{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7223138243","doi":"https://doi.org/10.15294/ujm.v14i2.27848","title":"Forecasting the Number of Tourist Visits to Semarang City Using the Holt-Winters Multiplicative and Fourier Series Analysis (FSA) Methods","display_name":"Forecasting the Number of Tourist Visits to Semarang City Using the Holt-Winters Multiplicative and Fourier Series Analysis (FSA) Methods","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-10-21","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7223138243","doi":"https://doi.org/10.15294/ujm.v14i2.27848"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.15294/ujm.v14i2.27848","doi":"https://doi.org/10.15294/ujm.v14i2.27848","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.15294/ujm.v14i2.27848","pdf_url":"https://journal.unnes.ac.id/journals/ujm/article/download/27848/11862","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4387281262","display_name":"Unnes Journal of Mathematics","issn_l":"2252-6943","issn":["2252-6943","2460-5859"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["doaj"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315212","host_organization_name":"Jurusan Ilmu Komputer Universitas Negeri Semarang","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315212"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Jurusan Ilmu Komputer Universitas Negeri Semarang"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Unnes Journal of Mathematics","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"diamond","oa_url":"https://journal.unnes.ac.id/journals/ujm/article/download/27848/11862","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5125426198","display_name":"Zuyun Khoiriyah","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Zuyun Khoiriyah","raw_affiliation_strings":["Building D7, 1st Floor, Sekaran Campus"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Building D7, 1st Floor, Sekaran Campus","institution_ids":[]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5037888602","display_name":"Arief Agoestanto","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8070-200X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8070-200X"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Arief Agoestanto","raw_affiliation_strings":["Building D7, 1st Floor, Sekaran Campus"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Building D7, 1st Floor, Sekaran Campus","institution_ids":[]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.0,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"14","issue":"2","first_page":"39","last_page":"48"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9980000257492065,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9980000257492065,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12205","display_name":"Time Series Analysis and Forecasting","score":0.0005000000237487257,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1711","display_name":"Signal Processing"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12368","display_name":"Grey System Theory Applications","score":0.0003000000142492354,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/fourier-series-analysis","display_name":"Fourier series analysis","score":0.9900000095367432},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/seasonal-time-series","display_name":"seasonal time series","score":0.6779999732971191},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/covid-19-impact-on-tourism","display_name":"COVID-19 impact on tourism","score":0.878000020980835},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/semarang","display_name":"Semarang","score":0.7820000052452087},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/tourism-management","display_name":"tourism management","score":0.6729999780654907},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecasting-accuracy-comparison","display_name":"forecast accuracy comparison","score":0.8830000162124634}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18918823","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q49389","display_name":"Tourism","level":2,"score":0.7799000144004822},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42747912","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1048447","display_name":"Multiplicative function","level":2,"score":0.7775999903678894},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C207864730","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q179467","display_name":"Fourier series","level":2,"score":0.5738000273704529},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151406439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186588","display_name":"Time series","level":2,"score":0.5608000159263611},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C143724316","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q312468","display_name":"Series (stratigraphy)","level":2,"score":0.5504999756813049},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.5250999927520752},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.46619999408721924},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.4115999937057495},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C203024314","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1365258","display_name":"Fourier analysis","level":3,"score":0.3961000144481659},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.34369999170303345},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2986084806","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1172284","display_name":"Data series","level":2,"score":0.3386000096797943},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C102519508","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6520159","display_name":"Fourier transform","level":2,"score":0.3264999985694885},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C9490382","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q729113","display_name":"Weighted arithmetic mean","level":2,"score":0.3190000057220459},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C174303752","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3624438","display_name":"Forecast error","level":2,"score":0.30640000104904175},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42475967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194292","display_name":"Operations research","level":1,"score":0.2980000078678131},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127142870","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7838279","display_name":"Trend