{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7220670908","doi":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.10.04.26364722","title":"Quantifying the current and future risk of West Nile virus and Usutu virus in humans and horses across England and Wales using an R 0 -based suitability metric","display_name":"Quantifying the current and future risk of West Nile virus and Usutu virus in humans and horses across England and Wales using an R 0 -based suitability metric","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-10-06","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7220670908","doi":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.10.04.26364722"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.64898/2026.10.04.26364722","doi":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.10.04.26364722","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.10.04.26364722","pdf_url":"https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2026/10/06/2026.10.04.26364722.full.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S3005729997","display_name":"medRxiv","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core"],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315909"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press"],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"medRxiv","raw_type":"posted-content"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2026/10/06/2026.10.04.26364722.full.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5011483857","display_name":"Joanna N. de Klerk","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0811-1285","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0811-1285"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I67415387","display_name":"Lancaster University","ror":"https://ror.org/04f2nsd36","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67415387"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Joanna N. de Klerk","raw_affiliation_strings":["Lancaster Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4AT, UK"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0811-1285","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Lancaster Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4AT, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I67415387"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5041354490","display_name":"Jack Pilgrim","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2941-1482","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2941-1482"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I146655781","display_name":"University of Liverpool","ror":"https://ror.org/04xs57h96","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I146655781"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jack Pilgrim","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 3BX, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 3BX, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I146655781"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5083872653","display_name":"Matthew Baylis","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0335-187X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0335-187X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I146655781","display_name":"University of Liverpool","ror":"https://ror.org/04xs57h96","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I146655781"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Matthew Baylis","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 3BX, UK"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0335-187X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 3BX, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I146655781"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5044922998","display_name":"Marcus S. C. Blagrove","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7510-167X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7510-167X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I146655781","display_name":"University of Liverpool","ror":"https://ror.org/04xs57h96","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I146655781"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Marcus Blagrove","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 3BX, UK"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7510-167X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 3BX, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I146655781"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5072275636","display_name":"Jolyon M. Medlock","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0008-9822-3697","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0008-9822-3697"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4387153084","display_name":"UK Health Security Agency","ror":"https://ror.org/018h10037","country_code":"GB","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1311074006","https://openalex.org/I4387153084"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jolyon M. Medlock","raw_affiliation_strings":["Medical Entomology & Zoonoses Ecology, Centre for Climate & Health Security, Health Security Agency, Porton Down, Salisbury, Wiltshire, SP4 0JG, United Kingdom"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Medical Entomology & Zoonoses Ecology, Centre for Climate & Health Security, Health Security Agency, Porton Down, Salisbury, Wiltshire, SP4 0JG, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4387153084"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5077190945","display_name":"Alexander G. C. Vaux","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2463-5660","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2463-5660"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4387153084","display_name":"UK Health Security Agency","ror":"https://ror.org/018h10037","country_code":"GB","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1311074006","https://openalex.org/I4387153084"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Alexander G.C. Vaux","raw_affiliation_strings":["Medical