{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7223197910","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2610.29766","title":"Bayesian Comparison of Covid Origins Hypotheses","display_name":"Bayesian Comparison of Covid Origins Hypotheses","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-10-21","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7223197910","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2610.29766"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2610.29766","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.29766","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.29766","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["arxiv","datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.29766","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5073667231","display_name":"Michael B. Weissman","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0081-4429","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0081-4429"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I157725225","display_name":"University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign","ror":"https://ror.org/047426m28","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I157725225"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Weissman, Michael B.","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Physics , University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign , 1110 W. Green St. , Urbana , IL 61801 , USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Physics , University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign , 1110 W. Green St. , Urbana , IL 61801 , USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I157725225"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5073667231"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I157725225"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10118","display_name":"SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research","score":0.9589999914169312,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2725","display_name":"Infectious Diseases"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10118","display_name":"SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research","score":0.9589999914169312,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2725","display_name":"Infectious Diseases"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12492","display_name":"Zoonotic diseases and public health","score":0.009200000204145908,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2739","display_name":"Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.004900000058114529,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/covid-19-origin","display_name":"COVID-19 origin","score":0.9129999876022339},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/zoonotic-transmission","display_name":"zoonotic transmission","score":0.7860000133514404},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/laboratory-leak-hypothesis","display_name":"laboratory leak hypothesis","score":0.699999988079071},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/prior-odds","display_name":"prior odds","score":0.7960000038146973},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/viral-evolution","display_name":"viral evolution","score":0.4950000047683716}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C143095724","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q515895","display_name":"Odds","level":3,"score":0.8019999861717224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.6747999787330627},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3008058167","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q84263196","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","level":4,"score":0.5774999856948853},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3007834351","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q82069695","display_name":"Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)","level":5,"score":0.4634000062942505},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3006700255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q81068910","display_name":"2019-20 coronavirus outbreak","level":3,"score":0.4332999885082245},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C207201462","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q182505","display_name":"Bayes' theorem","level":3,"score":0.4016999900341034},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C156957248","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1862216","display_name":"Odds ratio","level":2,"score":0.3874000012874603},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.384799987077713},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.35569998621940613},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C160234255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812535","display_name":"Bayesian inference","level":3,"score":0.35530000925064087},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.3203999996185303},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C87007009","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q210832","display_name":"Statistical hypothesis testing","level":2,"score":0.31610000133514404},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.3025999963283539},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C78458016","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q840400","display_name":"Evolutionary biology","level":1,"score":0.29919999837875366},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111350023","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1191869","display_name":"Markov chain Monte Carlo","level":3,"score":0.27880001068115234},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C142291917","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4165283","display_name":"Bayes factor","level":4,"score":0.2757999897003174},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.2694999873638153},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2986587452","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q938438","display_name":"Statistical analysis","level":2,"score":0.2655999958515167},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.2522999942302704},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C101112237","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4874481","display_name":"Bayesian statistics","level":4,"score":0.25119999051094055},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C96250715","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q965330","display_name":"Estimation","level":2,"score":0.25060001015663147}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2610.29766","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.29766","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.29766","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2610.29766","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2610.29766","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2610.29766","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2610.29766","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.29766","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.29766","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7223197910.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7223197910.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":73,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1965531501","https://openalex.org/W1970893992","https://openalex.org/W1975019133","https://openalex.org/W1990059132","https://openalex.org/W2004011865","https://openalex.org/W2022183964","https://openalex.org/W2026445898","https://openalex.org/W2037987211","https://openalex.org/W2073096422","https://openalex.org/W2095127739","https://openalex.org/W2106797018","https://openalex.org/W2140760519","https://openalex.org/W2195009776","https://openalex.org/W2470229791","https://openalex.org/W2775086803","https://openalex.org/W2888974689","https://openalex.org/W2905691968","https://openalex.org/W2916497857","https://openalex.org/W2944825308","https://openalex.org/W3011127849","https://openalex.org/W3030602524","https://openalex.org/W3048820878","https://openalex.org/W3086411451","https://openalex.org/W3087100580","https://openalex.org/W3103466171","https://openalex.org/W3132154952","https://openalex.org/W3134237777","https://openalex.org/W3137008901","https://openalex.org/W3149137063","https://openalex.org/W3159140204","https://openalex.org/W3176445226","https://openalex.org/W3182428057","https://openalex.org/W3194240923","https://openalex.org/W3194482287","https://openalex.org/W3211030057","https://openalex.org/W3213630955","https://openalex.org/W4205187711","https://openalex.org/W4220970176","https://openalex.org/W4239580024","https://openalex.org/W4280653107","https://openalex.org/W4281848861","https://openalex.org/W4284700494","https://openalex.org/W4285586770","https://openalex.org/W4286268961","https://openalex.org/W4288034315","https://openalex.org/W4288035028","https://openalex.org/W4295747815","https://openalex.org/W4306950842","https://openalex.org/W4312179392","https://openalex.org/W4313562503","https://openalex.org/W4315491485","https://openalex.org/W4321019198","https://openalex.org/W4321188800","https://openalex.org/W4362609000","https://openalex.org/W4386223763","https://openalex.org/W4387425250","https://openalex.org/W4390445303","https://openalex.org/W4392883367","https://openalex.org/W4401715145","https://openalex.org/W4401826733","https://openalex.org/W4402221296","https://openalex.org/W4403097610","https://openalex.org/W4405459488","https://openalex.org/W4407898655","https://openalex.org/W4411134232","https://openalex.org/W4411180725","https://openalex.org/W4417279903","https://openalex.org/W4417321115","https://openalex.org/W7102397263","https://openalex.org/W7154855715","https://openalex.org/W7196938898","https://openalex.org/W7203663383","https://openalex.org/W7216006735"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4407091955","https://openalex.org/W6968437995","https://openalex.org/W7171982731","https://openalex.org/W3209422218","https://openalex.org/W6912104313","https://openalex.org/W6912453639","https://openalex.org/W3159860363","https://openalex.org/W7143525317","https://openalex.org/W6903783590","https://openalex.org/W3190809500"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Applying":[0],"standard":[1],"Bayesian":[2],"methods":[3],"to":[4],"the":[5,12,19,41,56,60,63,66,72,83],"most":[6],"reliably":[7],"known":[8,46,69],"unclassified":[9],"facts":[10],"about":[11],"Covid":[13],"epidemic":[14],"allows":[15],"crude":[16],"estimation":[17],"of":[18,40,58,62,68,76,82,99],"odds":[20,88,93],"for":[21],"research-related":[22,42],"vs.":[23],"purely":[24],"zoonotic":[25,31],"origins.":[26],"Here":[27],"a":[28,36],"broadly":[29],"inclusive":[30],"hypothesis":[32,43],"is":[33],"compared":[34],"with":[35],"rather":[37],"specific":[38,80],"subset":[39],"defined":[44],"by":[45],"prior":[47,70,102],"work":[48],"and":[49,78],"grant":[50],"proposals.":[51],"The":[52,86,92],"important":[53],"observations":[54],"are":[55],"type":[57],"virus,":[59],"city":[61],"first":[64],"outbreak,":[65],"lack":[67],"hosts,":[71],"anomalous":[73],"early":[74],"pattern":[75],"evolution,":[77],"two":[79],"features":[81],"viral":[84],"sequence.":[85],"resulting":[87],"strongly":[89],"favor":[90],"research.":[91],"remain":[94],"fairly":[95],"strong":[96],"under":[97],"inclusion":[98],"uncertainties":[100],"in":[101],"odds.":[103]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2026-10-23T00:00:00"}
