{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7220868206","doi":"https://doi.org/10.32942/x2tt3g","title":"Human disturbance and the magnitude and predictability of phenotypic divergence","display_name":"Human disturbance and the magnitude and predictability of phenotypic divergence","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-10-07","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7220868206","doi":"https://doi.org/10.32942/x2tt3g"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.32942/x2tt3g","doi":"https://doi.org/10.32942/x2tt3g","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.32942/x2tt3g","pdf_url":"https://ecoevorxiv.org/repository/object/15389/download/26679/","source":null,"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://ecoevorxiv.org/repository/object/15389/download/26679/","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5008999259","display_name":"Santiago Ortega","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3518-276X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3518-276X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I154425047","display_name":"University of Alberta","ror":"https://ror.org/0160cpw27","country_code":"CA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I154425047"]}],"countries":["CA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Santiago Ortega","raw_affiliation_strings":["Collaboration for Open Science and Synthesis in Ecology and Evolution (COSSEE) , Department of Biological Sciences , Faculty of Science , University of Alberta , Edmonton , Canada"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3518-276X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Collaboration for Open Science and Synthesis in Ecology and Evolution (COSSEE) , Department of Biological Sciences , Faculty of Science , University of Alberta , Edmonton , Canada","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I154425047"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5085008141","display_name":"Eduardo S. A. Santos","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0434-3655","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0434-3655"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I154425047","display_name":"University of Alberta","ror":"https://ror.org/0160cpw27","country_code":"CA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I154425047"]}],"countries":["CA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Eduardo Santos","raw_affiliation_strings":["Collaboration for Open Science and Synthesis in Ecology and Evolution (COSSEE) , Department of Biological Sciences , Faculty of Science , University of Alberta , Edmonton , Canada"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0434-3655","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Collaboration for Open Science and Synthesis in Ecology and Evolution (COSSEE) , Department of Biological Sciences , Faculty of Science , University of Alberta , Edmonton , Canada","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I154425047"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5067067911","display_name":"Kiyoko M. Gotanda","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3666-0700","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3666-0700"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I186803428","display_name":"Brock University","ror":"https://ror.org/056am2717","country_code":"CA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I186803428"]}],"countries":["CA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Kiyoko Gotanda","raw_affiliation_strings":["Brock University , Ontario , Canada"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Brock University , Ontario , Canada","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I186803428"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5102896123","display_name":"Sarah Sanderson","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1525-2326","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1525-2326"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I5023651","display_name":"McGill University","ror":"https://ror.org/01pxwe438","country_code":"CA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I5023651"]}],"countries":["CA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Sarah Sanderson","raw_affiliation_strings":["McGill University , Quebec , Canada"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"McGill University , Quebec , Canada","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I5023651"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5058817731","display_name":"Lucas D. Gorn\u00e9","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1940-1755","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1940-1755"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I151201029","display_name":"Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cient\u00edficas y T\u00e9cnicas","ror":"https://ror.org/03cqe8w59","country_code":"AR","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I151201029","https://openalex.org/I4210123736","https://openalex.org/I4387155568"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I166401450","display_name":"Universidad Nacional de C\u00f3rdoba","ror":"https://ror.org/056tb7j80","country_code":"AR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I166401450"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210151079","display_name":"Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biolog\u00eda Vegetal","ror":"https://ror.org/04vhn6x78","country_code":"AR","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I151201029","https://openalex.org/I166401450","https://openalex.org/I4210123736","https://openalex.org/I4210151079","https://openalex.org/I4387155568"]}],"countries":["AR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Lucas Gorne","raw_affiliation_strings":["Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cient\u00edficas y T\u00e9cnicas , CONICET , IMBiV , C\u00f3rdoba , Argentina","Universidad Nacional de C\u00f3rdoba , Facultad de Ciencias Exactas , F\u00edsicas y Naturales , C\u00f3rdoba , Argentina"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cient\u00edficas y T\u00e9cnicas , CONICET , IMBiV , C\u00f3rdoba , Argentina","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I151201029","https://openalex.org/I4210151079"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Universidad Nacional de C\u00f3rdoba , Facultad de Ciencias Exactas , F\u00edsicas y Naturales , C\u00f3rdoba , Argentina","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I166401450"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5157822138","display_name":"Andrew Hendry","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I5023651","display_name":"McGill University","ror":"https://ror.org/01pxwe438","country_code":"CA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I5023651"]}],"countries":["CA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Andrew Hendry","raw_affiliation_strings":["McGill University , Quebec , Canada"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"McGill University , Quebec , Canada","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I5023651"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5064087878","display_name":"Shinichi