{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7220913377","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2610.10490","title":"Standard estimators cannot represent fault-tolerant workloads at measured error rates: evaluated, evidence-based uncertainty for quantum resource estimation","display_name":"Standard estimators cannot represent fault-tolerant workloads at measured error rates: evaluated, evidence-based uncertainty for quantum resource estimation","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-10-07","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7220913377","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2610.10490"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2610.10490","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.10490","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.10490","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["arxiv","datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.10490","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5069039906","display_name":"Furqan Nasir","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5259-3448","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5259-3448"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I201384688","display_name":"National University of Computer and Emerging Sciences","ror":"https://ror.org/003eyb898","country_code":"PK","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I201384688"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I3132053282","display_name":"City University of Science and Information Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/02jsdya97","country_code":"PK","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I3132053282"]}],"countries":["PK"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Nasir, Furqan","raw_affiliation_strings":["City University of Science and Information Technology , Peshawar , Pakistan","National University of Computer and Emerging Sciences (FAST-NUCES) , Islamabad , Pakistan"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"City University of Science and Information Technology , Peshawar , Pakistan","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I3132053282"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"National University of Computer and Emerging Sciences (FAST-NUCES) , Islamabad , Pakistan","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I201384688"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5077838904","display_name":"Sher Jeel Ahmad","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I90610274","display_name":"University of Engineering and Technology Peshawar","ror":"https://ror.org/00p034093","country_code":"PK","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I90610274"]}],"countries":["PK"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ahmad, Sher Jeel","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Engineering and Technology , Peshawar , Pakistan"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Engineering and Technology , Peshawar , Pakistan","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I90610274"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10682","display_name":"Quantum Computing Algorithms and Architecture","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10682","display_name":"Quantum Computing Algorithms and Architecture","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10020","display_name":"Quantum Information and Cryptography","score":0.0003000000142492354,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3107","display_name":"Atomic and Molecular Physics, and Optics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/31","display_name":"Physics and Astronomy"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10054","display_name":"Parallel Computing and Optimization Techniques","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1708","display_name":"Hardware and Architecture"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/quantum-resource-estimation","display_name":"quantum resource estimation","score":0.9670000076293945},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/fault-tolerant-quantum-computation","display_name":"fault-tolerant quantum computing","score":0.8429999947547913},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/surface-code","display_name":"surface code","score":0.8090000152587891},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cost-model","display_name":"cost model","score":0.5389999747276306},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/error-propagation","display_name":"error propagation","score":0.5870000123977661},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/prior-distributions","display_name":"prior distributions","score":0.7160000205039978},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/pre-registered-evaluation","display_name":"pre-registered evaluation","score":0.7549999952316284},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/superconducting-qubits","display_name":"superconducting qubits","score":0.7300000190734863},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/rsa-2048","display_name":"RSA-2048","score":0.7919999957084656}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185429906","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1130160","display_name":"Estimator","level":2,"score":0.8716999888420105},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41426520","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1192065","display_name":"Point estimation","level":2,"score":0.5633999705314636},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778067643","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q166507","display_name":"Interval (graph theory)","level":2,"score":0.5396000146865845},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11413529","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8366","display_name":"Algorithm","level":1,"score":0.526199996471405},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5120999813079834},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C65155139","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5380912","display_name":"Envelope (radar)","level":3,"score":0.43810001015663147},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C28719098","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q44946","display_name":"Point (geometry)","level":2,"score":0.4147999882698059},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C84114770","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q46344","display_name":"Quantum","level":2,"score":0.40209999680519104},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151201525","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q177239","display_name":"Limit (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.3991999924182892},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C19619285","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q196372","display_name":"Observational error","level":2,"score":0.35670000314712524},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C206345919","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q20380951","display_name":"Resource (disambiguation)","level":2,"score":0.3537999987602234},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21200559","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7451068","display_name":"Sensitivity (control systems)","level":2,"score":0.3476000130176544},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.34369999170303345},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18747219","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q620994","display_name":"Standard error","level":2,"score":0.34200000762939453},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C137209882","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1403517","display_name":"Measurement uncertainty","level":2,"score":0.34040001034736633},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777210771","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4927124","display_name":"Block (permutation group theory)","level":2,"score":0.33550000190734863},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205167067","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3300636","display_name":"Interval