{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7223264907","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2610.31038","title":"Multichoice Modeling: Exploring Decision Configuration Space under Uncertainty","display_name":"Multichoice Modeling: Exploring Decision Configuration Space under Uncertainty","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-10-22","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7223264907","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2610.31038"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2610.31038","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.31038","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.31038","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["arxiv","datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.31038","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5047510717","display_name":"Mariia Kozlova","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6952-7682","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6952-7682"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I63548447","display_name":"Lappeenranta-Lahti University of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/0208vgz68","country_code":"FI","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I63548447"]}],"countries":["FI"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Kozlova, Mariia","raw_affiliation_strings":["LUT University , LUT Business School , Lappeenranta , Finland"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"LUT University , LUT Business School , Lappeenranta , Finland","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I63548447"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5159330972","display_name":"Roman Stepanova","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I63548447","display_name":"Lappeenranta-Lahti University of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/0208vgz68","country_code":"FI","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I63548447"]}],"countries":["FI"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Stepanov, Roman","raw_affiliation_strings":["LUT University , LUT Business School , Lappeenranta , Finland"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"LUT University , LUT Business School , Lappeenranta , Finland","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I63548447"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5159324776","display_name":"Alexander Walzer","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2972652528","display_name":"FHNW University of Applied Sciences and Arts Northwestern Switzerland","ror":"https://ror.org/04mq2g308","country_code":"CH","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2972652528"]}],"countries":["CH"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Walzer, Alexander","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Applied Sciences and Arts Northwestern Switzerland FHNW , Switzerland"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Applied Sciences and Arts Northwestern Switzerland FHNW , Switzerland","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2972652528"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5040077936","display_name":"Andrea Saltelli","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4222-6975","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4222-6975"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I170486558","display_name":"Universitat Pompeu Fabra","ror":"https://ror.org/04n0g0b29","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I170486558"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4387152686","display_name":"UPF Barcelona School of Management","ror":"https://ror.org/04m3cqq68","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I170486558","https://openalex.org/I4387152686"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Saltelli, Andrea","raw_affiliation_strings":["UPF Barcelona School of Management , Barcelona , Spain"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"UPF Barcelona School of Management , Barcelona , Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I170486558","https://openalex.org/I4387152686"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":3,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11976","display_name":"Capital Investment and Risk Analysis","score":0.3359000086784363,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11976","display_name":"Capital Investment and Risk Analysis","score":0.3359000086784363,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11195","display_name":"Simulation Techniques and Applications","score":0.19269999861717224,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11810","display_name":"Complex Systems and Decision Making","score":0.1273999959230423,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/uncertainty-analysis","display_name":"uncertainty analysis","score":0.7179999947547913},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/rugged-landscapes","display_name":"rugged landscapes","score":0.7680000066757202},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/variance-based-sensitivity-analysis","display_name":"variance-based sensitivity analysis","score":0.8450000286102295},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/decision-architecture","display_name":"decision architecture","score":0.5109999775886536},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/complementarity","display_name":"complementarity","score":0.6140000224113464},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/risk-profile","display_name":"risk profile","score":0.9139999747276306}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185874996","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q269699","display_name":"Interdependence","level":2,"score":0.5911999940872192},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C186116695","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5249226","display_name":"Decision analysis","level":2,"score":0.5902000069618225},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778572836","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q380933","display_name":"Space (punctuation)","level":2,"score":0.5644000172615051},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5482000112533569},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C20837028","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q623966","display_name":"Influence diagram","level":3,"score":0.5047000050544739},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C98045186","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q205663","display_name":"Process (computing)","level":2,"score":0.48510000109672546},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107327155","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q330268","display_name":"Decision support system","level":2,"score":0.42730000615119934},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C156201811","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5418360","display_name":"Evidential reasoning approach","level":4,"score":0.42289999127388},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C28901747","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q177571","display_name":"Decision theory","level":2,"score":0.41929998993873596},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C115988155","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3262192","display_name":"Decision problem","level":2,"score":0.4115999937057495},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2984634286","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1331926","display_name":"Decision