Nakagawa","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7765-5182","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7765-5182","https://orcid.org/0009-0009-9277-1673","https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1697-1234"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I154425047","display_name":"University of Alberta","ror":"https://ror.org/0160cpw27","country_code":"CA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I154425047"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I31746571","display_name":"UNSW Sydney","ror":"https://ror.org/03r8z3t63","country_code":"AU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I31746571"]}],"countries":["AU","CA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Shinichi Nakagawa","raw_affiliation_strings":["Collaboration for Open Science and Synthesis in Ecology and Evolution (COSSEE) , Department of Biological Sciences , Faculty of Science , University of Alberta , Edmonton , Canada","Evolution and Ecology Research Centre , School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences , University of New South Wales , Sydney , New South Wales , Australia"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7765-5182","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Collaboration for Open Science and Synthesis in Ecology and Evolution (COSSEE) , Department of Biological Sciences , Faculty of Science , University of Alberta , Edmonton , Canada","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I154425047"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Evolution and Ecology Research Centre , School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences , University of New South Wales , Sydney , New South Wales , Australia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I31746571"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":3,"institutions_distinct_count":7,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10174","display_name":"Animal Behavior and Reproduction","score":0.48170000314712524,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1105","display_name":"Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/11","display_name":"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/1","display_name":"Life Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10174","display_name":"Animal Behavior and Reproduction","score":0.48170000314712524,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1105","display_name":"Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/11","display_name":"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/1","display_name":"Life Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12417","display_name":"Morphological variations and asymmetry","score":0.4083999991416931,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1105","display_name":"Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/11","display_name":"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/1","display_name":"Life Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10005","display_name":"Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies","score":0.05139999836683273,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2309","display_name":"Nature and Landscape Conservation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/phenotypic-divergence","display_name":"phenotypic divergence","score":0.9599999785423279},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/anthropogenic-disturbance","display_name":"human disturbance","score":0.8700000047683716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/environmental-change","display_name":"environmental change","score":0.9129999876022339},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/intrapopulation-variation","display_name":"intrapopulation variation","score":0.7860000133514404},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/landscape-change","display_name":"landscape change","score":0.8220000267028809},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/introduced-species","display_name":"introduced species","score":0.8899999856948853},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/natural-variability","display_name":"natural variation","score":0.5709999799728394}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C197640229","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2534066","display_name":"Predictability","level":2,"score":0.9176999926567078},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C207390915","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1230525","display_name":"Divergence (linguistics)","level":2,"score":0.6326000094413757},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C63479239","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7353546","display_name":"Robustness (evolution)","level":3,"score":0.5644999742507935},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.5504000186920166},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18903297","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7150","display_name":"Ecology","level":1,"score":0.5060999989509583},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126691448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2028919","display_name":"Magnitude (astronomy)","level":2,"score":0.4794999957084656},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C75268714","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43478","display_name":"Natural selection","level":3,"score":0.4221000075340271},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777601987","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5283581","display_name":"Disturbance (geology)","level":2,"score":0.41670000553131104},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778334786","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1586270","display_name":"Variation (astronomy)","level":2,"score":0.4043000042438507},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.39640000462532043},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C78458016","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q840400","display_name":"Evolutionary biology","level":1,"score":0.3601999878883362},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C16989226","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q16934857","display_name":"Environmental change","level":3,"score":0.3546000123023987},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204323151","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q905424","display_name":"Range (aeronautics)","level":2,"score":0.35359999537467957},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C130073038","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1211967","display_name":"Phenotypic trait","level":4,"score":0.32710000872612},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776502983","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q690182","display_name":"Contrast (vision)","level":2,"score":0.31209999322891235},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C83546350","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1139051","display_name":"Regression","level":2,"score":0.30480000376701355},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.2955999970436096},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C131892835","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q770985","display_name":"Intraspecific competition","level":2,"score":0.2815999984741211},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132651083","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Climate