{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7214788937","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2609.31804","title":"Electric Potential Patterns Forecasting in the Southern Hemisphere with Deep Learning Techniques","display_name":"Electric Potential Patterns Forecasting in the Southern Hemisphere with Deep Learning Techniques","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-09-25","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7214788937","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2609.31804"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2609.31804","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.31804","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.31804","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["arxiv","datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.31804","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5094119036","display_name":"Francesco P. Ramunno","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0000-0500-7218","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0000-0500-7218"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I114457229","display_name":"University of Geneva","ror":"https://ror.org/01swzsf04","country_code":"CH","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I114457229"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2972652528","display_name":"FHNW University of Applied Sciences and Arts Northwestern Switzerland","ror":"https://ror.org/04mq2g308","country_code":"CH","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2972652528"]}],"countries":["CH"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ramunno, Francesco Pio","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Computer Science , University of Geneva , 1211 Geneva , Switzerland","University of Applied Sciences and Arts Nortwestern Switzerland"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Computer Science , University of Geneva , 1211 Geneva , Switzerland","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I114457229"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Applied Sciences and Arts Nortwestern Switzerland","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2972652528"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5098885582","display_name":"Simone Mestici","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0000-2442-8878","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0000-2442-8878"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I861853513","display_name":"Sapienza University of Rome","ror":"https://ror.org/02be6w209","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I861853513"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mestici, Simone","raw_affiliation_strings":["Universit\u00e1 Roma \"La Sapienza\""],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Universit\u00e1 Roma \"La Sapienza\"","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I861853513"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5012433558","display_name":"Igino Coco","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4070-6828","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4070-6828"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I29078338","display_name":"Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia","ror":"https://ror.org/00qps9a02","country_code":"IT","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I29078338"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Coco, Igino","raw_affiliation_strings":["Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia , Via di Vigna Murata , 605 , Rome , Italy"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia , Via di Vigna Murata , 605 , Rome , Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I29078338"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5153408902","display_name":"Maria Walach","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I67415387","display_name":"Lancaster University","ror":"https://ror.org/04f2nsd36","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67415387"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Walach, Maria","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Physics and Astronomy , Lancaster University , Lancaster , UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Physics and Astronomy , Lancaster University , Lancaster , UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I67415387"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5054578450","display_name":"S. Massetti","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7767-1334","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7767-1334"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210100742","display_name":"Institute for Space Astrophysics and Planetology","ror":"https://ror.org/0141xw169","country_code":"IT","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210100742","https://openalex.org/I875825670"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I875825670","display_name":"National Institute for Astrophysics","ror":"https://ror.org/02gh4kt33","country_code":"IT","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I875825670"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Massetti, Stefano","raw_affiliation_strings":["Italian National Institute of Astrophysics -Institute for Space Astrophysics and Planetology , Via del Fosso del Cavaliere , 100 , Rome , Italy"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Italian National Institute of Astrophysics -Institute for Space Astrophysics and Planetology , Via del Fosso del Cavaliere , 100 , Rome , Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210100742","https://openalex.org/I875825670"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5072923226","display_name":"Maria Federica Marcucci","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5002-6060","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5002-6060"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210100742","display_name":"Institute for Space Astrophysics and Planetology","ror":"https://ror.org/0141xw169","country_code":"IT","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210100742","https://openalex.org/I875825670"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I875825670","display_name":"National Institute for Astrophysics","ror":"https://ror.org/02gh4kt33","country_code":"IT","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I875825670"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Marcucci, Maria Federica","raw_affiliation_strings":["Italian National Institute of Astrophysics -Institute for Space Astrophysics and Planetology , Via del Fosso del Cavaliere , 100 , Rome , Italy"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Italian National Institute of Astrophysics -Institute for Space Astrophysics and Planetology , Via del Fosso del Cavaliere , 100 , Rome , Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210100742","https://openalex.org/I875825670"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5024352463","display_name":"Brandon Panos","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7096-7941","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7096-7941"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2972652528","display_name":"FHNW University of Applied Sciences and Arts Northwestern Switzerland","ror":"https://ror.org/04mq2g308","country_code":"CH","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2972652528"]}],"countries":["CH"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Panos, Brandon","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Applied Sciences and Arts Nortwestern Switzerland"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Applied Sciences and Arts Nortwestern Switzerland","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2972652528"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5085103737","display_name":"Andre Csillaghy","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5177-6875","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5177-6875"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2972652528","display_name":"FHNW University of Applied Sciences and Arts Northwestern Switzerland","ror":"https://ror.org/04mq2g308","country_code":"CH","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2972652528"]}],"countries":["CH"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Csillaghy, Andr\u00e9","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Applied Sciences and Arts Nortwestern Switzerland"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Applied Sciences and Arts Nortwestern Switzerland","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2972652528"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":3,"institutions_distinct_count":7,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10159","display_name":"Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics","score":0.9980000257492065,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1912","display_name":"Space and Planetary Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10159","display_name":"Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics","score":0.9980000257492065,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1912","display_name":"Space and