Entomology & Zoonoses Ecology, Centre for Climate & Health Security, Health Security Agency, Porton Down, Salisbury, Wiltshire, SP4 0JG, United Kingdom"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2463-5660","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Medical Entomology & Zoonoses Ecology, Centre for Climate & Health Security, Health Security Agency, Porton Down, Salisbury, Wiltshire, SP4 0JG, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4387153084"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5113280902","display_name":"Robert C. Bruce","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I174729306","display_name":"Animal and Plant Health Agency","ror":"https://ror.org/0378g3743","country_code":"GB","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1326803253","https://openalex.org/I174729306","https://openalex.org/I2802373619"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Robert C. Bruce","raw_affiliation_strings":["APHA Weybridge, Woodham Lane, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey, KT15 3NB, United Kingdom"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"APHA Weybridge, Woodham Lane, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey, KT15 3NB, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I174729306"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5029119149","display_name":"Arran J. Folly","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0106-2185","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0106-2185"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I174729306","display_name":"Animal and Plant Health Agency","ror":"https://ror.org/0378g3743","country_code":"GB","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1326803253","https://openalex.org/I174729306","https://openalex.org/I2802373619"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Arran J. Folly","raw_affiliation_strings":["APHA Weybridge, Woodham Lane, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey, KT15 3NB, United Kingdom"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0106-2185","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"APHA Weybridge, Woodham Lane, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey, KT15 3NB, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I174729306"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5061922113","display_name":"Luigi Sedda","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9271-6596","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9271-6596"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I67415387","display_name":"Lancaster University","ror":"https://ror.org/04f2nsd36","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67415387"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Luigi Sedda","raw_affiliation_strings":["Lancaster Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4AT, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Lancaster Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4AT, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I67415387"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5011483857"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I67415387"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10166","display_name":"Mosquito-borne diseases and control","score":0.9955999851226807,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2739","display_name":"Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10166","display_name":"Mosquito-borne diseases and control","score":0.9955999851226807,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2739","display_name":"Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12733","display_name":"Vector-Borne Animal Diseases","score":0.002300000051036477,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2406","display_name":"Virology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/24","display_name":"Immunology and Microbiology"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/1","display_name":"Life Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12047","display_name":"Viral Infections and Vectors","score":0.0008999999845400453,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2725","display_name":"Infectious Diseases"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/west-nile-virus","display_name":"West Nile virus","score":0.953000009059906},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/usutu-virus","display_name":"Usutu virus","score":1.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climate-change-projections","display_name":"climate change projections","score":0.722000002861023},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/culex","display_name":"Culex","score":0.7730000019073486},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/culex-pipiens-pipiens","display_name":"Culex pipiens pipiens","score":0.8669999837875366},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/culex-pipiens-molestus","display_name":"Culex pipiens molestus","score":0.9549999833106995},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/culex-torrentium","display_name":"Culex torrentium","score":0.9929999709129333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/aedes-vexans","display_name":"Aedes vexans","score":0.8349999785423279},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/temperature-dependence","display_name":"temperature dependence","score":0.6600000262260437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/vector-distribution","display_name":"vector distribution","score":0.4449999928474426},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/arbovirus-surveillance","display_name":"arbovirus surveillance","score":0.6520000100135803}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2910026153","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q144273","display_name":"Aedes vexans","level":4,"score":0.7613000273704529},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.6528000235557556},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C92087593","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q427389","display_name":"Vector (molecular biology)","level":4,"score":0.5925999879837036},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779518617","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q276595","display_name":"Culex","level":3,"score":0.544700026512146},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776866189","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q158856","display_name":"West Nile virus","level":3,"score":0.5424000024795532},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C761482","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q118093","display_name":"Transmission (telecommunications)","level":2,"score":0.482699990272522},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776442642","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q27958","display_name":"Culex pipiens","level":3,"score":0.4625999927520752},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.41530001163482666},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18903297","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7150","display_name":"Ecology","level":1,"score":0.4023999869823456},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C110121322","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q865811","display_name":"Distribution (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.39410001039505005},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42972112","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q170201","display_name":"Veterinary medicine","level":1,"score":0.3619000017642975},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780568436","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1165479","display_name":"Flavivirus","level":3,"score":0.358599990606308},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780688631","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q310911","display_name":"Aedes","level":3,"score":0.34630000591278076},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77077793","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q336019","display_name":"Abundance (ecology)","level":2,"score":0.3384000062942505},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2987857752","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12147","display_name":"Human health","level":2,"score":0.303600013256073},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132651083","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Climate change","level":2,"score":0.2892000079154968},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778494684","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3511357","display_name":"Seroprevalence","level":4,"score":0.27900001406669617},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C116675565","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3241045","display_name":"Outbreak","level":2,"score":0.2775999903678894},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C122325731","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3738459","display_name":"Relative species abundance","level":3,"score":0.274399995803833},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777042776","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4583103","display_name":"Preparedness","level":2,"score":0.27000001072883606},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112964050","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q103459","display_name":"Livestock","level":2,"score":0.2623000144958496},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2909982947","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5282130","display_name":"Disease reservoir","level":2,"score":0.2574999928474426},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C12174686","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1058438","display_name":"Risk assessment","level":2,"score":0.2515000104904175}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.64898/2026.10.04.26364722","doi":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.10.04.26364722","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.10.04.26364722","pdf_url":"https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2026/10/06/2026.10.04.26364722.full.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S3005729997","display_name":"medRxiv","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core"],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315909"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press"],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"medRxiv","raw_type":"posted-content"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.64898/2026.10.04.26364722","doi":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.10.04.26364722","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.10.04.26364722","pdf_url":"https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2026/10/06/2026.10.04.26364722.full.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S3005729997","display_name":"medRxiv","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core"],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315909"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press"],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"medRxiv","raw_type":"posted-content"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Good health and well-being","score":0.6240000128746033,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G3926218371","display_name":"RCG Culex distribution, vector competence and threat of transmission of arboviruses to humans and animals in the UK","funder_award_id":"BB/X018172/1","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334629","funder_display_name":"Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G6623952720","display_name":"Vector-borne RADAR (Real-time Arbovirus Detection And Response)","funder_award_id":"BB/X017990/1","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334629","funder_display_name":"Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G8597349982","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"BB/X018172/1","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320314731","funder_display_name":"UK Research and Innovation"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320314731","display_name":"UK Research and Innovation","ror":"https://ror.org/001aqnf71"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320319995","display_name":"Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government","ror":"https://ror.org/00tnppw48"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320638","display_name":"Horserace Betting Levy Board","ror":"https://ror.org/02z2a9w02"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334629","display_name":"Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council","ror":"https://ror.org/00cwqg982"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7220670908.