analysis","level":2,"score":0.2944999933242798},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.2922999858856201},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C188154048","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6803609","display_name":"Mean absolute error","level":3,"score":0.2904999852180481},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C175706884","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1130194","display_name":"Moving average","level":2,"score":0.27630001306533813},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C125403950","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2111082","display_name":"Seasonality","level":2,"score":0.26649999618530273},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18747219","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q620994","display_name":"Standard error","level":2,"score":0.25940001010894775},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2986587452","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q938438","display_name":"Statistical analysis","level":2,"score":0.2558000087738037},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C22679943","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q159375","display_name":"Standard deviation","level":2,"score":0.2526000142097473}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.15294/ujm.v14i2.27848","doi":"https://doi.org/10.15294/ujm.v14i2.27848","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.15294/ujm.v14i2.27848","pdf_url":"https://journal.unnes.ac.id/journals/ujm/article/download/27848/11862","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4387281262","display_name":"Unnes Journal of Mathematics","issn_l":"2252-6943","issn":["2252-6943","2460-5859"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["doaj"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315212","host_organization_name":"Jurusan Ilmu Komputer Universitas Negeri Semarang","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315212"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Jurusan Ilmu Komputer Universitas Negeri Semarang"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Unnes Journal of Mathematics","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:cd0475d478644c84b058dce2a60f7a97","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/cd0475d478644c84b058dce2a60f7a97","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"UJM (Unnes Journal of Mathematics), Vol 14, Iss 2 (2026)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.15294/ujm.v14i2.27848","doi":"https://doi.org/10.15294/ujm.v14i2.27848","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.15294/ujm.v14i2.27848","pdf_url":"https://journal.unnes.ac.id/journals/ujm/article/download/27848/11862","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4387281262","display_name":"Unnes Journal of Mathematics","issn_l":"2252-6943","issn":["2252-6943","2460-5859"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["doaj"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315212","host_organization_name":"Jurusan Ilmu Komputer Universitas Negeri Semarang","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315212"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Jurusan Ilmu Komputer Universitas Negeri Semarang"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Unnes Journal of Mathematics","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7223138243.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7223138243.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":8,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W2016210396","https://openalex.org/W2085866051","https://openalex.org/W2167036165","https://openalex.org/W2922896031","https://openalex.org/W2939264787","https://openalex.org/W3032407586","https://openalex.org/W4313813238","https://openalex.org/W4390601917"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4407556541","https://openalex.org/W3043711139","https://openalex.org/W7220302252","https://openalex.org/W7070526425","https://openalex.org/W4403761213","https://openalex.org/W2945577432","https://openalex.org/W4405366379","https://openalex.org/W3134546136","https://openalex.org/W4410325057","https://openalex.org/W4407042891"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Forecasting":[0],"is":[1,14,172,182],"a":[2,46,54,151],"crucial":[3],"process":[4],"in":[5,9,35,49,58,96,176],"strategic":[6],"planning,":[7,68],"including":[8],"the":[10,26,41,87,118,146,162,168,195],"tourism":[11,189],"sector,":[12],"which":[13,44],"highly":[15],"influenced":[16],"by":[17],"seasonal":[18,78],"fluctuations":[19],"and":[20,51,77,91,124,135,156,191],"external":[21],"factors.":[22],"In":[23],"Semarang":[24,101,119],"City,":[25],"number":[27],"of":[28,73,107,122,154,158],"tourist":[29,98,109,178],"visits":[30,59,99],"has":[31,60],"experienced":[32],"significant":[33],"changes":[34],"recent":[36],"years,":[37],"particularly":[38],"due":[39],"to":[40,62,85,100,114,161,184,186],"COVID-19":[42],"pandemic,":[43],"caused":[45],"sharp":[47],"decline":[48],"2020":[50],"2021.":[52],"Nevertheless,":[53],"post-pandemic":[55],"upward":[56],"trend":[57,76],"begun":[61],"emerge.":[63],"To":[64],"support":[65],"adaptive,":[66],"data-driven":[67],"accurate":[69,175],"forecasting":[70,97,177],"methods":[71],"capable":[72],"capturing":[74],"both":[75],"patterns":[79],"are":[80],"essential.":[81],"This":[82,180],"study":[83,181],"aims":[84],"compare":[86],"Holt-Winters":[88,147,169],"Multiplicative":[89,148,170],"method":[90,149,171],"Fourier":[92,163],"Series":[93,164],"Analysis":[94,165],"(FSA)":[95],"City.":[102],"The":[103,142],"data":[104],"used":[105],"consist":[106],"monthly":[108],"visit":[110],"records":[111],"from":[112,117],"2017":[113],"2024,":[115],"obtained":[116],"City":[120],"Office":[121],"Culture":[123],"Tourism.":[125],"Forecast":[126],"accuracy":[127],"was":[128],"evaluated":[129],"using":[130],"Mean":[131,137],"Absolute":[132,138],"Error":[133,140],"(MAE)":[134],"Symmetric":[136],"Percentage":[139],"(SMAPE).":[141],"results":[143],"show":[144],"that":[145],"produced":[150],"lower":[152],"MAE":[153],"44,498.31":[155],"SMAPE":[157],"6.76%,":[159],"compared":[160],"method.":[166],"Therefore,":[167],"considered":[173],"more":[174,187],"visits.":[179],"expected":[183],"contribute":[185],"effective":[188],"management":[190],"development":[192],"strategies":[193],"at":[194],"regional":[196],"level.":[197]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-04T10:54:05.112534","created_date":"2026-10-22T00:00:00"}
