{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7223664970","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.1881","title":"Hidden transmission and detection delays of dengue and chikungunya in Europe, 2007\u20132024","display_name":"Hidden transmission and detection delays of dengue and chikungunya in Europe, 2007\u20132024","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-10-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7223664970","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.1881"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.1881","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.1881","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.1881","pdf_url":"https://academic.oup.com/eurpub/article-pdf/36/Supplement_5/ckag169.1881/72464730/ckag169.1881.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210220588","display_name":"European Journal of Public Health","issn_l":"1101-1262","issn":["1101-1262","1464-360X"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-b","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-b","doyens","fnege-4","jufo-2","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310311648","host_organization_name":"Oxford University Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310311648","https://openalex.org/P4310311647"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Oxford University Press","University of Oxford"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"European Journal of Public Health","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://academic.oup.com/eurpub/article-pdf/36/Supplement_5/ckag169.1881/72464730/ckag169.1881.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5159659040","display_name":"S Picerno","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I55143463","display_name":"University of Turin","ror":"https://ror.org/048tbm396","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I55143463"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"S Picerno","raw_affiliation_strings":["Dipartimento di Scienze della Sanit\u00e0 Pubblica e Pediatriche, Universit\u00e0 di Torino , Turin,"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Dipartimento di Scienze della Sanit\u00e0 Pubblica e Pediatriche, Universit\u00e0 di Torino , Turin,","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I55143463"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5159734982","display_name":"MG Trullo","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I55143463","display_name":"University of Turin","ror":"https://ror.org/048tbm396","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I55143463"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"MG Trullo","raw_affiliation_strings":["Dipartimento di Scienze della Sanit\u00e0 Pubblica e Pediatriche, Universit\u00e0 di Torino , Turin,"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Dipartimento di Scienze della Sanit\u00e0 Pubblica e Pediatriche, Universit\u00e0 di Torino , Turin,","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I55143463"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5159689456","display_name":"R Ottenga","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I55143463","display_name":"University of Turin","ror":"https://ror.org/048tbm396","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I55143463"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"R Ottenga","raw_affiliation_strings":["Dipartimento di Scienze della Sanit\u00e0 Pubblica e Pediatriche, Universit\u00e0 di Torino , Turin,"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Dipartimento di Scienze della Sanit\u00e0 Pubblica e Pediatriche, Universit\u00e0 di Torino , Turin,","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I55143463"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5159616584","display_name":"S Bressy","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I55143463","display_name":"University of Turin","ror":"https://ror.org/048tbm396","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I55143463"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"S Bressy","raw_affiliation_strings":["Dipartimento di Scienze della Sanit\u00e0 Pubblica e Pediatriche, Universit\u00e0 di Torino , Turin,"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Dipartimento di Scienze della Sanit\u00e0 Pubblica e Pediatriche, Universit\u00e0 di Torino , Turin,","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I55143463"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5159624735","display_name":"L Marega","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I55143463","display_name":"University of Turin","ror":"https://ror.org/048tbm396","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I55143463"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"L Marega","raw_affiliation_strings":["Dipartimento di Scienze della Sanit\u00e0 Pubblica e Pediatriche, Universit\u00e0 di Torino , Turin,"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Dipartimento di Scienze della Sanit\u00e0 Pubblica e Pediatriche, Universit\u00e0 di Torino , Turin,","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I55143463"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5159686530","display_name":"P Marraffa","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I55143463","display_name":"University of Turin","ror":"https://ror.org/048tbm396","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I55143463"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"P Marraffa","raw_affiliation_strings":["Dipartimento di Scienze della Sanit\u00e0 Pubblica e Pediatriche, Universit\u00e0 di Torino , Turin,"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Dipartimento di Scienze della Sanit\u00e0 Pubblica e Pediatriche, Universit\u00e0 di Torino , Turin,","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I55143463"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5159669374","display_name":"F Bert","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I55143463","display_name":"University of Turin","ror":"https://ror.org/048tbm396","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I55143463"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"F Bert","raw_affiliation_strings":["Dipartimento di Scienze della Sanit\u00e0 Pubblica e Pediatriche, Universit\u00e0 di Torino , Turin,"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Dipartimento