{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7223056983","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2610.25210","title":"Negative partisanship drives anti-frontrunner volatility in election dynamics","display_name":"Negative partisanship drives anti-frontrunner volatility in election dynamics","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-10-18","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7223056983","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2610.25210"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2610.25210","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.25210","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.25210","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["arxiv","datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.25210","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5065613423","display_name":"Jos\u00e9 F. Fontanari","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9413-1922","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9413-1922"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I17974374","display_name":"Universidade de S\u00e3o Paulo","ror":"https://ror.org/036rp1748","country_code":"BR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I17974374"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4405267372","display_name":"Instituto de F\u00edsica de S\u00e3o Carlos","ror":"https://ror.org/02f1crb75","country_code":"BR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I17974374","https://openalex.org/I4405267372"]}],"countries":["BR"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Fontanari, Jos\u00e9 F.","raw_affiliation_strings":["Instituto de F\u00edsica de S\u00e3o Carlos , Universidade de S\u00e3o Paulo , 13566-590 S\u00e3o Carlos , S\u00e3o Paulo , Brazil"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Instituto de F\u00edsica de S\u00e3o Carlos , Universidade de S\u00e3o Paulo , 13566-590 S\u00e3o Carlos , S\u00e3o Paulo , Brazil","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I17974374","https://openalex.org/I4405267372"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5065613423"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I17974374","https://openalex.org/I4405267372"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12592","display_name":"Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence","score":0.9682999849319458,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3109","display_name":"Statistical and Nonlinear Physics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/31","display_name":"Physics and Astronomy"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12592","display_name":"Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence","score":0.9682999849319458,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3109","display_name":"Statistical and Nonlinear Physics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/31","display_name":"Physics and Astronomy"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10108","display_name":"Electoral Systems and Political Participation","score":0.030300000682473183,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3320","display_name":"Political Science and International Relations"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11270","display_name":"Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis","score":0.00019999999494757503,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/negative-partisanship","display_name":"negative partisanship","score":0.9990000128746033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/voter-mobilization","display_name":"voter mobilization","score":0.8999999761581421},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/voter-abstention","display_name":"electoral abstention","score":0.8220000267028809},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/pitchfork-bifurcation","display_name":"pitchfork bifurcation","score":0.8289999961853027},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/period-doubling-bifurcation","display_name":"period-doubling bifurcation","score":0.8539999723434448},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/spontaneous-symmetry-breaking","display_name":"spontaneous symmetry breaking","score":0.7839999794960022},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/basins-of-attraction","display_name":"basins of attraction","score":0.8529999852180481}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.5846999883651733},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C164380108","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q507187","display_name":"Attractor","level":2,"score":0.5054000020027161},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204854418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1362921","display_name":"Polling","level":2,"score":0.48420000076293945},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.3912999927997589},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162222271","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q92779871","display_name":"Public good","level":2,"score":0.376800000667572},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C73586568","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2600211","display_name":"Parameter space","level":2,"score":0.36980000138282776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781396049","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942158","display_name":"Voter model","level":2,"score":0.36000001430511475},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781349735","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4904824","display_name":"Bifurcation","level":3,"score":0.3481999933719635},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144237770","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q747534","display_name":"Mathematical