{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7220863342","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026ef008071","title":"The 2023\u20132024 El Ni\u00f1o as a Preview of Future Tropical Forest Climate","display_name":"The 2023\u20132024 El Ni\u00f1o as a Preview of Future Tropical Forest Climate","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-10-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7220863342","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026ef008071"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1029/2026ef008071","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026ef008071","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026ef008071","pdf_url":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1029/2026EF008071","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764782578","display_name":"Earth s Future","issn_l":"2328-4277","issn":["2328-4277"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-b","jufo-2","ki-jl-1","norway-1","oarl","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315809","host_organization_name":"American Geophysical Union","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315809"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["American Geophysical Union"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Earth's Future","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1029/2026EF008071","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5040282899","display_name":"Johanna Van Passel","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3783-6915","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3783-6915"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I32597200","display_name":"Ghent University","ror":"https://ror.org/00cv9y106","country_code":"BE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I32597200"]}],"countries":["BE"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Johanna Van Passel","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Environment Q\u2010ForestLab Ghent University  Ghent Belgium"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3783-6915","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Environment Q\u2010ForestLab Ghent University  Ghent Belgium","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I32597200"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5057834600","display_name":"Steven Johan De Hertog","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5733-4632","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5733-4632"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I32597200","display_name":"Ghent University","ror":"https://ror.org/00cv9y106","country_code":"BE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I32597200"]}],"countries":["BE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Steven J. De Hertog","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Environment Q\u2010ForestLab Ghent University  Ghent Belgium"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5733-4632","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Environment Q\u2010ForestLab Ghent University  Ghent Belgium","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I32597200"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5084516273","display_name":"Hans Verbeeck","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1490-0168","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1490-0168"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I32597200","display_name":"Ghent University","ror":"https://ror.org/00cv9y106","country_code":"BE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I32597200"]}],"countries":["BE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Hans Verbeeck","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Environment Q\u2010ForestLab Ghent University  Ghent Belgium"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Environment Q\u2010ForestLab Ghent University  Ghent Belgium","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I32597200"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5070378593","display_name":"Philippe Ciais","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8560-4943","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8560-4943"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1294671590","display_name":"Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique","ror":"https://ror.org/02feahw73","country_code":"FR","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1294671590"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I195731000","display_name":"Universit\u00e9 de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines","ror":"https://ror.org/03mkjjy25","country_code":"FR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I195731000","https://openalex.org/I277688954"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2738703131","display_name":"Commissariat \u00e0 l'\u00c9nergie Atomique et aux \u00c9nergies Alternatives","ror":"https://ror.org/00jjx8s55","country_code":"FR","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2738703131"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2801360556","display_name":"CEA Paris-Saclay - Etablissement de Saclay","ror":"https://ror.org/01fv25t22","country_code":"FR","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2738703131","https://openalex.org/I277688954","https://openalex.org/I2801360556","https://openalex.org/I4210128565"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210124937","display_name":"Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement","ror":"https://ror.org/03dsd0g48","country_code":"FR","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1294671590","https://openalex.org/I195731000","https://openalex.org/I2738703131","https://openalex.org/I277688954","https://openalex.org/I4210113668","https://openalex.org/I4210124937","https://openalex.org/I4210148025"]}],"countries":["FR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Philippe Ciais","raw_affiliation_strings":["Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l'environnement CEA CNRS UVSQ U Paris\u2010Saclay  Gif sur Yvette France"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8560-4943","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l'environnement CEA CNRS UVSQ U Paris\u2010Saclay  Gif sur Yvette France","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1294671590","https://openalex.org/I195731000","https://openalex.org/I2738703131","https://openalex.org/I2801360556","https://openalex.org/I4210124937"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5061716468","display_name":"Peter Groenendijk","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2752-6195","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2752-6195"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I181391015","display_name":"Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)","ror":"https://ror.org/04wffgt70","country_code":"BR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I181391015"]}],"countries":["BR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Peter Groenendijk","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Plant Biology Institute of Biology University of Campinas  Campinas Brazil"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2752-6195","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Plant