{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7220914280","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-026-29683-1","title":"A methodological exploration of monthly incidence rate of hepatitis B in China: a time series and machine learning analysis","display_name":"A methodological exploration of monthly incidence rate of hepatitis B in China: a time series and machine learning analysis","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-10-08","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7220914280","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-026-29683-1"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1186/s12889-026-29683-1","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-026-29683-1","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-026-29683-1","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S200437886","display_name":"BMC Public Health","issn_l":"1471-2458","issn":["1471-2458"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-d","doyens","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","oarl","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320256","host_organization_name":"BioMed Central","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320256","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["BioMed Central","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"BMC Public Health","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-026-29683-1","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5015478371","display_name":"Minquan Guan","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I114539943","display_name":"Zhejiang Chinese Medical University","ror":"https://ror.org/04epb4p87","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I114539943"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Minquan Guan","raw_affiliation_strings":["College of Humanities and Management, Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 311053, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"College of Humanities and Management, Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 311053, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I114539943"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5114137231","display_name":"Zhouying Hu","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I114539943","display_name":"Zhejiang Chinese Medical University","ror":"https://ror.org/04epb4p87","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I114539943"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Zhouying Hu","raw_affiliation_strings":["College of Humanities and Management, Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 311053, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"College of Humanities and Management, Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 311053, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I114539943"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5157944238","display_name":"Yichen Lin","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I114539943","display_name":"Zhejiang Chinese Medical University","ror":"https://ror.org/04epb4p87","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I114539943"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Yichen Lin","raw_affiliation_strings":["College of Humanities and Management, Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 311053, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"College of Humanities and Management, Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 311053, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I114539943"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5157982300","display_name":"Xuehui Meng","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I114539943","display_name":"Zhejiang Chinese Medical University","ror":"https://ror.org/04epb4p87","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I114539943"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Xuehui Meng","raw_affiliation_strings":["College of Humanities and Management, Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 311053, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"College of Humanities and Management, Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 311053, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I114539943"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Chengcheng Li","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I114539943","display_name":"Zhejiang Chinese Medical University","ror":"https://ror.org/04epb4p87","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I114539943"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Chengcheng Li","raw_affiliation_strings":["College of Humanities and Management, Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 311053, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"College of Humanities and Management, Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 311053, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I114539943"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I114539943"],"apc_list":{"value":3290,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3290},"apc_paid":{"value":3290,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3290},"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.75518046,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10340","display_name":"Hepatitis B Virus Studies","score":0.9643999934196472,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2713","display_name":"Epidemiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10340","display_name":"Hepatitis B Virus Studies","score":0.9643999934196472,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2713","display_name":"Epidemiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11819","display_name":"Data-Driven Disease Surveillance","score":0.015599999576807022,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2713","display_name":"Epidemiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.0034000000450760126,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/hepatitis-b","display_name":"hepatitis B","score":0.9959999918937683},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/incidence-rates","display_name":"incidence rates","score":0.8600000143051147},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/monthly-incidence","display_name":"monthly incidence","score":0.843999981880188},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/time-series-analysis","display_name":"time series analysis","score":0.7039999961853027},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/machine-learning","display_name":"machine learning","score":0.9620000123977661},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/china","display_name":"China","score":0.41499999165534973}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.8927000164985657},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C140556311","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q214746","display_name":"Biostatistics","level":3,"score":0.7972000241279602},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107130276","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q133805","display_name":"Epidemiology","level":2,"score":0.5839999914169312},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138816342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q189603","display_name":"Public