process","level":2,"score":0.3939000070095062},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C150325174","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4335500","display_name":"Optimal decision","level":3,"score":0.37209999561309814},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C59594135","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5249242","display_name":"Decision model","level":2,"score":0.36489999294281006},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21200559","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7451068","display_name":"Sensitivity (control systems)","level":2,"score":0.36320000886917114},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C168167062","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1117970","display_name":"Component (thermodynamics)","level":2,"score":0.34940001368522644},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C64431516","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5249235","display_name":"Decision field theory","level":5,"score":0.34619998931884766},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776291640","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2912517","display_name":"Value (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.3312000036239624},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C135115379","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2750514","display_name":"Decision engineering","level":4,"score":0.32839998602867126},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112930515","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4389547","display_name":"Risk analysis (engineering)","level":1,"score":0.3271999955177307},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C84839998","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5249245","display_name":"Decision rule","level":2,"score":0.3181000053882599},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C84525736","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q831366","display_name":"Decision tree","level":2,"score":0.29249998927116394},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149441793","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q200726","display_name":"Probability distribution","level":2,"score":0.2881999909877777},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.2867000102996826},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C110121322","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q865811","display_name":"Distribution (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.2847000062465668},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C123657996","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12271","display_name":"Architecture","level":2,"score":0.2827000021934509},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.2815999984741211},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177803969","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q29205","display_name":"Uncertainty analysis","level":2,"score":0.27730000019073486},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43555835","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2300258","display_name":"Conditional probability distribution","level":2,"score":0.266400009393692},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C32230216","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7882499","display_name":"Uncertainty quantification","level":2,"score":0.25699999928474426},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177264268","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1514741","display_name":"Set (abstract data type)","level":2,"score":0.25099998712539673},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C539667460","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2414942","display_name":"Management science","level":1,"score":0.25099998712539673}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2610.31038","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.31038","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.31038","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2610.31038","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2610.31038","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2610.31038","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2610.31038","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.31038","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.31038","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7223264907.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7223264907.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":5,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W600148761","https://openalex.org/W2942432719","https://openalex.org/W4247165901","https://openalex.org/W4402173648","https://openalex.org/W4408595502"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W193642185","https://openalex.org/W4200318544","https://openalex.org/W4399364550","https://openalex.org/W2002771148","https://openalex.org/W2107110886","https://openalex.org/W1979474742","https://openalex.org/W1524067009","https://openalex.org/W2071982678","https://openalex.org/W2252762934","https://openalex.org/W2994189183"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Decision":[0],"support":[1],"has":[2],"become":[3],"sophisticated":[4],"at":[5,12,176],"exploring":[6],"uncertainty,":[7],"but":[8],"much":[9],"less":[10],"so":[11],"representing":[13],"the":[14,17,23,38,67,126,149,154,177],"architecture":[15],"of":[16,40,69],"decision":[18,24,56,97,155],"itself.":[19],"As":[20],"a":[21,51,102,132],"result,":[22],"space":[25,157],"is":[26,31,109],"often":[27],"narrowed":[28],"before":[29],"uncertainty":[30,99],"analyzed,":[32],"leaving":[33],"interactions":[34],"among":[35],"choices":[36,82],"and":[37,60,98,115,138,168],"effects":[39],"alternatives":[41,175],"they":[42],"imply":[43],"largely":[44],"invisible.":[45],"This":[46],"paper":[47],"introduces":[48],"multichoice":[49,147],"modeling,":[50,148],"framework":[52,94,127],"for":[53,111,119],"making":[54],"large":[55],"configuration":[57,156],"spaces":[58,100],"explicit":[59],"computationally":[61],"explorable":[62],"under":[63],"uncertainty.":[64],"Drawing":[65],"on":[66],"logic":[68],"rugged":[70],"landscapes,":[71,79],"we":[72],"conceptualize":[73],"such":[74],"problems":[75],"as":[76,174],"contingent":[77],"performance":[78,122],"where":[80],"interdependent":[81],"generate":[83],"configuration-specific":[84,121],"outcomes":[85],"whose":[86],"value":[87],"changes":[88],"across":[89],"uncertain":[90],"futures.":[91],"The":[92],"computational":[93],"combines":[95],"multidimensional":[96],"in":[101],"single":[103],"simulation.":[104],"Further,":[105],"variance-based":[106],"sensitivity":[107],"analysis":[108,118,145],"used":[110],"identifying":[112],"influential":[113],"choices,":[114],"conditional":[116],"distribution":[117],"comparing":[120],"profiles.":[123],"We":[124],"demonstrate":[125],"through":[128],"three":[129],"case":[130],"studies:":[131],"manufacturing":[133],"process":[134],"upgrade,":[135],"M&A":[136],"strategy,":[137],"mortgage":[139],"design.":[140],"By":[141],"contrasting":[142],"conventional":[143],"uncertainty-only":[144],"with":[146,164],"cases":[150],"show":[151],"how":[152],"opening":[153],"can":[158],"reveal":[159],"unexpected":[160],"complementarities,":[161],"near-best":[162],"configurations":[163],"different":[165],"risk":[166],"profiles,":[167],"strategies":[169],"that":[170],"were":[171],"not":[172],"apparent":[173],"outset.":[178]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2026-10-24T00:00:00"}