Biology Institute of Biology University of Campinas  Campinas Brazil","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I181391015"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5078860098","display_name":"Andr\u00e9s Mart\u00ednez de Velasco","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0005-2406-2550","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0005-2406-2550"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I32597200","display_name":"Ghent University","ror":"https://ror.org/00cv9y106","country_code":"BE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I32597200"]}],"countries":["BE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Andr\u00e9s Mart\u00ednez de Velasco","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Environment Q\u2010ForestLab Ghent University  Ghent Belgium"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Environment Q\u2010ForestLab Ghent University  Ghent Belgium","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I32597200"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5157807938","display_name":"Peter van der Sleen","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I913481162","display_name":"Wageningen University & Research","ror":"https://ror.org/04qw24q55","country_code":"NL","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I913481162"]}],"countries":["NL"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Peter van der Sleen","raw_affiliation_strings":["Forest Ecology & Forest Management Group Wageningen University  Wageningen The Netherlands"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Forest Ecology & Forest Management Group Wageningen University  Wageningen The Netherlands","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I913481162"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5047291253","display_name":"Pieter A. Zuidema","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8100-1168","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8100-1168"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I913481162","display_name":"Wageningen University & Research","ror":"https://ror.org/04qw24q55","country_code":"NL","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I913481162"]}],"countries":["NL"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Pieter A. Zuidema","raw_affiliation_strings":["Forest Ecology & Forest Management Group Wageningen University  Wageningen The Netherlands"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8100-1168","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Forest Ecology & Forest Management Group Wageningen University  Wageningen The Netherlands","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I913481162"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5084380857","display_name":"F\u00e9licien Meunier","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2486-309X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2486-309X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I32597200","display_name":"Ghent University","ror":"https://ror.org/00cv9y106","country_code":"BE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I32597200"]}],"countries":["BE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"F\u00e9licien Meunier","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Environment Q\u2010ForestLab Ghent University  Ghent Belgium","Isotope Bioscience Laboratory Ghent University  Ghent Belgium"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2486-309X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Environment Q\u2010ForestLab Ghent University  Ghent Belgium","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I32597200"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Isotope Bioscience Laboratory Ghent University  Ghent Belgium","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I32597200"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":4,"institutions_distinct_count":8,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5040282899"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I32597200"],"apc_list":{"value":3180,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3180},"apc_paid":{"value":3180,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3180},"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.74752387,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"14","issue":"10","first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":0.9463000297546387,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":0.9463000297546387,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10266","display_name":"Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics","score":0.0284000001847744,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11186","display_name":"Hydrology and Drought Analysis","score":0.012400000356137753,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/tropical-forests","display_name":"tropical forests","score":0.9549999833106995},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/compound-drought","display_name":"compound drought","score":0.8130000233650208},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/heat-waves","display_name":"heat waves","score":0.9729999899864197},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climate-change-projections","display_name":"climate change projections","score":0.7960000038146973},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/amazon-rainforest","display_name":"Amazon rainforest","score":0.8180000185966492},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climate-anomalies","display_name":"climate anomalies","score":0.5170000195503235},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/carbon-cycle","display_name":"carbon cycle","score":0.5950000286102295},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/greenhouse-gas-emissions-reduction","display_name":"greenhouse gas emissions reduction","score":0.7020000219345093},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forest-resilience","display_name":"forest resilience","score":0.5799999833106995}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776843288","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1806912","display_name":"Pantropical","level":3,"score":0.9204999804496765},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49204034","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52139","display_name":"Climatology","level":1,"score":0.6434000134468079},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.6251999735832214},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C50660011","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q42530","display_name":"Tropics","level":2,"score":0.5630999803543091},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132651083","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Climate change","level":2,"score":0.5437999963760376},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776172968","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q135712","display_name":"Tropical climate","level":2,"score":0.516700029373169},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776285232","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1048194","display_name":"Tropical forest","level":2,"score":0.46869999170303345},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C115343472","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Global