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7220670908.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":6,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W2113507178","https://openalex.org/W2123090765","https://openalex.org/W4393451382","https://openalex.org/W6888762230","https://openalex.org/W6945182815","https://openalex.org/W7202248687"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4408280056","https://openalex.org/W7133643487","https://openalex.org/W2897898131","https://openalex.org/W7162001298","https://openalex.org/W7155166907","https://openalex.org/W4412831155","https://openalex.org/W7165535116","https://openalex.org/W3195316813","https://openalex.org/W4321054331","https://openalex.org/W3217529489"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"In":[1],"England":[2,110,353],"and":[3,12,63,71,89,107,111,136,141,148,151,155,181,246,260,290,292,303,310,347,354,356,366,380],"Wales,":[4,355],"Usutu":[5],"virus":[6,18],"(USUV)":[7],"was":[8,238,279],"detected":[9,25],"in":[10,26,30,129,170,219,222,282,286,308],"2020":[11],"is":[13,52],"now":[14],"established.":[15],"West":[16],"Nile":[17],"(WNV)":[19],"has":[20],"so":[21],"far":[22],"only":[23],"been":[24],"a":[27,53,82,255,340],"single":[28],"location,":[29],"two":[31,118],"Aedes":[32],"vexans":[33],"mosquito":[34,167,261,302],"pools":[35],"sampled":[36],"during":[37],"2023":[38,309],"surveillance.":[39],"Given":[40],"the":[41,45,78,117,130,133,162,228,234,241,272,287,325,374],"growing":[42,341],"threat":[43],"to":[44,55,59,61,101,189,215,269,317,339],"UK":[46],"from":[47],"Culex":[48,166,175,178,182],"-borne":[49],"viruses":[50,68,119,186],"there":[51,278],"need":[54],"undertake":[56],"risk":[57,125,194,251,281,394],"assessments":[58],"contribute":[60],"preparedness":[62],"surveillance":[64,364],"strategy":[65],"for":[66,105,271,324],"both":[67],"across":[69,109,152,352],"human":[70,235,259,264],"animal":[72],"health":[73,368],"sectors.":[74],"Here,":[75],"we":[76],"present":[77],"first":[79],"application":[80],"of":[81,165,257,274,295,300,343,376],"mechanistic":[83],"R\u2080-based":[84],"model,":[85],"incorporating":[86,377],"temperature":[87],"dependence":[88],"combining":[90],"data":[91],"on":[92,391],"vector":[93,381],"species":[94],"distribution":[95,164,299],"with":[96,124,161,197,244,314],"projected":[97,188],"future":[98,384],"climate":[99,115,378],"scenarios,":[100],"assess":[102],"transmission":[103,192,333],"suitability":[104,193,334],"WNV":[106,211],"USUV":[108,305,320],"Wales.":[112],"Under":[113],"current":[114],"conditions,":[116],"showed":[120],"comparable":[121],"spatial":[122,327,332],"patterns,":[123],"concentrated":[126],"most":[127,217,350],"heavily":[128],"southeast":[131,220,293],"along":[132],"Thames":[134],"estuary":[135],"extending":[137],"into":[138,383],"Kent,":[139],"Essex":[140],"Surrey,":[142],"as":[143,145,240],"well":[144],"around":[146,224,360],"Cambridgeshire":[147],"adjacent":[149],"counties,":[150],"Yorkshire,":[153],"Nottinghamshire":[154],"Lincolnshire.":[156],"This":[157],"pattern":[158],"broadly":[159,312],"corresponded":[160],"cumulative":[163],"abundance":[168],"established":[169],"our":[171],"earlier":[172],"work":[173,337],"(":[174],"pipiens":[176,179],"pipiens,":[177],"molestus":[180],"torrentium":[183],").":[184],"Both":[185],"were":[187,213,267],"show":[190],"increasing":[191],"over":[195,275,396],"time,":[196],"substantially":[198],"steeper":[199],"increases":[200],"under":[201],"Representative":[202],"Common":[203],"Pathway":[204],"(RCP)":[205],"8.5":[206],"then":[207],"RCP":[208],"4.5.":[209],"Equine":[210],"cases":[212,306],"predicted":[214,316],"be":[216],"likely":[218,351,389],"England,":[221],"particular":[223],"Newmarket,":[225],"driven":[226,253],"by":[227,254],"region\u2019s":[229],"dense":[230],"horse":[231],"population.":[232],"Among":[233],"population,":[236],"London":[237],"identified":[239],"highest-risk":[242],"area,":[243],"Liverpool":[245],"Manchester":[247],"also":[248,372],"showing":[249],"elevated":[250,280],"levels,":[252],"combination":[256],"high":[258],"distributions.":[262],"When":[263],"population":[265],"distributions":[266],"age-adjusted":[268],"account":[270],"proportion":[273],"60":[276],"years-olds,":[277],"coastal":[283],"regions,":[284],"particularly":[285],"east":[288],"(Norfolk":[289],"Suffolk)":[291],"(Kent)":[294],"England.":[296],"The":[297,370],"geographic":[298],"positive":[301],"bird":[304],"recorded":[307],"2024":[311],"overlapped":[313],"areas":[315],"have":[318],"higher":[319],"suitability,":[321],"providing":[322],"validation":[323],"model\u2019s":[326],"outputs.":[328],"By":[329],"characterising":[330],"relative":[331],"risk,":[335],"this":[336],"adds":[338],"understanding":[342],"where":[344],"arbovirus":[345,393],"emergence":[346],"spread":[348],"are":[349],"can":[357],"support":[358],"decisions":[359],"resource":[361],"allocation,":[362],"targeted":[363],"efforts,":[365],"public":[367],"readiness.":[369],"results":[371],"underscore":[373],"importance":[375],"change":[379],"ecology":[382],"modelling":[385],"work,":[386],"given":[387],"their":[388],"influence":[390],"how":[392],"evolves":[395],"time.":[397]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-08T12:12:28.789561","created_date":"2026-10-07T00:00:00"}