{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7223699474","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.649","title":"Forecasting the Burden of Invasive Pneumococcal Disease in Post-Pandemic Ontario, Canada","display_name":"Forecasting the Burden of Invasive Pneumococcal Disease in Post-Pandemic Ontario, Canada","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-10-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7223699474","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.649"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.649","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.649","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.649","pdf_url":"https://academic.oup.com/eurpub/article-pdf/36/Supplement_5/ckag169.649/72462516/ckag169.649.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210220588","display_name":"European Journal of Public Health","issn_l":"1101-1262","issn":["1101-1262","1464-360X"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-b","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-b","doyens","fnege-4","jufo-2","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310311648","host_organization_name":"Oxford University Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310311648","https://openalex.org/P4310311647"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Oxford University Press","University of Oxford"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"European Journal of Public Health","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://academic.oup.com/eurpub/article-pdf/36/Supplement_5/ckag169.649/72462516/ckag169.649.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5159589590","display_name":"G Mathiyalagan","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I79817857","display_name":"University of Guelph","ror":"https://ror.org/01r7awg59","country_code":"CA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I79817857"]}],"countries":["CA"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"G Mathiyalagan","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Population Medicine, University of Guelph , Guelph,"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Population Medicine, University of Guelph , Guelph,","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I79817857"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5159724536","display_name":"O Berke","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I79817857","display_name":"University of Guelph","ror":"https://ror.org/01r7awg59","country_code":"CA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I79817857"]}],"countries":["CA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"O Berke","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Population Medicine, University of Guelph , Guelph,"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Population Medicine, University of Guelph , Guelph,","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I79817857"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5159615550","display_name":"EJ Parmley","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I79817857","display_name":"University of Guelph","ror":"https://ror.org/01r7awg59","country_code":"CA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I79817857"]}],"countries":["CA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"EJ Parmley","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Population Medicine, University of Guelph , Guelph,"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Population Medicine, University of Guelph , Guelph,","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I79817857"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5159660782","display_name":"A McGeer","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1291836623","display_name":"Mount Sinai Hospital","ror":"https://ror.org/05deks119","country_code":"CA","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1291836623","https://openalex.org/I4210130843"]}],"countries":["CA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"A McGeer","raw_affiliation_strings":["Toronto Invasive Bacterial Diseases Network, Mount Sinai Hospital , Toronto,"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Toronto Invasive Bacterial Diseases Network, Mount Sinai Hospital , Toronto,","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1291836623"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5159643046","display_name":"J Slater","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I79817857","display_name":"University of Guelph","ror":"https://ror.org/01r7awg59","country_code":"CA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I79817857"]}],"countries":["CA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"J Slater","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Guelph , Guelph,"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Guelph , Guelph,","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I79817857"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5159589590"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I79817857"],"apc_list":{"value":2815,"currency":"EUR","value_usd":3181},"apc_paid":{"value":2815,"currency":"EUR","value_usd":3181},"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.81955463,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"36","issue":"Supplement_5","first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10654","display_name":"Pneumonia and Respiratory Infections","score":0.9854000210762024,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2713","display_name":"Epidemiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10654","display_name":"Pneumonia and Respiratory Infections","score":0.9854000210762024,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2713","display_name":"Epidemiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10873","display_name":"Bacterial Infections and Vaccines","score":0.0066999997943639755,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2404","display_name":"Microbiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/24","display_name":"Immunology and Microbiology"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/1","display_name":"Life Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.001500000013038516,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/invasive-pneumococcal-disease","display_name":"invasive pneumococcal disease","score":1.