-10-27","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7223998284","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23679802"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.23679802","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23679802","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23679802","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23679802","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5140947424","display_name":"Umberto Pappadia","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0002-4392-7845","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0002-4392-7845"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Pappadia, Umberto Junior","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0002-4392-7845","affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5140947424"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12424","display_name":"Earthquake Detection and Analysis","score":0.6435999870300293,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1908","display_name":"Geophysics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12424","display_name":"Earthquake Detection and Analysis","score":0.6435999870300293,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1908","display_name":"Geophysics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10110","display_name":"earthquake and tectonic studies","score":0.2870999872684479,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1908","display_name":"Geophysics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13018","display_name":"Seismology and Earthquake Studies","score":0.05139999836683273,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/event-ranking","display_name":"event ranking","score":0.6240000128746033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/earthquake-precursors","display_name":"earthquake precursors","score":0.6380000114440918},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/microseismicity","display_name":"microseismicity","score":0.8809999823570251},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/etas-model","display_name":"ETAS model","score":0.656000018119812},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/replication","display_name":"replication","score":0.3230000138282776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/earthquake-prediction","display_name":"earthquake prediction","score":0.5239999890327454},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/information-gain","display_name":"information gain","score":0.4569999873638153},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/seismicity-rate","display_name":"seismicity rate","score":0.32100000977516174},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/preregistration","display_name":"preregistration","score":0.44200000166893005},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/earthquake-sequence","display_name":"earthquake sequence","score":0.36800000071525574}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185798385","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1161707","display_name":"Benchmark (surveying)","level":2,"score":0.6446999907493591},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165205528","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q83371","display_name":"Seismology","level":1,"score":0.6215999722480774},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C83176761","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1394636","display_name":"Induced seismicity","level":2,"score":0.6018999814987183},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127313418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1069","display_name":"Geology","level":0,"score":0.5989999771118164},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779662365","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5416694","display_name":"Event (particle physics)","level":2,"score":0.5407999753952026},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.47040000557899475},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77928131","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q193343","display_name":"Tectonics","level":2,"score":0.42170000076293945},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C180016635","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2712821","display_name":"Compression (physics)","level":2,"score":0.3765000104904175},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C45340560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q215382","display_name":"Disjoint sets","level":2,"score":0.37439998984336853},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C58489278","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1172284","display_name":"Data set","level":2,"score":0.3621000051498413},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C87007009","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q210832","display_name":"Statistical hypothesis testing","level":2,"score":0.35690000653266907},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776760102","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5139990","display_name":"Code (set theory)","level":3,"score":0.3310999870300293},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177264268","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1514741","display_name":"Set (abstract data type)","level":2,"score":0.3285999894142151},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C193244246","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5432696","display_name":"False discovery rate","level":3,"score":0.32190001010894775},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C114289077","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3284399","display_name":"Statistical model","level":2,"score":0.3066999912261963},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.29899999499320984},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777382242","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6017816","display_name":"Index (typography)","level":2,"score":0.2888999879360199},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C140779682","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q210868","display_name":"Sampling (signal processing)","level":3,"score":0.2851000130176544},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C120894424","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1322871","display_name":"Exploratory data analysis","level":2,"score":0.2816999852657318},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C182365436","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q50701","display_name":"Variable (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.27900001406669617},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C61797465","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1188986","display_name":"Term (time)","level":2,"score":0.2597000002861023},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2986587452","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q938438","display_name":"Statistical analysis","level":2,"score":0.2556999921798706}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.23679802","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23679802","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23679802","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.23679803","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23679803","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23679803","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article-journal"},{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.23684249","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23684249","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23684249","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.23679802","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23679802","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23679802","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7166515584","https://openalex.org/W7162520223","https://openalex.org/W2948682699","https://openalex.org/W2604754918","https://openalex.org/W7155504239","https://openalex.org/W2027701123","https://openalex.org/W7166547321","https://openalex.org/W7171665481","https://openalex.org/W3172242585","https://openalex.org/W2096830178"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Whether":[0],"precursory":[1],"seismicity":[2,46],"carries":[3,259],"usable":[4],"information":[5,262],"on":[6,56,250,263],"forthcoming":[7],"earthquakes":[8,271],"has":[9],"been":[10],"debated":[11],"for":[12],"four":[13,61,73],"decades,":[14],"and":[15,93,110,117,148,177,225],"a":[16,28,35,88,94,99,210,221,227,235],"2014":[17],"meta-":[18],"analysis":[19],"concluded":[20],"that":[21,47,102],"the":[22,40,118,127,134,191,198,245,251,264],"question":[23],"remained":[24],"open":[25],"because":[26],"of":[27,30,39,44,50,153,190,244,256,267],"lack":[29],"replication.":[31],"We":[32],"evaluated":[33],"P-HRI,":[34],"proprietary":[36],"composite":[37],"index":[38,246],"30-day":[41,211],"temporal":[42,254],"structure":[43,255],"daily":[45],"is":[48],"independent":[49],"event":[51,273],"rate,":[52],"with":[53,79,106],"fixed":[54],"weights,":[55],"1,951,464":[57],"catalogued":[58],"events":[59],"from":[60],"networks":[62],"(USGS,":[63],"INGV,":[64],"GeoNet,":[65],"EMSC)":[66],"in":[67,72,133,149],"101":[68],"circular":[69],"zones":[70,155,189],"organised":[71],"disjoint":[74],"sets.":[75],"Skill":[76],"was":[77,216],"measured":[78],"Molchan":[80,292],"error-diagram":[81],"areas":[82],"(\ud835\udc34;":[83],"0.5":[84],"=":[85,202],"chance)":[86],"against":[87],"rate":[89],"benchmark":[90,200],"(30-day":[91],"count)":[92],"standard-parameter":[95],"ETAS-type":[96,199],"benchmark,":[97],"under":[98],"fair-evaluation":[100],"design":[101],"excludes":[103],"ongoing":[104],"sequences,":[105],"bootstrap":[107],"confidence":[108],"intervals":[109],"hash-certified":[111],"preregistration.":[112],"Pooled":[113],"across":[114],"regimes,":[115,124],"P-HRI":[116,125,195],"count":[119,128],"were":[120],"indistinguishable.":[121],"In":[122],"compressive":[123],"outperformed":[126,197],"at":[129],"M":[130,268],"\u2265":[131,269],"5.5":[132,270],"exploratory":[135],"set":[136],"(\u0394\ud835\udc34=":[137],"\u22120.048,":[138],"95%":[139],"CI":[140],"\u22120.073":[141],"to":[142,163,171,180,219],"\u22120.020;":[143],"20":[144],"zones,":[145,166,174,183],"225":[146],"targets)":[147,176],"three":[150,193],"further":[151],"sets":[152],"never-analysed":[154],"defined":[156],"before":[157],"data":[158],"download:":[159],"\u0394\ud835\udc34=":[160],"\u22120.079":[161],"(\u22120.094":[162],"\u22120.064;":[164],"28":[165],"541":[167],"targets),":[168],"\u22120.071":[169],"(\u22120.093":[170],"\u22120.046;":[172],"18":[173,182],"229":[175],"\u22120.091":[178],"(\u22120.119":[179],"\u22120.063;":[181],"202":[184],"targets).":[185],"Across":[186],"all":[187],"66":[188],"first":[192,217],"sets,":[194],"also":[196],"(\ud835\udc34":[201],"0.400":[203],"vs":[204],"0.471).":[205],"Four":[206],"probabilistic":[207,279],"analyses,":[208],"including":[209],"information-gain":[212],"test":[213],"whose":[214],"code":[215],"shown":[218],"detect":[220],"perfect":[222],"synthetic":[223],"predictor":[224],"reject":[226],"random":[228],"one,":[229],"found":[230],"no":[231],"measurable":[232],"gain":[233],"over":[234],"zone-fitted":[236],"ETAS":[237,298],"model":[238],"outside":[239],"sequences.":[240],"A":[241],"preregistered":[242],"variant":[243],"did":[247],"not":[248,278],"improve":[249],"original.":[252],"The":[253],"microseismicity":[257,288],"therefore":[258],"replicable,":[260],"regime-dependent":[261],"relative":[265],"likelihood":[266],"beyond":[272],"rate;":[274],"it":[275],"supports":[276],"ranking,":[277],"forecasting":[280,286],"or":[281],"deterministic":[282],"prediction.":[283],"Keywords":[284],"earthquake":[285],"\u00b7":[287,289,291,294,297,299,301],"foreshocks":[290],"diagram":[293],"tectonic":[295],"regime":[296],"replication":[300],"preregistration":[302]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-10-29T09:56:32.521200","created_date":"2026-10-28T00:00:00"}