warming","level":3,"score":0.43880000710487366},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C168754636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q620920","display_name":"Climate model","level":3,"score":0.40299999713897705},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C47737302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q167336","display_name":"Greenhouse gas","level":2,"score":0.397599995136261},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779547961","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7845752","display_name":"Tropical Atlantic","level":3,"score":0.3903999924659729},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.3815999925136566},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2988944679","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7937","display_name":"Global climate","level":3,"score":0.3531999886035919},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C29141058","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8092","display_name":"Tropical cyclone","level":2,"score":0.3345000147819519},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C108216600","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q511668","display_name":"Tropical and subtropical dry broadleaf forests","level":2,"score":0.32199999690055847},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199491958","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q737514","display_name":"Global change","level":3,"score":0.3165000081062317},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777399953","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2155658","display_name":"Deforestation (computer science)","level":2,"score":0.29820001125335693},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2993643576","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1277161","display_name":"Climate extremes","level":3,"score":0.29429998993873596},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3987366","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6658164","display_name":"Livelihood","level":3,"score":0.29089999198913574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C101577382","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q863882","display_name":"Tropical monsoon climate","level":3,"score":0.2831000089645386},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C14168384","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q16305538","display_name":"Subtropics","level":2,"score":0.28209999203681946},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C535291247","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q177567","display_name":"Amazon rainforest","level":2,"score":0.2773999869823456},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C117021838","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q124196","display_name":"Semi-arid climate","level":3,"score":0.2705000042915344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C146188434","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q113562","display_name":"Tropical savanna climate","level":3,"score":0.26930001378059387},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780001261","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q391376","display_name":"Amazonian","level":3,"score":0.26010000705718994},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2994067962","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3509184","display_name":"Climate system","level":3,"score":0.25949999690055847}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":4,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1029/2026ef008071","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026ef008071","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026ef008071","pdf_url":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1029/2026EF008071","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764782578","display_name":"Earth s Future","issn_l":"2328-4277","issn":["2328-4277"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-b","jufo-2","ki-jl-1","norway-1","oarl","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315809","host_organization_name":"American Geophysical Union","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315809"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["American Geophysical Union"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Earth's Future","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:archive.ugent.be:01M5WXRN44CXMXTTBNFAMVXGY1","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/1854/LU-01M5WXRN44CXMXTTBNFAMVXGY1","pdf_url":"https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/01M5WXRN44CXMXTTBNFAMVXGY1/file/01M5WXWFFN7JMNNSEXR0P76TE5.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400478","display_name":"Ghent University Academic Bibliography (Ghent University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I32597200","host_organization_name":"Ghent University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I32597200"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"ISSN: 2328-4277","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:library.wur.nl:wurpubs/50b13c62-a5c4-4482-94c8-6c894197a35f","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/the-20232024-el-ni\u00f1o-as-a-preview-of-future-tropical-forest-clima","pdf_url":"https://edepot.wur.nl/725588","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210201231","display_name":"Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling","issn_l":"2663-3027","issn":["2663-3027"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core"],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"ISSN: 2328-4277","raw_type":"Article/Letter to editor"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:1a1e88d94374445f919a6d1740cba2fb","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/1a1e88d94374445f919a6d1740cba2fb","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Earth's Future, Vol 14, Iss 10, Pp n/a-n/a (2026)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1029/2026ef008071","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026ef008071","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026ef008071","pdf_url":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1029/2026EF008071","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764782578","display_name":"Earth s Future","issn_l":"2328-4277","issn":["2328-4277"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-b","jufo-2","ki-jl-1","norway-1","oarl","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315809","host_organization_name":"American Geophysical Union","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315809"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["American Geophysical Union"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Earth's Future","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","display_name":"Climate action","score":1.0},{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/15","display_name":"Life on land","score":0.8125}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G3311378415","display_name":"Will the Congo basin forest hit a tipping point? Estimating the risk of large-scale changes of the Congo Basin forests based on data assimilation in a Land Surface