economics","level":1,"score":0.3303000032901764},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C91602232","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q756115","display_name":"Volatility (finance)","level":2,"score":0.32190001010894775},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777052490","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5072826","display_name":"Chaotic","level":2,"score":0.320499986410141},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C164660894","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2037833","display_name":"Piecewise","level":2,"score":0.31709998846054077},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780990831","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q319141","display_name":"Conjecture","level":2,"score":0.29829999804496765},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.2962999939918518},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121864883","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q677916","display_name":"Statistical physics","level":1,"score":0.27950000762939453},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781249084","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q908656","display_name":"Preference","level":2,"score":0.26579999923706055},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C156778621","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1365748","display_name":"Spectrum (functional analysis)","level":2,"score":0.2637999951839447},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17095337","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2375229","display_name":"Piecewise linear function","level":2,"score":0.26249998807907104},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C46814582","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23389","display_name":"Nash equilibrium","level":2,"score":0.25920000672340393},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C148220186","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7111912","display_name":"Outcome (game theory)","level":2,"score":0.25780001282691956}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2610.25210","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.25210","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.25210","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2610.25210","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2610.25210","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2610.25210","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2610.25210","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.25210","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.25210","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.6601999998092651,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16","display_name":"Peace, justice, and strong institutions"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320322025","display_name":"Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient\u00edfico e Tecnol\u00f3gico","ror":"https://ror.org/03swz6y49"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7223056983.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7223056983.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3004183414","https://openalex.org/W4408676099","https://openalex.org/W7103186823","https://openalex.org/W4367725013","https://openalex.org/W6884964357","https://openalex.org/W4404507166","https://openalex.org/W7098123091","https://openalex.org/W7203496895","https://openalex.org/W2173132378","https://openalex.org/W2787004625"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Negative":[0],"partisanship-where":[1],"voter":[2,34,43,77],"mobilization":[3],"is":[4],"driven":[5],"primarily":[6],"by":[7,93],"aversion":[8],"toward":[9],"an":[10,63,163],"opposing":[11],"candidate":[12,111,139],"rather":[13],"than":[14,136],"positive":[15],"alignment-profoundly":[16],"reshapes":[17],"modern":[18],"electoral":[19],"dynamics.":[20],"Here,":[21],"we":[22],"formulate":[23],"a":[24,39,53,67,83,107,126],"two-dimensional":[25],"piecewise":[26],"map":[27],"to":[28,88],"model":[29,142],"campaign":[30,70,104,165],"opinion":[31],"dynamics,":[32],"where":[33,98,154],"abstention":[35],"arises":[36],"endogenously":[37],"from":[38],"latent":[40],"spectrum":[41],"of":[42,56,96,162],"activation":[44],"barriers.":[45],"We":[46],"show":[47],"that":[48,144],"cross-candidate":[49],"rejection":[50],"sensitivity":[51],"triggers":[52],"non-smooth":[54],"collapse":[55],"abstention,":[57],"dividing":[58],"the":[59,121],"phase":[60],"space":[61],"into":[62,150],"under-mobilized":[64],"regime":[65],"and":[66],"fully":[68],"mobilized":[69],"regime.":[71],"In":[72],"symmetric":[73,122],"elections":[74,149],"with":[75],"radicalized":[76],"bases,":[78],"spontaneous":[79],"symmetry":[80],"breaking":[81],"via":[82,125],"pitchfork":[84],"bifurcation":[85],"gives":[86],"rise":[87],"asymmetric":[89],"polling":[90,133],"attractors":[91],"partitioned":[92],"mirror-symmetric":[94],"basins":[95],"attraction,":[97],"early":[99],"public":[100],"perceptions-encoded":[101],"in":[102],"initial":[103],"conditions-act":[105],"as":[106],"deterministic":[108],"catalyst":[109],"selecting":[110],"lead":[112],"lock-in":[113],"long":[114],"before":[115],"election":[116,156],"day.":[117],"For":[118],"elevated":[119],"cross-rejection,":[120],"equilibrium":[123],"destabilizes":[124],"period-doubling":[127],"flip":[128],"bifurcation,":[129],"driving":[130],"persistent":[131],"anti-frontrunner":[132],"swings.":[134],"Rather":[135],"predicting":[137],"static":[138],"hegemony,":[140],"our":[141],"reveals":[143],"high":[145],"negative":[146],"partisanship":[147],"turns":[148],"time-sensitive":[151],"dynamical":[152],"systems,":[153],"final":[155],"outcomes":[157],"reflect":[158],"discrete":[159],"sampling":[160],"snapshots":[161],"oscillating":[164],"trajectory.":[166]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-08T12:12:28.789561","created_date":"2026-10-21T00:00:00"}
