{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7221035641","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2610.09715","title":"EC-EarthFlow: Probabilistic emulation of daily transient global climate model simulations with flow matching","display_name":"EC-EarthFlow: Probabilistic emulation of daily transient global climate model simulations with flow matching","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-10-07","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7221035641","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2610.09715"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2610.09715","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.09715","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.09715","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["arxiv","datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.09715","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5030786056","display_name":"Kirien Whan","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1935-7267","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1935-7267"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Whan, Kirien","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5008977631","display_name":"Nikolaj T. M\u00fccke","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2635-9586","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2635-9586"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1309140791","display_name":"Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute","ror":"https://ror.org/05dfgh554","country_code":"NL","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1309140791","https://openalex.org/I331567899","https://openalex.org/I4210140876"]}],"countries":["NL"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"M\u00fccke, Nikolaj T.","raw_affiliation_strings":["KNMI , Utrechtseweg 297 , De Bilt , 3731GA , The Netherlands"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"KNMI , Utrechtseweg 297 , De Bilt , 3731GA , The Netherlands","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1309140791"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5081895812","display_name":"Karin van der Wiel","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9365-5759","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9365-5759"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"van der Wiel, Karin","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":0.8539999723434448,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":0.8539999723434448,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10466","display_name":"Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations","score":0.07819999754428864,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11206","display_name":"Model Reduction and Neural Networks","score":0.045499999076128006,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3109","display_name":"Statistical and Nonlinear Physics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/31","display_name":"Physics and Astronomy"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/flow-matching","display_name":"flow matching","score":0.9089999794960022},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ec-earth3","display_name":"EC-Earth3","score":0.859000027179718},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/global-climate-models","display_name":"global climate models","score":0.546999990940094},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/daily-temperature-prediction","display_name":"daily temperature prediction","score":0.7710000276565552},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mean-annual-temperature","display_name":"mean annual temperature","score":0.7929999828338623},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ssp2-4-5-scenario","display_name":"SSP2-4.5 scenario","score":0.8299999833106995}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149810388","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5374873","display_name":"Emulation","level":2,"score":0.7922999858856201},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165064840","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1321061","display_name":"Matching (statistics)","level":2,"score":0.5717999935150146},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780799671","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17087362","display_name":"Transient (computer programming)","level":2,"score":0.5350000262260437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.527999997138977},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C168754636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q620920","display_name":"Climate model","level":3,"score":0.5146999955177307},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C38349280","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1434290","display_name":"Flow (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.5087000131607056},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C182365436","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q50701","display_name":"Variable (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.5062000155448914},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.4830000102519989},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41156917","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q682831","display_name":"Downscaling","level":3,"score":0.45170000195503235},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.41909998655319214},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.3903999924659729},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776214188","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q408386","display_name":"Inference","level":2,"score":0.3734000027179718},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44154836","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q45045","display_name":"Simulation","level":1,"score":0.37220001220703125},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C9652623","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q190109","display_name":"Field (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.3659999966621399},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3018475017","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q216320","display_name":"Transient flow","level":3,"score":0.35760000348091125},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18762648","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q42213","display_name":"Work (physics)","level":2,"score":0.3276999890804291},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C114289077","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3284399","display_name":"Statistical model","level":2,"score":0.32580000162124634},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132651083","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Climate change","level":2,"score":0.323199987411499},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C116672817","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1454986","display_name":"Physical system","level":2,"score":0.29190000891685486},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C141452985","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q650994","display_name":"General Circulation Model","level":3,"score":0.2727999985218048},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C73000952","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17007827","display_name":"Discretization","level":2,"score":0.2694000005722046},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.2572999894618988},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126255220","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q141495","display_name":"Mathematical optimization","level":1,"score":0.2565999925136566},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119666444","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5977280","display_name":"Temporal resolution","level":2,"score":0.25189998745918274},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.25189998745918274},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C47446073","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5165890","display_name":"Control theory (sociology)","level":3,"score":0.2502000033855438}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2610.09715","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.09715","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.09715","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2610.09715","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2610.09715","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2610.09715","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2610.09715","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.09715","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.09715","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","score":0.9786999821662903,"display_name":"Climate action"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7221035641.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7221035641.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":12,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W2518108298","https://openalex.org/W4297676498","https://openalex.org/W4303647933","https://openalex.org/W4382362038","https://openalex.org/W4387356266","https://openalex.org/W4393063800","https://openalex.org/W4399401448","https://openalex.org/W4414859135","https://openalex.org/W4416530942","https://openalex.org/W4417512511","https://openalex.org/W7140327015","https://openalex.org/W7151543532"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7135240542","https://openalex.org/W7135224894","https://openalex.org/W4417004376","https://openalex.org/W4414742135","https://openalex.org/W6891273421","https://openalex.org/W4220788527","https://openalex.org/W4404342103","https://openalex.org/W4322211615","https://openalex.org/W7133661344","https://openalex.org/W4394867379"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"We":[0,94],"introduce":[1],"EC-EarthFlow,":[2],"a":[3,55,85],"generative":[4],"flow":[5],"matching":[6],"model":[7,15,18],"that":[8,96,105],"emulates":[9],"simulations":[10,23],"from":[11,24,35,82],"the":[12,30,36,72,91,109],"physical":[13,92,110],"climate":[14],"EC-Earth3.":[16,115],"The":[17],"is":[19,98],"trained":[20],"on":[21],"transient":[22],"EC-Earth3":[25,83],"(1950-2166,":[26],"SSP2-4.5)":[27],"to":[28,70],"predict":[29],"day":[31],"ahead":[32],"temperature":[33,39],"field":[34],"previous":[37],"days":[38],"as":[40,42,112],"well":[41],"annual":[43,77],"mean":[44],"temperature.":[45],"Predictions":[46],"are":[47,68],"made":[48],"auto-regressively":[49],"with":[50],"rollout":[51],"periods":[52],"of":[53,65],"between":[54],"month":[56],"and":[57,79,104],"an":[58],"extended":[59],"season.":[60],"Using":[61],"only":[62],"this":[63],"variable":[64],"interest,":[66],"we":[67],"able":[69],"reproduce":[71],"daily":[73],"variability,":[74],"spatial":[75],"patterns,":[76],"cycle":[78],"long-term":[80],"trend":[81],"at":[84],"substantially":[86],"lower":[87],"computational":[88],"cost":[89],"than":[90],"model.":[93],"demonstrate":[95],"EC-EarthFlow":[97],"stable":[99],"for":[100],"long":[101],"inference":[102],"periods,":[103],"it":[106],"can":[107],"learn":[108],"relationships":[111],"simulated":[113],"in":[114]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2026-10-09T00:00:00"}