Model","funder_award_id":"1214723N","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321730","funder_display_name":"Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G3944765863","display_name":"African Forest RecOvery and CArbon Dynamics monitoring through Remote Sensing - AFRO-CARDS","funder_award_id":"SR/00/410","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321454","funder_display_name":"Belgian Federal Science Policy Office"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G5450053272","display_name":"Detecting and predicting how droughts increase tropical tree mortality: a pantropical assessment","funder_award_id":"12A2L25N","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321730","funder_display_name":"Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G5780031479","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"B2/223/P1/DAMOCO","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321454","funder_display_name":"Belgian Federal Science Policy Office"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G8435833799","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"SR/00/410/AFROCARDS","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321454","funder_display_name":"Belgian Federal Science Policy Office"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G9000926839","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"2018/01847\u20100","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320336556","funder_display_name":"Centros de Pesquisa, Inova\u00e7\u00e3o e Difus\u00e3o, Funda\u00e7\u00e3o Amaz\u00f4nia Paraense de Amparo \u00e0 Pesquisa"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G9000928210","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"306333/2024\u20104","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320336557","funder_display_name":"Ci\u00eancia sem Fronteiras"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320997","display_name":"Funda\u00e7\u00e3o de Amparo \u00e0 Pesquisa do Estado de S\u00e3o Paulo","ror":"https://ror.org/02ddkpn78"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321454","display_name":"Belgian Federal Science Policy Office","ror":"https://ror.org/01fapfv42"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321730","display_name":"Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek","ror":"https://ror.org/03qtxy027"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320322025","display_name":"Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient\u00edfico e Tecnol\u00f3gico","ror":"https://ror.org/03swz6y49"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320335227","display_name":"Bijzonder Onderzoeksfonds UGent","ror":"https://ror.org/00cv9y106"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320336556","display_name":"Centros de Pesquisa, Inova\u00e7\u00e3o e Difus\u00e3o, Funda\u00e7\u00e3o Amaz\u00f4nia Paraense de Amparo \u00e0 Pesquisa","ror":null},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320336557","display_name":"Ci\u00eancia sem Fronteiras","ror":null}],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7220863342.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7220863342.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":35,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1479862749","https://openalex.org/W1981213426","https://openalex.org/W2011560911","https://openalex.org/W2011863082","https://openalex.org/W2043436896","https://openalex.org/W2048605790","https://openalex.org/W2052321356","https://openalex.org/W2084767784","https://openalex.org/W2106632946","https://openalex.org/W2120220555","https://openalex.org/W2122158162","https://openalex.org/W2410390527","https://openalex.org/W2466134222","https://openalex.org/W2514339160","https://openalex.org/W2558286609","https://openalex.org/W2805988251","https://openalex.org/W2896747284","https://openalex.org/W2896921795","https://openalex.org/W2903815323","https://openalex.org/W2970079308","https://openalex.org/W3037496774","https://openalex.org/W3092098666","https://openalex.org/W3149261366","https://openalex.org/W4210377061","https://openalex.org/W4286278999","https://openalex.org/W4317879285","https://openalex.org/W4406798858","https://openalex.org/W4408490144","https://openalex.org/W4412795045","https://openalex.org/W4413565234","https://openalex.org/W6893548140","https://openalex.org/W6945020821","https://openalex.org/W7134126165","https://openalex.org/W7167483064","https://openalex.org/W7207678029"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3162189348","https://openalex.org/W2976389846","https://openalex.org/W3096381848","https://openalex.org/W3183547518","https://openalex.org/W4417199134","https://openalex.org/W4408441340","https://openalex.org/W4386423730","https://openalex.org/W4398190546","https://openalex.org/W7124141923","https://openalex.org/W7140119126"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"Tropical":[1],"forests":[2,118],"are":[3,17],"an":[4,149],"important":[5],"component":[6],"of":[7,99,116,124,144,155,179],"the":[8,57,68,76,153,170],"global":[9,31,195],"carbon":[10],"cycle.":[11],"Increasingly":[12],"frequent":[13],"droughts":[14,63,126,157],"and":[15,27,30,44,64,84,104,127,191],"heatwaves":[16,65,128],"undermining":[18],"their":[19],"resilience,":[20],"with":[21],"far\u2010reaching":[22],"impacts":[23],"on":[24,28,120,132,148],"local":[25],"livelihoods":[26],"regional":[29],"hydrological":[32],"cycles.":[33],"El":[34,59,70,78,172],"Ni\u00f1o":[35,60,71,79,173],"events,":[36],"recurring":[37],"climate":[38,102,134],"patterns":[39],"that":[40,66,113,169],"lead":[41],"to":[42,160],"dry":[43],"hot":[45],"conditions":[46],"across":[47,89],"multiple":[48],"tropical":[49,137,181],"regions,":[50],"have":[51,175],"always":[52],"influenced":[53],"these":[54],"dynamics,":[55],"but":[56],"2023\u20132024":[58,77,171],"produced":[61],"extreme":[62],"exceeded":[67],"typical":[69],"footprint.":[72],"Here,":[73],"we":[74],"place":[75],"in":[80,163,194],"both":[81],"past":[82],"(2000\u20132024)":[83],"future":[85,133,180],"(2025\u20132100)":[86],"climatic":[87,95],"contexts":[88],"pantropical":[90,117],"forests.":[91,165],"We":[92],"assess":[93],"its":[94],"magnitude":[96],"using":[97],"ensembles":[98],"reanalyses,":[100],"satellite":[101],"products,":[103],"Earth":[105],"System":[106],"Models.":[107],"Climate":[108],"anomalies":[109],"over":[110],"2000\u20132024":[111],"show":[112],"three":[114],"quarters":[115],"experienced,":[119],"average,":[121],"6":[122],"months":[123],"compound":[125],"during":[129],"2023\u20132024.":[130],"Based":[131],"projections,":[135],"most":[136],"forest":[138,182],"regions":[139],"will":[140],"reach":[141],"high":[142],"probabilities":[143],"experiencing":[145],"2023\u20132024\u2010like":[146],"temperatures":[147],"annual":[150],"basis,":[151],"while":[152],"probability":[154],"similar":[156],"is":[158],"expected":[159],"increase":[161],"mostly":[162],"Amazonian":[164],"These":[166],"results":[167],"indicate":[168],"may":[174],"presented":[176],"a":[177],"preview":[178],"conditions,":[183],"which":[184],"can":[185],"only":[186],"be":[187],"prevented":[188],"by":[189],"rapid":[190],"drastic":[192],"reductions":[193],"greenhouse":[196],"gas":[197],"emissions.":[198]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-10-31T12:09:11.096373","created_date":"2026-10-08T00:00:00"}