change","level":2,"score":0.27239999175071716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C180478619","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7574066","display_name":"Spatial heterogeneity","level":2,"score":0.27230000495910645},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138528620","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2510752","display_name":"Explained variation","level":2,"score":0.2612000107765198},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C176771619","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7189434","display_name":"Phylogenetic comparative methods","level":4,"score":0.26109999418258667},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62277055","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q295130","display_name":"Phenotypic plasticity","level":2,"score":0.2533000111579895}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.32942/x2tt3g","doi":"https://doi.org/10.32942/x2tt3g","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.32942/x2tt3g","pdf_url":"https://ecoevorxiv.org/repository/object/15389/download/26679/","source":null,"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},{"id":"pmh:oai:eer:id:15389","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://ecoevorxiv.org/repository/object/15389/download/26679/","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402488","display_name":"EcoEvoRxiv","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2799848540","host_organization_name":"Center for Open Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2799848540"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"EcoEvoRxiv","raw_type":"PREPRINTS"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.32942/x2tt3g","doi":"https://doi.org/10.32942/x2tt3g","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.32942/x2tt3g","pdf_url":"https://ecoevorxiv.org/repository/object/15389/download/26679/","source":null,"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/15","display_name":"Life on land","score":0.4390000104904175}],"study_designs":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/study-designs/systematic-review","display_name":"Systematic Review"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/study-designs/meta-analysis","display_name":"Meta-Analysis"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7220868206.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7220868206.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":40,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1484302957","https://openalex.org/W1975258901","https://openalex.org/W1978789361","https://openalex.org/W1981048891","https://openalex.org/W1998701857","https://openalex.org/W2007545512","https://openalex.org/W2029322682","https://openalex.org/W2046867703","https://openalex.org/W2079626788","https://openalex.org/W2100567340","https://openalex.org/W2121043175","https://openalex.org/W2137070227","https://openalex.org/W2137315112","https://openalex.org/W2146746507","https://openalex.org/W2151409320","https://openalex.org/W2153330886","https://openalex.org/W2157823046","https://openalex.org/W2160677828","https://openalex.org/W2177436571","https://openalex.org/W2325035367","https://openalex.org/W2327636343","https://openalex.org/W2330799768","https://openalex.org/W2510591646","https://openalex.org/W2562292836","https://openalex.org/W2749069611","https://openalex.org/W2771732988","https://openalex.org/W2920804790","https://openalex.org/W2951002538","https://openalex.org/W3071131253","https://openalex.org/W3158015415","https://openalex.org/W3205870002","https://openalex.org/W3207158199","https://openalex.org/W4205264064","https://openalex.org/W4311032675","https://openalex.org/W4387655731","https://openalex.org/W4408162334","https://openalex.org/W4410033600","https://openalex.org/W4410700034","https://openalex.org/W7131086334","https://openalex.org/W7214572411"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7162543627","https://openalex.org/W2083437033","https://openalex.org/W4408162334","https://openalex.org/W2095453556","https://openalex.org/W6929837548","https://openalex.org/W2960465278","https://openalex.org/W4205264064","https://openalex.org/W2160677828","https://openalex.org/W1791998995","https://openalex.org/W2026665214"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Environmental":[0],"change":[1,5,139,153,221],"can":[2,222],"drive":[3],"phenotypic":[4,22,51,72,102,225],"within":[6,83],"species,":[7,42],"but":[8,106,227],"it":[9],"remains":[10],"unclear":[11],"whether":[12,45],"such":[13],"responses":[14,160,246],"produce":[15,223],"a":[16,28,122,190],"general":[17],"and":[18,40,48,57,61,85,94,140,182,208,211,251],"predictable":[19],"degree":[20],"of":[21,31,50,64,125,178],"divergence":[23,52,93,103,145],"across":[24,58,236],"populations.":[25],"We":[26,66],"conducted":[27],"preregistered":[29],"reanalysis":[30],"PROCEED":[32],"v6.2,":[33],"comprising":[34],"7,186":[35],"contrasts":[36,169],"from":[37],"254":[38],"references":[39],"253":[41],"to":[43,70,79,90,161,216,249],"test":[44],"the":[46,80,99,175],"magnitude":[47,124,230],"predictability":[49,133,177,233],"differ":[53],"among":[54,168],"disturbance":[55],"contexts":[56,128],"temporal,":[59],"biological,":[60],"methodological":[62],"characteristics":[63,204],"studies.":[65],"used":[67],"ln":[68],"M":[69],"quantify":[71],"differences":[73],"between":[74],"paired":[75],"population":[76],"samples":[77],"relative":[78],"variation":[81,167,186],"retained":[82],"them":[84],"fitted":[86],"phylogenetic":[87],"location--scale":[88],"meta-regressions":[89],"model":[91],"average":[92,101,136],"residual":[95],"heterogeneity":[96,115,240],"jointly.":[97],"Across":[98],"dataset,":[100],"was":[104,154],"substantial":[105,224],"did":[107],"not":[108],"consistently":[109,164],"exceed":[110],"within-population":[111],"variation,":[112,150],"while":[113,151],"total":[114],"reached":[116],"96.6%,":[117],"providing":[118],"little":[119],"support":[120],"for":[121,239],"universal":[123],"divergence.":[126,137],"Disturbance":[127],"differed":[129],"more":[130],"strongly":[131],"in":[132,135,147,183],"than":[134,146,170],"Landscape":[138],"introduced":[141,162],"populations":[142],"showed":[143,165],"greater":[144,166],"situ":[148,184],"natural":[149,185],"landscape":[152],"also":[155],"comparatively":[156],"predictable.":[157],"By":[158],"contrast,":[159],"species":[163],"most":[171],"other":[172],"contexts,":[173],"whereas":[174],"lower":[176],"hunting":[179],"or":[180],"harvesting":[181],"depended":[187],"partly":[188,209],"on":[189],"single":[191],"large":[192],"Pacific":[193],"salmon":[194],"dataset.":[195],"Moderator":[196],"associations":[197],"should":[198],"be":[199],"interpreted":[200],"cautiously":[201],"because":[202],"study":[203],"were":[205,214],"unevenly":[206],"represented":[207],"confounded,":[210],"some":[212],"results":[213],"sensitive":[215],"robustness":[217],"analyses.":[218],"Overall,":[219],"environmental":[220],"divergence,":[226],"neither":[228],"its":[229,232],"nor":[231],"is":[234,255],"uniform":[235],"systems.":[237],"Accounting":[238],"therefore":[241],"reveals":[242],"when":[243,252],"broad":[244],"comparative":[245],"are":[247],"likely":[248],"generalize":[250],"population-specific":[253],"evidence":[254],"required.":[256]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-04T10:54:05.112534","created_date":"2026-10-08T00:00:00"}