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/post-pandemic-resurgence","display_name":"post-pandemic resurgence","score":0.9300000071525574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/disease-burden-forecasting","display_name":"disease burden forecasting","score":0.7620000243186951},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/interrupted-time-series-analysis","display_name":"interrupted time series","score":0.7509999871253967},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/infectious-disease-surveillance","display_name":"infectious disease surveillance","score":0.6859999895095825},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ontario","display_name":"Ontario","score":0.7620000243186951},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/age-specific-incidence-trends","display_name":"age-specific incidence trends","score":0.36800000071525574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sex-differences-in-incidence","display_name":"sex differences in incidence","score":0.46399998664855957}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C61511704","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1671857","display_name":"Incidence (geometry)","level":2,"score":0.7263000011444092},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.7081000208854675},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3020803494","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2712836","display_name":"Pneumococcal disease","level":4,"score":0.6759999990463257},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C24338571","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2566298","display_name":"Autoregressive integrated moving average","level":3,"score":0.6517000198364258},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776152631","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4366062","display_name":"Pneumococcal infections","level":4,"score":0.48330000042915344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.47679999470710754},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138816342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q189603","display_name":"Public health","level":2,"score":0.4020000100135803},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149923435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37732","display_name":"Demography","level":1,"score":0.3971000015735626},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779134260","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12136","display_name":"Disease","level":2,"score":0.3691999912261963},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781253189","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q221179","display_name":"Streptococcus pneumoniae","level":3,"score":0.36629998683929443},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C524204448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q788926","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","level":3,"score":0.3598000109195709},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2987315675","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1773974","display_name":"Disease control","level":2,"score":0.35839998722076416},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C187212893","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q123028","display_name":"Pediatrics","level":1,"score":0.35690000653266907},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780664029","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5282120","display_name":"Disease burden","level":3,"score":0.35280001163482666},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127142870","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7838279","display_name":"Trend analysis","level":2,"score":0.34779998660087585},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107130276","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q133805","display_name":"Epidemiology","level":2,"score":0.3402999937534332},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3020448403","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5282120","display_name":"Burden of disease","level":3,"score":0.32919999957084656},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151406439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186588","display_name":"Time series","level":2,"score":0.3240000009536743},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776361769","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q821775","display_name":"Public health surveillance","level":3,"score":0.30959999561309814},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776480101","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3555250","display_name":"Disease surveillance","level":3,"score":0.30149999260902405},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C74883015","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q290467","display_name":"Autoregressive\u2013moving-average model","level":3,"score":0.288100004196167},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780089965","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39046682","display_name":"Interrupted time series","level":3,"score":0.26750001311302185},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2988170871","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11000047","display_name":"Healthcare system","level":3,"score":0.26249998807907104}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.649","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.649","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.649","pdf_url":"https://academic.oup.com/eurpub/article-pdf/36/Supplement_5/ckag169.649/72462516/ckag169.649.