health","level":2,"score":0.5055000185966492},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C61511704","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1671857","display_name":"Incidence (geometry)","level":2,"score":0.49079999327659607},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C143724316","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q312468","display_name":"Series (stratigraphy)","level":2,"score":0.47429999709129333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.4726000130176544},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.4645000100135803},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777382497","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6853","display_name":"Hepatitis B","level":2,"score":0.39730000495910645},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780593183","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6844","display_name":"Hepatitis B virus","level":3,"score":0.3840999901294708},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151406439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186588","display_name":"Time series","level":2,"score":0.3303999900817871},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776029263","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q131742","display_name":"Hepatitis","level":2,"score":0.3111000061035156},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C187212893","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q123028","display_name":"Pediatrics","level":1,"score":0.30480000376701355},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779473830","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1540899","display_name":"MEDLINE","level":2,"score":0.2921999990940094},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149923435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37732","display_name":"Demography","level":1,"score":0.28200000524520874},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C74909509","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q10387","display_name":"Gerontology","level":1,"score":0.2637999951839447}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1186/s12889-026-29683-1","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-026-29683-1","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-026-29683-1","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S200437886","display_name":"BMC Public Health","issn_l":"1471-2458","issn":["1471-2458"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-d","doyens","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","oarl","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320256","host_organization_name":"BioMed Central","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320256","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["BioMed Central","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"BMC Public Health","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1186/s12889-026-29683-1","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-026-29683-1","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-026-29683-1","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S200437886","display_name":"BMC Public Health","issn_l":"1471-2458","issn":["1471-2458"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-d","doyens","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","oarl","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320256","host_organization_name":"BioMed Central","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320256","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["BioMed Central","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"BMC Public Health","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","score":0.98580002784729,"display_name":"Good health and well-being"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7171715896","https://openalex.org/W4224004915","https://openalex.org/W4387606693","https://openalex.org/W2147318394","https://openalex.org/W2366811398","https://openalex.org/W7165652226","https://openalex.org/W2891257922","https://openalex.org/W3195329704","https://openalex.org/W3146008510","https://openalex.org/W2353936405"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Hepatitis":[0],"B":[1,39,63,100,124,171,249],"is":[2,137,158,212,271],"not":[3],"only":[4],"one":[5],"of":[6,37,52,61,82,98,113,122,169,193,196,202,247],"the":[7,13,34,58,68,96,102,109,126,140,146,161,191,242],"most":[8],"severe":[9],"infectious":[10,53,280,290],"diseases":[11],"in":[12,40,64,101,125,156,172,250,264],"world,":[14],"but":[15],"also":[16],"an":[17,29],"important":[18],"public":[19],"health":[20],"issue":[21],"facing":[22],"China.":[23,251],"This":[24,273],"study":[25,274],"aims":[26],"to":[27,75,94,182,214,240],"build":[28],"optimal":[30,110],"prediction":[31,45,200,292],"model":[32,112,236,256],"for":[33,46,278,289],"incidence":[35,59,70,97,120,167,194,245],"rate":[36,121,148,168,195,246],"hepatitis":[38,62,99,123,170,197,248],"China":[41,65,129,136,157,173],"and":[42,49,85,104,119,128,135,154,222,224,231],"provide":[43],"accurate":[44],"early":[47,50],"monitoring":[48],"warning":[51],"diseases.":[54],"We":[55,78],"systematically":[56],"analyzed":[57],"trend":[60,192],"based":[66],"on":[67],"monthly":[69,166,243],"data":[71],"from":[72,179],"January":[73,180],"2001":[74,181],"February":[76,183],"2026.":[77,184],"established":[79],"a":[80,286],"series":[81,84,187,217,266,283],"time":[83,186,216,265,282],"machine":[86,226],"learning":[87,227,255],"models.":[88],"On":[89],"this":[90],"basis,":[91],"we":[92],"tried":[93],"predict":[95,241],"medium":[103],"long":[105],"term":[106],"by":[107,133],"fitting":[108],"discriminant":[111],"LSTM":[114,203,233],"+":[115,204,234,258],"CNN.":[116],"The":[117,164,199,252],"prevalence":[118],"world":[127],"are":[130],"decreasing":[131],"year":[132],"year,":[134],"higher":[138],"than":[139,160],"global":[141,162],"average":[142,165,244],"as":[143,145],"well":[144],"mortality":[147],"among":[149],"elderly":[150],"people":[151],"aged":[152],"55":[153],"above":[155],"lower":[159],"average.":[163],"was":[174],"approximately":[175],"0.7":[176],"per":[177],"10,000":[178],"All":[185],"models":[188,207,218,228],"can":[189],"capture":[190],"B.":[198],"performance":[201,239],"CNN":[205,235],"hybrid":[206,253],"(R":[208],"2":[209],"=":[210],"0.603)":[211],"superior":[213],"traditional":[215],"(exponential":[219],"smoothing":[220],"ARIMA":[221],"SVR)":[223],"individual":[225],"(CNN,":[229],"GRU,":[230],"LSTM).":[232],"demonstrates":[237],"competitive":[238],"deep":[254],"(LSTM":[257],"CNN)":[259],"has":[260],"shown":[261],"great":[262],"potential":[263],"prediction,":[267],"although":[268],"further":[269],"validation":[270],"needed.":[272],"explores":[275],"effective":[276],"methods":[277],"predicting":[279],"disease":[281,291],"models,":[284],"providing":[285],"new":[287],"perspective":[288],"studies.":[293]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-10-14T16:39:01.820549","created_date":"2026-10-09T00:00:00"}
