{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7220749365","doi":null,"title":"Commodity Futures Term Structure and Single-Commodity ETP Returns : Evidence from 2015\u20132025","display_name":"Commodity Futures Term Structure and Single-Commodity ETP Returns : Evidence from 2015\u20132025","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-05-18","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7220749365"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:utupub.fi:11111/61102","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.utupub.fi/handle/11111/61102","pdf_url":"https://www.utupub.fi/bitstreams/5947fc72-23db-4026-93cb-3a41ac63ff9d/download","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402470","display_name":"UTUPub (University of Turku)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I155660961","host_organization_name":"University of Turku","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I155660961"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"fi=Kandidaatintutkielma|en=Bachelor's thesis|"},"volume":null,"type":"dissertation","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":[],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://www.utupub.fi/bitstreams/5947fc72-23db-4026-93cb-3a41ac63ff9d/download","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5157734566","display_name":"Niki Nieminen","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Nieminen, Niki","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5157734566"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10047","display_name":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","score":0.7333999872207642,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10047","display_name":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","score":0.7333999872207642,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11059","display_name":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","score":0.2538999915122986,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10282","display_name":"Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling","score":0.00419999985024333,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/commodity-futures","display_name":"commodity futures","score":0.7870000004768372},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/term-structure-of-interest-rates","display_name":"term structure of interest rates","score":0.7609999775886536},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/contango","display_name":"contango","score":0.8080000281333923},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/covid-19","display_name":"COVID-19 pandemic","score":0.9309999942779541},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/energy-commodities","display_name":"energy commodities","score":0.7450000047683716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/metals","display_name":"metals","score":0.8140000104904175},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/agricultural-products","display_name":"agricultural commodities","score":0.8640000224113464},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/commodity-price-risk","display_name":"commodity price risk","score":0.31299999356269836}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C106306483","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q183984","display_name":"Futures contract","level":2,"score":0.8971999883651733},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.7361999750137329},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.6919999718666077},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779439359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q317088","display_name":"Commodity","level":2,"score":0.5514000058174133},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C6422946","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q857354","display_name":"Panel data","level":2,"score":0.5285000205039978},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C90937171","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q764869","display_name":"Contango","level":3,"score":0.4641999900341034},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C63479239","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7353546","display_name":"Robustness (evolution)","level":3,"score":0.45730000734329224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C198531522","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q485146","display_name":"Sample (material)","level":2,"score":0.4348999857902527},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185429906","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1130160","display_name":"Estimator","level":2,"score":0.43059998750686646},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C106159729","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2294553","display_name":"Financial economics","level":1,"score":0.4020000100135803},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C61797465","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1188986","display_name":"Term (time)","level":2,"score":0.40149998664855957},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777402642","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2557224","display_name":"Explanatory power","level":2,"score":0.39010000228881836},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C178650346","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q201984","display_name":"Covariance","level":2,"score":0.3474999964237213},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C197640229","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2534066","display_name":"Predictability","level":2,"score":0.3271999955177307},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C182365436","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q50701","display_name":"Variable (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.3262999951839447},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2983622608","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2298435","display_name":"Futures market","level":3,"score":0.30660000443458557},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C175992601","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5153179","display_name":"Commodity swap","level":3,"score":0.296999990940094},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C12725497","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q810247","display_name":"Baseline (sea)","level":2,"score":0.28929999470710754},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3020318244","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4812187","display_name":"Large sample","level":2,"score":0.2508000135421753}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:utupub.fi:11111/61102","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.utupub.fi/handle/11111/61102","pdf_url":"https://www.utupub.fi/bitstreams/5947fc72-23db-4026-93cb-3a41ac63ff9d/download","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402470","display_name":"UTUPub (University of Turku)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I155660961","host_organization_name":"University of Turku","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I155660961"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"fi=Kandidaatintutkielma|en=Bachelor's thesis|"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:utupub.fi:11111/61102","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.utupub.fi/handle/11111/61102","pdf_url":"https://www.utupub.fi/bitstreams/5947fc72-23db-4026-93cb-3a41ac63ff9d/download","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402470","display_name":"UTUPub (University of Turku)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I155660961","host_organization_name":"University of Turku","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I155660961"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"fi=Kandidaatintutkielma|en=Bachelor's thesis|"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7220749365.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7220749365.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":29,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1980112438","https://openalex.org/W1997050895","https://openalex.org/W2110048371","https://openalex.org/W2115167433","https://openalex.org/W2118859991","https://openalex.org/W2119623885","https://openalex.org/W2156834658","https://openalex.org/W2602224136","https://openalex.org/W2801359621","https://openalex.org/W2891089654","https://openalex.org/W2903071091","https://openalex.org/W3008273182","https://openalex.org/W3012320055","https://openalex.org/W3017880491","https://openalex.org/W3118474073","https://openalex.org/W3121701901","https://openalex.org/W3122758356","https://openalex.org/W3124837614","https://openalex.org/W3144686987","https://openalex.org/W3181922605","https://openalex.org/W3184178316","https://openalex.org/W4213084256","https://openalex.org/W4246841305","https://openalex.org/W4362573037","https://openalex.org/W4381094783","https://openalex.org/W4384832037","https://openalex.org/W4403263861","https://openalex.org/W4407385640","https://openalex.org/W4409458449"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2190331109","https://openalex.org/W2041969931","https://openalex.org/W2273967960","https://openalex.org/W2046096860","https://openalex.org/W7098308697","https://openalex.org/W2208917527","https://openalex.org/W3175073605","https://openalex.org/W3120849240","https://openalex.org/W2020095600","https://openalex.org/W4391494381"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"This":[0,127],"thesis":[1],"examines":[2],"whether":[3,21],"the":[4,12,26,44,51,113,137,146,152,157,160,168,172,181,185,189,206,217,225,247,250,261],"term":[5,74],"structure":[6,75],"of":[7,14,72,139,249],"commodity":[8,141,148,235,242],"futures":[9,73,81,130,251],"helps":[10],"explain":[11],"returns":[13,84,138],"futuresbased":[15],"single-commodity":[16],"exchange-traded":[17],"products":[18],"(ETPs)":[19],"and":[20,47,79,104,200,272],"this":[22],"relationship":[23,173,220],"changed":[24],"during":[25,167],"COVID-19":[27,169],"period.":[28,170],"The":[29,57,64,108,228],"empirical":[30],"analysis":[31,262],"is":[32,59,68,121,210,221],"based":[33],"on":[34],"weekly":[35],"panel":[36,89],"data":[37,58],"for":[38,135],"16":[39],"non-leveraged":[40],"singlecommodity":[41],"ETPs":[42,142,236],"from":[43,53,61,77],"energy,":[45],"metals,":[46],"agriculture":[48],"sectors":[49],"over":[50],"period":[52],"2015":[54],"to":[55,224,275],"2025.":[56],"obtained":[60],"LSEG":[62],"Workspace.":[63],"main":[65],"explanatory":[66],"variable":[67],"a":[69,118],"commodity-specific":[70],"measure":[71],"constructed":[76],"front-month":[78],"second-month":[80],"prices.":[82],"Product":[83],"are":[85,133],"analyzed":[86],"using":[87,100,264],"fixed-effects":[88],"regressions":[90],"with":[91,123],"product-level":[92],"clustered":[93],"standard":[94],"errors,":[95],"complemented":[96],"by":[97,213,263],"robustness":[98,201],"checks":[99],"alternative":[101,273],"covariance":[102],"estimators":[103],"week":[105],"fixed":[106],"effects.":[107,279],"results":[109],"show":[110,204],"that,":[111],"in":[112,145,188,233,254],"full":[114,190],"sample":[115,191],"baseline":[116,218],"setting,":[117],"steeper":[119],"contango":[120,162],"associated":[122],"lower":[124],"ETP":[125],"returns.":[126],"indicates":[128],"that":[129,159,205,231],"curve":[131],"conditions":[132],"relevant":[134],"explaining":[136],"futures-based":[140,234],"beyond":[143],"movements":[144,244],"underlying":[147],"price":[149,243],"alone.":[150],"However,":[151],"evidence":[153],"does":[154],"not":[155,222,239],"support":[156],"view":[158],"negative":[161,219],"effect":[163],"became":[164,192],"uniformly":[165],"stronger":[166,207],"Instead,":[171],"varied":[174],"across":[175],"pandemic":[176],"subperiods:":[177],"it":[178],"weakened":[179],"after":[180],"initial":[182],"shock,":[183],"while":[184],"recovery-period":[186],"estimate":[187],"positive":[193],"but":[194,245],"remained":[195],"only":[196,240],"weakly":[197],"significant.":[198],"Subsample":[199],"analyses":[202],"further":[203],"time":[208,278],"variation":[209],"driven":[211],"mainly":[212],"energy":[214,226],"products,":[215],"whereas":[216],"limited":[223],"sector.":[227],"findings":[229],"imply":[230],"investors":[232],"should":[237],"consider":[238],"expected":[241],"also":[246],"slope":[248],"curve,":[252],"especially":[253],"energy-related":[255],"products.":[256],"Future":[257],"research":[258],"could":[259],"extend":[260],"larger":[265],"product":[266],"samples,":[267],"more":[268],"product-specific":[269],"roll":[270],"measures,":[271],"approaches":[274],"modeling":[276],"common":[277]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2026-10-07T00:00:00"}