estimation","level":3,"score":0.3237000107765198},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.32339999079704285},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C103088060","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1062839","display_name":"Error detection and correction","level":2,"score":0.3021000027656555},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C51003876","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1536431","display_name":"Quantum error correction","level":4,"score":0.30140000581741333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177769412","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q278090","display_name":"Prior probability","level":3,"score":0.30070000886917114},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C167928553","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1376021","display_name":"Estimation theory","level":2,"score":0.29989999532699585},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126255220","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q141495","display_name":"Mathematical optimization","level":1,"score":0.29980000853538513},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121117317","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4439221","display_name":"Credible interval","level":3,"score":0.29679998755455017},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C58053490","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q176555","display_name":"Quantum computer","level":3,"score":0.289900004863739},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780801425","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5164392","display_name":"Construct (python library)","level":2,"score":0.288100004196167},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C137019171","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2623817","display_name":"Quantum algorithm","level":3,"score":0.28360000252723694},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C96250715","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q965330","display_name":"Estimation","level":2,"score":0.26589998602867126},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C170797541","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q452399","display_name":"Error bar","level":2,"score":0.25870001316070557},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C84211073","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q117879","display_name":"Floating point","level":2,"score":0.2581999897956848},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77265313","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q879844","display_name":"Rest (music)","level":2,"score":0.25679999589920044},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C101454708","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17106019","display_name":"Standard Model (mathematical formulation)","level":3,"score":0.2533999979496002}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2610.10490","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.10490","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.10490","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2610.10490","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2610.10490","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2610.10490","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2610.10490","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.10490","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.10490","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7220913377.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7220913377.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":23,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W100464641","https://openalex.org/W2030867075","https://openalex.org/W2149426898","https://openalex.org/W2886696706","https://openalex.org/W2924337219","https://openalex.org/W2946582523","https://openalex.org/W2949288242","https://openalex.org/W2952708034","https://openalex.org/W2979004593","https://openalex.org/W2982169647","https://openalex.org/W3085453714","https://openalex.org/W3178633198","https://openalex.org/W4280552546","https://openalex.org/W4309424751","https://openalex.org/W4321610982","https://openalex.org/W4401503827","https://openalex.org/W4403593927","https://openalex.org/W4405183524","https://openalex.org/W4408109527","https://openalex.org/W4416191592","https://openalex.org/W4416445983","https://openalex.org/W4417174514","https://openalex.org/W7141133603"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4388581260","https://openalex.org/W7099053262","https://openalex.org/W3102303141","https://openalex.org/W232541263","https://openalex.org/W7203951776","https://openalex.org/W3183562478","https://openalex.org/W7155055157","https://openalex.org/W2917776514","https://openalex.org/W1967254001","https://openalex.org/W7197052146"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Estimates":[0],"of":[1,169,193,226],"the":[2,56,86,90,110,114,130,135,194,199,242,246],"quantum":[3],"resources":[4],"needed":[5],"to":[6,65,118,159,190],"run":[7],"fault-tolerant":[8,42],"algorithms":[9],"are":[10],"almost":[11],"always":[12],"reported":[13],"as":[14],"single":[15,176],"numbers,":[16],"even":[17],"though":[18],"they":[19],"rest":[20],"on":[21,26,73],"uncertain":[22],"hardware":[23,43,93,255],"parameters":[24,44],"and":[25,54,69,122,152,198,245],"cost":[27,48,141],"models":[28],"that":[29,37,83,154,174,248],"disagree.":[30],"We":[31],"present":[32],"an":[33],"open,":[34],"tool-agnostic":[35],"framework":[36],"propagates":[38],"evidence-based":[39,195,240],"priors":[40],"over":[41],"through":[45],"five":[46,100,138],"surface-code":[47,76],"models,":[49,142],"adds":[50],"correlated-input":[51],"sensitivity":[52],"analysis,":[53],"evaluates":[55],"resulting":[57],"intervals":[58],"with":[59,156],"a":[60,70,74,166,171],"pre-registered":[61,243],"three-layer":[62],"protocol.":[63],"Applied":[64],"RSA-2048,":[66],"ECC-256,":[67],"AES-256,":[68],"Hubbard-model":[71],"simulation":[72],"superconducting":[75],"architecture,":[77],"it":[78],"produces":[79],"three":[80],"coupled":[81],"findings":[82],"together":[84],"undermine":[85],"single-number":[87],"convention.":[88],"Propagating":[89],"error":[91,216],"rates":[92,217],"has":[94],"actually":[95],"demonstrated,":[96],"whose":[97],"median":[98,125],"across":[99],"large-array":[101],"devices":[102],"is":[103,234,238],"about":[104,126,161],"4":[105],"x":[106],"10^-3":[107],"rather":[108],"than":[109],"conventional":[111,131],"10^-3,":[112],"widens":[113],"90%":[115],"physical-qubit":[116],"interval":[117],"roughly":[119],"forty":[120],"times":[121,128],"lifts":[123],"its":[124,239],"4.6":[127],"above":[129],"point":[132],"estimate.":[133],"Against":[134],"same":[136],"inputs,":[137],"independently":[139],"structured":[140],"including":[143],"two":[144],"third-party":[145,182],"estimators":[146,183],"(the":[147],"Azure":[148],"Quantum":[149],"Resource":[150],"Estimator":[151],"Qualtran)":[153],"agree":[155],"each":[157],"other":[158],"within":[160],"ten":[162],"percent,":[163],"disagree":[164],"by":[165],"stable":[167],"factor":[168],"two,":[170],"structural":[172],"uncertainty":[173,230],"no":[175],"tool":[177],"reveals.":[178],"Most":[179],"consequentially,":[180],"both":[181],"exceed":[184],"their":[185],"representable":[186],"envelope":[187],"for":[188],"80":[189],"100":[191],"percent":[192],"parameter":[196],"space,":[197],"AES-256":[200],"gate":[201],"count":[202],"overflows":[203],"one":[204,225],"tool's":[205],"counter":[206],"outright,":[207],"so":[208],"these":[209,227],"workloads":[210],"cannot":[211],"be":[212],"represented":[213],"at":[214,218],"measured":[215],"all.":[219],"The":[220,229,236],"optimistic":[221],"convention":[222],"conceals":[223],"every":[224],"effects.":[228],"machinery":[231],"we":[232],"use":[233],"standard.":[235],"contribution":[237],"application,":[241],"evaluation,":[244],"finding":[247],"standard":[249],"tools":[250],"break":[251],"down":[252],"precisely":[253],"where":[254],"operates.":[256]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2026-10-09T00:00:00"}