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210220588","display_name":"European Journal of Public Health","issn_l":"1101-1262","issn":["1101-1262","1464-360X"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-b","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-b","doyens","fnege-4","jufo-2","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310311648","host_organization_name":"Oxford University Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310311648","https://openalex.org/P4310311647"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Oxford University Press","University of Oxford"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"European Journal of Public Health","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:13697636","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC13697636/","pdf_url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC13697636/pdf/ckag169.649.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Eur J Public Health","raw_type":"Text"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.649","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.649","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.649","pdf_url":"https://academic.oup.com/eurpub/article-pdf/36/Supplement_5/ckag169.649/72462516/ckag169.649.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210220588","display_name":"European Journal of Public Health","issn_l":"1101-1262","issn":["1101-1262","1464-360X"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-b","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-b","doyens","fnege-4","jufo-2","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310311648","host_organization_name":"Oxford University Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310311648","https://openalex.org/P4310311647"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Oxford University Press","University of Oxford"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"European Journal of Public Health","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.9940000176429749,"display_name":"Good health and well-being","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7223699474.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7223699474.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3217673746","https://openalex.org/W4406923992","https://openalex.org/W4377020212","https://openalex.org/W4286485042","https://openalex.org/W6964272421","https://openalex.org/W3159718387","https://openalex.org/W7135097233","https://openalex.org/W4411312548","https://openalex.org/W7117324232","https://openalex.org/W7117976433"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"Background":[1],"Infectious":[2],"disease":[3,34,52],"incidence":[4,60,121,136,163,232,247,286],"declined":[5],"during":[6,147,238],"the":[7,17,21,47,74,117,127,148,171,192,210,239,253,259,266,277,290,299,312],"COVID-19":[8,24,291],"pandemic;":[9],"however,":[10],"a":[11,158,177,198,216],"resurgence":[12],"has":[13,287],"been":[14],"reported":[15],"in":[16,54,161,228,234,245,256,298],"post-pandemic":[18,149,240],"period":[19,129,150],"following":[20],"relaxation":[22],"of":[23,49,182,203,221,262,280,315],"control":[25],"measures.":[26],"Forecasting":[27],"uses":[28],"surveillance":[29,214,270,303],"data":[30,96,196],"to":[31,45,115,271,276,296,306,311],"predict":[32],"infectious":[33],"burden":[35,48,261],"and":[36,61,81,97,110,274,293,308],"inform":[37],"public":[38],"health":[39],"response.":[40],"This":[41,264],"study":[42],"used":[43,114],"forecasting":[44],"assess":[46],"invasive":[50],"pneumococcal":[51],"(IPD),":[53],"Ontario,":[55,235],"Canada.":[56],"Methods":[57],"Monthly":[58],"IPD":[59,120,135,162,180,201,219,231,246,285],"quarterly":[62],"population":[63],"data,":[64,112,176,215],"between":[65,249],"January":[66],"2011":[67,131],"-":[68],"December":[69,154],"2024,":[70],"were":[71,113],"collected":[72],"through":[73],"integrated":[75],"Public":[76],"Health":[77],"Information":[78],"System":[79],"(iPHIS)":[80],"Statistics":[82],"Canada,":[83],"respectively.":[84],"A":[85],"generalized":[86],"linear":[87],"autoregressive":[88],"moving":[89],"average":[90],"(GLARMA)":[91],"model":[92,103,172,193],"fit":[93,104,173],"with":[94,105,174,252],"pre-pandemic":[95,128,175],"an":[98],"interrupted":[99],"time":[100],"series":[101],"GLARMA":[102],"complete":[106],"(i.e.,":[107],"pre-pandemic,":[108],"pandemic,":[109],"post-pandemic)":[111],"forecast":[116],"mean":[118,178,199,217],"annual":[119,179,200,218],"rates":[122,233,248],"for":[123,189,268],"2025-2026.":[124,190],"Results":[125],"During":[126],"(January":[130],"\u2013":[132,153],"February":[133],"2020),":[134],"remained":[137],"stable":[138],"(IRR":[139,164],"=":[140,165],"1.01,":[141],"95%":[142,167],"CI:":[143,168],"0.99-1.03).":[144],"In":[145],"contrast,":[146],"(May":[151],"2022":[152],"2024),":[155],"there":[156],"was":[157,187,226],"significant":[159],"increase":[160,244,255,297],"1.21,":[166],"1.12-1.31).":[169],"Using":[170],"rate":[181,202,220],"8.41":[183],"cases":[184,205,223],"per":[185,206,224],"100,000":[186,225],"projected":[188,197,243],"However,":[191],"capturing":[194],"all":[195],"16.0":[204],"100,000.":[207],"Based":[208],"on":[209],"most":[211],"recent":[212],"provincial":[213],"11.7":[222],"observed":[227,254],"2025.":[229],"Conclusions":[230],"Canada":[236],"increased":[237,288],"period.":[241],"The":[242],"2025-2026,":[250],"consistent":[251],"2025,":[257],"indicates":[258],"persistent":[260],"IPD.":[263,281,316],"highlights":[265],"need":[267],"enhanced":[269],"better":[272],"understand":[273,307],"respond":[275,310],"changing":[278,313],"dynamics":[279,314],"Key":[282],"messages":[283],"\u2022":[284,301],"after":[289],"pandemic":[292],"may":[294],"continue":[295],"future.":[300],"Enhanced":[302],"is":[304],"essential":[305],"effectively":[309]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-04T10:54:05.112534","created_date":"2026-10-27T00:00:00"}