{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7223146331","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/land15102016","title":"Spatial Patterns and Nonlinear Associations Between Agricultural Comprehensive Risk and Grain Production Capacity in China: Evidence from Explainable Machine Learning","display_name":"Spatial Patterns and Nonlinear Associations Between Agricultural Comprehensive Risk and Grain Production Capacity in China: Evidence from Explainable Machine Learning","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-10-21","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7223146331","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/land15102016"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/land15102016","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/land15102016","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/land15102016","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2738397068","display_name":"Land","issn_l":"2073-445X","issn":["2073-445X"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Land","raw_type":"journal-article"},"parent_works":[],"lineage":["https://openalex.org/W7223146331"],"child_works_count":0,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/land15102016","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5104056825","display_name":"Dapeng Zhou","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0000-0567-9436","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0000-0567-9436"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210087107","display_name":"Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences","ror":"https://ror.org/001f9e125","country_code":"CN","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210087107"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Dapeng Zhou","raw_affiliation_strings":["Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Nanjing 210014, China","Jiangsu Rural Revitalization Research Institute, Nanjing 210014, China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0000-0567-9436","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Nanjing 210014, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210087107"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Jiangsu Rural Revitalization Research Institute, Nanjing 210014, China","institution_ids":[]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5013143771","display_name":"Kai Dong","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4355-2633","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4355-2633"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I74485261","display_name":"Shandong Agricultural University","ror":"https://ror.org/02ke8fw32","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I74485261"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Kai Dong","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Marxism, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai\u2019an 271018, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Marxism, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai\u2019an 271018, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I74485261"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5028673588","display_name":"Xinyu Ma","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2235-9298","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2235-9298"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","display_name":"Cornell University","ror":"https://ror.org/05bnh6r87","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Xinyu Ma","raw_affiliation_strings":["Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2235-9298","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5115050351","display_name":"Honghua Huan","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210087107","display_name":"Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences","ror":"https://ror.org/001f9e125","country_code":"CN","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210087107"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Honghua Huan","raw_affiliation_strings":["Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Nanjing 210014, China","Jiangsu Rural Revitalization Research Institute, Nanjing 210014, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Nanjing 210014, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210087107"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Jiangsu Rural Revitalization Research Institute, Nanjing 210014, China","institution_ids":[]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5115050351"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210087107"],"apc_list":{"value":2600,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":3137},"apc_paid":{"value":2600,"currency":"CHF","value_usd":3137},"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.0,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"15","issue":"10","first_page":"2016","last_page":"2016"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10439","display_name":"Climate change impacts on agriculture","score":0.9761000275611877,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1102","display_name":"Agronomy and Crop Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/11","display_name":"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/1","display_name":"Life Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10439","display_name":"Climate change impacts on agriculture","score":0.9761000275611877,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1102","display_name":"Agronomy and Crop Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/11","display_name":"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/1","display_name":"Life Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11886","display_name":"Agricultural risk and resilience","score":0.022600000724196434,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11805","display_name":"Agricultural economics and policies","score":0.00019999999494757503,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/grain-production-capacity","display_name":"grain production capacity","score":0.9990000128746033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/food-security","display_name":"food security","score":0.7590000033378601},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/spatial-mismatch","display_name":"spatial mismatch","score":0.5299999713897705},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climate-exposure","display_name":"climate exposure","score":0.574999988079071},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/drought","display_name":"drought","score":0.6470000147819519},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/floods","display_name":"floods","score":0.8730000257492065},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/regional-heterogeneity","display_name":"regional