di Scienze della Sanit\u00e0 Pubblica e Pediatriche, Universit\u00e0 di Torino , Turin,","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I55143463"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5159659040"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I55143463"],"apc_list":{"value":2815,"currency":"EUR","value_usd":3181},"apc_paid":{"value":2815,"currency":"EUR","value_usd":3181},"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.8479922,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"36","issue":"Supplement_5","first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10166","display_name":"Mosquito-borne diseases and control","score":0.9990000128746033,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2739","display_name":"Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10166","display_name":"Mosquito-borne diseases and control","score":0.9990000128746033,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2739","display_name":"Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11819","display_name":"Data-Driven Disease Surveillance","score":0.00019999999494757503,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2713","display_name":"Epidemiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10482","display_name":"Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2604","display_name":"Applied Mathematics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/dengue","display_name":"dengue","score":0.984000027179718},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/chikungunya","display_name":"chikungunya","score":0.9990000128746033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/generation-time","display_name":"generation time","score":0.8759999871253967},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/branching-process-model","display_name":"branching process model","score":0.800000011920929},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/effective-reproduction-number","display_name":"effective reproduction number","score":0.9380000233650208},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/counterfactual-analysis","display_name":"counterfactual analysis","score":0.6899999976158142},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/vector-borne-disease-surveillance","display_name":"vector-borne disease surveillance","score":0.7570000290870667},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/europe","display_name":"Europe","score":0.5720000267028809}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781273456","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q243257","display_name":"Chikungunya","level":3,"score":0.8554999828338623},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C116675565","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3241045","display_name":"Outbreak","level":2,"score":0.8019000291824341},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C533803919","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q30953","display_name":"Dengue fever","level":2,"score":0.6940000057220459},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C761482","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q118093","display_name":"Transmission (telecommunications)","level":2,"score":0.6865000128746033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204264503","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q901464","display_name":"Basic reproduction number","level":3,"score":0.4805999994277954},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.4587000012397766},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.38830000162124634},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C447327","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1639798","display_name":"Index case","level":3,"score":0.33730000257492065},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2910802351","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q243257","display_name":"Chikungunya fever","level":4,"score":0.33320000767707825},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159047783","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7215","display_name":"Virology","level":1,"score":0.3303000032901764},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199335787","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q743364","display_name":"Negative binomial distribution","level":3,"score":0.2996000051498413},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C72563966","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1303415","display_name":"Cohort","level":2,"score":0.2939000129699707},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C116567970","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q864217","display_name":"Biobank","level":2,"score":0.29249998927116394},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776214188","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q408386","display_name":"Inference","level":2,"score":0.2892000079154968},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3008058167","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q84263196","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","level":4,"score":0.2867000102996826},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107130276","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q133805","display_name":"Epidemiology","level":2,"score":0.2703000009059906},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3007834351","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q82069695","display_name":"Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)","level":5,"score":0.2687999904155731},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149923435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37732","display_name":"Demography","level":1,"score":0.2651999890804291},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151956035","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1132755","display_name":"Logistic regression","level":2,"score":0.25850000977516174}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.1881","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.1881","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.1881","pdf_url":"https://academic.oup.com/eurpub/article-pdf/36/Supplement_5/ckag169.1881/72464730/ckag169.1881.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210220588","display_name":"European Journal of Public Health","issn_l":"1101-1262","issn":["1101-1262","1464-360X"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-b","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-b","doyens","fnege-4","jufo-2","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310311648","host_organization_name":"Oxford University Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310311648","https://openalex.org/P4310311647"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Oxford University Press","University of Oxford"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"European Journal of Public Health","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:13698341","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC13698341/","pdf_url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC13698341/pdf/ckag169.1881.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Eur J Public Health","raw_type":"Text"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.1881","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.1881","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.1881","pdf_url":"https://academic.oup.com/eurpub/article-pdf/36/Supplement_5/ckag169.1881/72464730/ckag169.1881.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210220588","display_name":"European Journal of Public Health","issn_l":"1101-1262","issn":["1101-1262","1464-360X"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-b","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-b","doyens","fnege-4","jufo-2","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310311648","host_organization_name":"Oxford University Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310311648","https://openalex.org/P4310311647"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Oxford University Press","University of Oxford"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"European Journal of Public Health","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","display_name":"Good health and well-being","score":0.9922999739646912}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7223664970.pdf"},"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4386738531","https://openalex.org/W4412090402","https://openalex.org/W4410998068","https://openalex.org/W3022697976","https://openalex.org/W4214873769","https://openalex.org/W7167899658","https://openalex.org/W7168168525","https://openalex.org/W3035443205","https://openalex.org/W2102728752","https://openalex.org/W2730204482"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"Background":[1],"Autochthonous":[2],"outbreaks":[3,182],"of":[4,33,46,209,218,282,304,310],"dengue":[5,297],"(DENV)":[6],"and":[7,28,49,97,107,121,201,212,251,264,285,314],"chikungunya":[8],"(CHIKV)":[9],"are":[10],"occurring":[11,92,221],"with":[12,85,101,160,206],"increasing":[13],"frequency":[14],"in":[15,77,132,230,270],"Europe.":[16,257,318],"This":[17],"study":[18],"aimed":[19],"to":[20,25,29,57,145],"quantify":[21],"undetected":[22,95],"transmission":[23,52,219,233,271],"prior":[24],"outbreak":[26,292],"recognition":[27,223],"estimate":[30],"the":[31,94,116,133,243,279,308],"proportion":[32],"cases":[34,91],"potentially":[35],"preventable":[36,283],"under":[37,98],"earlier":[38],"detection":[39,102,119,197,267,293],"scenarios.":[40],"Methods":[41],"We":[42],"compiled":[43],"a":[44,225],"dataset":[45],"European":[47,262],"DENV":[48,263],"CHIKV":[50,265],"local":[51],"events":[53],"(LTEs)":[54],"from":[55,142],"2007":[56],"2024.":[58],"Detection":[59],"delay":[60,120,141,155,175,229,268],"was":[61,149,156,204],"rescaled":[62],"using":[63],"virus-specific":[64],"generation":[65,298],"times":[66],"(18":[67],"days":[68,72,151,203,276],"for":[69,73,245],"DENV,":[70],"12":[71],"CHIKV),":[74],"expressing":[75],"it":[76],"generation-time":[78,185],"equivalents.":[79],"A":[80,110],"branching":[81],"process":[82],"model,":[83],"parameterised":[84],"outbreak-specific":[86],"effective":[87],"reproduction":[88],"numbers,":[89],"estimated":[90],"during":[93],"phase":[96],"counterfactual":[99],"scenarios":[100],"advanced":[103],"by":[104,198,294],"7,":[105,199],"14,":[106,200],"21":[108,202],"days.":[109],"negative":[111],"binomial":[112],"regression":[113],"model":[114],"explored":[115],"association":[117],"between":[118],"LTE":[122,161],"size.":[123],"Results":[124],"Thirty":[125],"LTEs":[126,192],"were":[127,130],"identified;":[128],"23":[129],"included":[131],"modelling":[134],"(832":[135],"confirmed":[136],"autochthonous":[137],"cases).":[138],"The":[139,216],"median":[140],"symptom":[143],"onset":[144],"index":[146],"case":[147,207],"diagnosis":[148],"13":[150],"(range:":[152],"4\u201364).":[153],"Calendar-day":[154],"not":[157,274],"significantly":[158],"associated":[159,205],"size":[162],"(IRR":[163],"1.002;":[164],"95%":[165],"CI":[166],"0.966\u20131.048;":[167],"p":[168],"=":[169],"0.887).":[170],"In":[171,261],"contrast,":[172],"biologically":[173,231],"scaled":[174],"revealed":[176],"substantial":[177],"hidden":[178,238],"transmission:":[179],"several":[180],"Italian":[181],"accumulated":[183],"4\u20136":[184],"equivalents":[186],"before":[187,222],"detection,":[188],"whereas":[189],"most":[190],"French":[191],"remained":[193],"below":[194],"2.":[195],"Advancing":[196,291],"reductions":[208],"28.9%,":[210],"49.3%,":[211],"62.8%,":[213],"respectively.":[214],"Conclusions":[215],"number":[217],"generations":[220,272],"is":[224,278],"critical":[226],"factor.":[227],"Expressing":[228],"meaningful":[232],"units":[234],"more":[235],"effectively":[236],"captures":[237],"transmission.":[239],"These":[240],"findings":[241],"underscore":[242],"need":[244],"enhanced":[246],"clinical":[247,312],"suspicion,":[248],"rapid":[249,315],"diagnostics,":[250],"strengthened":[252],"seasonal":[253],"surveillance":[254,288],"systems":[255],"across":[256,317],"Key":[258],"messages":[259],"\u2022":[260,290],"outbreaks,":[266],"expressed":[269],"\u2014":[273,277],"calendar":[275],"true":[280],"predictor":[281],"burden":[284],"should":[286],"guide":[287],"systems.":[289],"just":[295],"one":[296],"time":[299],"could":[300],"prevent":[301],"nearly":[302],"half":[303],"all":[305],"cases,":[306],"highlighting":[307],"urgency":[309],"stronger":[311],"suspicion":[313],"diagnostics":[316]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-10-31T12:09:11.096373","created_date":"2026-10-27T00:00:00"}