heterogeneity","score":0.6899999976158142},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/prefecture-level-cities","display_name":"prefecture-level cities","score":0.7910000085830688},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/china","display_name":"China","score":0.5249999761581421}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C128383755","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3816336","display_name":"Agricultural productivity","level":3,"score":0.6230999827384949},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778348673","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q739302","display_name":"Production (economics)","level":2,"score":0.6107000112533569},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C118518473","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11451","display_name":"Agriculture","level":2,"score":0.6067000031471252},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C147077947","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1515895","display_name":"Socioeconomic status","level":3,"score":0.48730000853538513},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C158709400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3578586","display_name":"Spatial ecology","level":2,"score":0.4729999899864197},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204983608","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2111958","display_name":"Productivity","level":2,"score":0.4489000141620636},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.4230000078678131},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39389867","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q380767","display_name":"Corporate governance","level":2,"score":0.37380000948905945},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C175605778","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3299701","display_name":"Natural resource economics","level":1,"score":0.37229999899864197},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777382242","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6017816","display_name":"Index (typography)","level":2,"score":0.3698999881744385},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C206345919","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q20380951","display_name":"Resource (disambiguation)","level":2,"score":0.3562000095844269},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.35040000081062317},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107826830","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q929380","display_name":"Environmental resource management","level":1,"score":0.34599998593330383},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C191935318","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q148","display_name":"China","level":2,"score":0.34450000524520874},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C173727882","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5153620","display_name":"Common spatial pattern","level":2,"score":0.34279999136924744},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C48824518","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q396340","display_name":"Agricultural economics","level":1,"score":0.3310999870300293},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132651083","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Climate change","level":2,"score":0.3131999969482422},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.31310001015663147},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777006462","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3738275","display_name":"Adaptive capacity","level":3,"score":0.30979999899864197},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C94747663","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7574086","display_name":"Spatial variability","level":2,"score":0.2992999851703644},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C88199923","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q627371","display_name":"Food processing","level":2,"score":0.28999999165534973},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.2867000102996826},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C198531522","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q485146","display_name":"Sample (material)","level":2,"score":0.2732999920845032},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C88463610","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194118","display_name":"Agricultural engineering","level":1,"score":0.27079999446868896},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C12174686","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1058438","display_name":"Risk assessment","level":2,"score":0.26759999990463257},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C158622935","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q660848","display_name":"Nonlinear system","level":2,"score":0.26429998874664307},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159620131","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1938983","display_name":"Spatial analysis","level":2,"score":0.26350000500679016},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.2612999975681305},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.26080000400543213},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C66204764","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q219416","display_name":"Sustainability","level":2,"score":0.2565000057220459},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C58941895","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q295865","display_name":"Ecosystem services","level":3,"score":0.2554999887943268},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780210451","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3433166","display_name":"Climate risk","level":3,"score":0.25040000677108765}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.3390/land15102016","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/land15102016","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/land15102016","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2738397068","display_name":"Land","issn_l":"2073-445X","issn":["2073-445X"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Land","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:031f51b6276a471da176aea8e66cabb3","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/031f51b6276a471da176aea8e66cabb3","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Land, Vol 15, Iss 10, p 2016 (2026)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.3390/land15102016","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3390/land15102016","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3390/land15102016","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2738397068","display_name":"Land","issn_l":"2073-445X","issn":["2073-445X"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310310987","host_organization_name":"Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310310987"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Land","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/2","score":0.9208999872207642,"display_name":"Zero hunger"},{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","score":0.5351999998092651,"display_name":"Climate action"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":76,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1678356000","https://openalex.org/W1972591816","https://openalex.org/W1977827751","https://openalex.org/W1984127772","https://openalex.org/W1994668345","https://openalex.org/W1995875735","https://openalex.org/W2010751289","https://openalex.org/W2011195592","https://openalex.org/W2036538049","https://openalex.org/W2042122216","https://openalex.org/W2051159954","https://openalex.org/W2064675550","https://openalex.org/W2077766806","https://openalex.org/W2080902188","https://openalex.org/W2081757228","https://openalex.org/W2083278912","https://openalex.org/W2086710305","https://openalex.org/W2094085923","https://openalex.org/W2109438227","https://openalex.org/W2110559753","https://openalex.org/W2112796928","https://openalex.org/W2113410727","https://openalex.org/W2117162642","https://openalex.org/W2122266551","https://openalex.org/W2126902408","https://openalex.org/W2131774270","https://openalex.org/W2153243519","https://openalex.org/W2158535548","https://openalex.org/W2161994757","https://openalex.org/W2168872380","https://openalex.org/W2168872978","https://openalex.org/W2208007485","https://openalex.org/W2227280755","https://openalex.org/W2295598076","https://openalex.org/W2330520741","https://openalex.org/W2506768821","https://openalex.org/W2560136348","https://openalex.org/W2622898554","https://openalex.org/W2725897987","https://openalex.org/W2747319455","https://openalex.org/W2778884719","https://openalex.org/W2779104763","https://openalex.org/W2783489174","https://openalex.org/W2790542267","https://openalex.org/W2800299140","https://openalex.org/W2806176719","https://openalex.org/W2808279205","https://openalex.org/W2885670686","https://openalex.org/W2911964244","https://openalex.org/W2972629016","https://openalex.org/W2973091555","https://openalex.org/W2993183666","https://openalex.org/W2999615587","https://openalex.org/W3045358112","https://openalex.org/W3085784695","https://openalex.org/W4224441872","https://openalex.org/W4233283252","https://openalex.org/W4239510810","https://openalex.org/W4296783080","https://openalex.org/W4313400214","https://openalex.org/W4389966084","https://openalex.org/W4390699418","https://openalex.org/W4392544943","https://openalex.org/W4394882862","https://openalex.org/W4399140874","https://openalex.org/W4400763428","https://openalex.org/W4401175547","https://openalex.org/W4402226357","https://openalex.org/W4403814019","https://openalex.org/W4405652917","https://openalex.org/W4406180272","https://openalex.org/W4407363766","https://openalex.org/W4408751008","https://openalex.org/W4414561458","https://openalex.org/W4414988113","https://openalex.org/W7133186244"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7170080089","https://openalex.org/W7169887145","https://openalex.org/W7163388430","https://openalex.org/W7223254330","https://openalex.org/W3001850306","https://openalex.org/W7207553105","https://openalex.org/W3109917473","https://openalex.org/W2926440678","https://openalex.org/W2199942819"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Climate":[0],"change,":[1],"more":[2,167],"frequent":[3],"extreme":[4],"events,":[5],"and":[6,9,37,44,73,76,82,100,108,113,122,131,152,158,172,175,183,206,209],"tightening":[7],"resource":[8],"environmental":[10],"constraints":[11],"are":[12],"increasing":[13],"uncertainty":[14],"in":[15,119],"grain":[16,85,191],"production,":[17],"making":[18],"agricultural":[19,197],"risk":[20,112,198,207],"assessment":[21],"essential":[22],"for":[23,54,196],"food":[24],"security.":[25],"Yet":[26],"high":[27],"realized":[28,190],"production":[29,86,192],"capacity":[30,136,193,205],"does":[31],"not":[32],"necessarily":[33],"imply":[34],"low":[35,135],"risk,":[36],"output-based":[38],"assessments":[39],"may":[40],"obscure":[41],"climatic,":[42],"ecological,":[43,171],"socioeconomic":[45,74],"vulnerabilities.":[46],"Using":[47],"a":[48],"panel":[49],"of":[50,124,129,144],"4140":[51],"city-year":[52],"observations":[53],"180":[55],"Chinese":[56],"prefecture-level":[57],"cities":[58],"(2000\u20132022),":[59],"we":[60],"construct":[61],"an":[62],"Agricultural":[63],"Comprehensive":[64],"Risk":[65],"Index":[66],"(ACRI)":[67],"spanning":[68],"climate\u2013meteorological":[69],"exposure,":[70],"ecological\u2013environmental":[71],"conditions,":[72],"vulnerability,":[75],"examine":[77],"its":[78],"joint":[79],"spatial":[80,106],"patterns":[81],"evolution":[83],"with":[84,137,148,178],"capacity.":[87,114],"Explainable":[88],"machine":[89],"learning":[90],"(XGBoost":[91],"+":[92],"SHAP)":[93],"identifies":[94],"key":[95],"predictors,":[96],"nonlinear":[97,150],"effects,":[98],"interactions,":[99],"regional":[101],"heterogeneity.":[102],"We":[103],"find":[104],"pronounced":[105],"mismatches":[107],"asynchronous":[109],"dynamics":[110],"between":[111,181],"High-capacity,":[115],"medium-to-high-risk":[116],"areas":[117],"concentrate":[118],"northeast,":[120],"north,":[121],"parts":[123,128],"central/eastern":[125],"China,":[126],"while":[127],"southwest":[130],"western":[132],"China":[133],"show":[134,188],"medium-to-high":[138],"risk.":[139],"Ecological\u2013environmental":[140],"variables":[141],"contribute":[142],"77.6%":[143],"global":[145],"SHAP":[146],"importance,":[147],"strongly":[149],"associations":[151],"non-additive":[153],"interactions":[154],"involving":[155],"thermal,":[156,170],"vegetation,":[157],"productivity":[159],"factors.":[160],"Over":[161],"the":[162],"sample":[163],"period,":[164],"predictions":[165],"grow":[166],"dependent":[168],"on":[169],"selected":[173],"drought-":[174],"flood-related":[176],"features,":[177],"clear":[179],"differences":[180],"northern":[182],"southern":[184],"China.":[185],"These":[186],"findings":[187],"that":[189],"cannot":[194],"substitute":[195],"assessment.":[199],"Food-security":[200],"governance":[201],"should":[202],"therefore":[203],"evaluate":[204],"jointly":[208],"target":[210],"region-specific":[211],"constraints.":[212]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-14T11:04:58.165337","created_date":"2026-10-22T00:00:00"}