Planetary Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10251","display_name":"Solar and Space Plasma Dynamics","score":0.0005000000237487257,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3103","display_name":"Astronomy and Astrophysics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/31","display_name":"Physics and Astronomy"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11206","display_name":"Model Reduction and Neural Networks","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3109","display_name":"Statistical and Nonlinear Physics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/31","display_name":"Physics and Astronomy"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/space-weather-forecasting","display_name":"space weather forecasting","score":0.9319999814033508},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ionospheric-electric-potential","display_name":"ionospheric electric potential","score":0.8479999899864197},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ionospheric-convection","display_name":"ionospheric convection","score":0.8859999775886536},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/solar-wind","display_name":"solar wind","score":0.6200000047683716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/interplanetary-magnetic-field","display_name":"interplanetary magnetic field","score":0.8309999704360962},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/diffusion-models","display_name":"diffusion models","score":0.8410000205039978},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/u-net","display_name":"U-Net","score":0.8679999709129333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/superdarn-radar","display_name":"SuperDARN radar","score":0.8539999723434448},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/southern-hemisphere-ionosphere","display_name":"Southern Hemisphere ionosphere","score":0.6620000004768372},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/long-term-forecasting","display_name":"long-term forecasting","score":0.8349999785423279},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/out-of-distribution-prediction","display_name":"out-of-distribution prediction","score":0.6100000143051147},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/geomagnetic-storms","display_name":"geomagnetic storms","score":0.5699999928474426}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.5892000198364258},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151325931","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q584093","display_name":"Space weather","level":2,"score":0.5611000061035156},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.49129998683929443},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.4438999891281128},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C108583219","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q197536","display_name":"Deep learning","level":2,"score":0.43959999084472656},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C194462397","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q834235","display_name":"Interplanetary spaceflight","level":4,"score":0.42750000953674316},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C122282355","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7246855","display_name":"Probabilistic forecasting","level":3,"score":0.41920000314712524},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C554190296","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q47528","display_name":"Radar","level":2,"score":0.40139999985694885},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C24552861","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2670177","display_name":"Data assimilation","level":2,"score":0.38679999113082886},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.36719998717308044},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C57691317","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1289248","display_name":"Scalar (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.36230000853538513},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777252438","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q41228","display_name":"Southern Hemisphere","level":2,"score":0.35010001063346863},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C19269812","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q26540","display_name":"Satellite","level":2,"score":0.3345000147819519},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778835443","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39061","display_name":"Northern Hemisphere","level":2,"score":0.3215999901294708},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779662365","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5416694","display_name":"Event (particle physics)","level":2,"score":0.3208000063896179},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C22041718","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q638949","display_name":"Geolocation","level":2,"score":0.31869998574256897},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C108411613","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q79833","display_name":"Solar wind","level":3,"score":0.3158999979496002},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C170061395","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5468164","display_name":"Forecast skill","level":2,"score":0.31520000100135803},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159877910","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2202883","display_name":"Autoregressive model","level":2,"score":0.3077999949455261},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C8058405","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q46255","display_name":"Geophysics","level":1,"score":0.30550000071525574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119898033","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3433888","display_name":"Ensemble forecasting","level":2,"score":0.30160000920295715},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127313418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1069","display_name":"Geology","level":0,"score":0.2996000051498413},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49204034","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52139","display_name":"Climatology","level":1,"score":0.29600000381469727},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C147947694","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q837552","display_name":"Numerical weather prediction","level":2,"score":0.28619998693466187},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.2816999852657318},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C102988692","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q619254","display_name":"Interplanetary magnetic field","level":4,"score":0.2815999984741211},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C133199616","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25386885","display_name":"Empirical modelling","level":2,"score":0.2572000026702881},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C92237259","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q863343","display_name":"Weather radar","level":3,"score":0.25529998540878296},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.2542000114917755},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C52421305","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1151499","display_name":"Particle filter","level":3,"score":0.2531999945640564}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2609.31804","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.31804","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.31804","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2609.31804","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2609.31804","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2609.31804","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2609.31804","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.31804","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.31804","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","display_name":"Climate action","score":0.5351999998092651}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320314731","display_name":"UK Research and Innovation","ror":"https://ror.org/001aqnf71"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334632","display_name":"Science and Technology Facilities Council","ror":"https://ror.org/057g20z61"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337144","display_name":"National Supercomputing Center, Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information","ror":"https://ror.org/00cs28a13"}],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7214788937.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7214788937.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":12,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1997878204","https://openalex.org/W2057622447","https://openalex.org/W2078653380","https://openalex.org/W2091539461","https://openalex.org/W2112615418","https://openalex.org/W2131996381","https://openalex.org/W2804318674","https://openalex.org/W3047513651","https://openalex.org/W4385197801","https://openalex.org/W4400504134","https://openalex.org/W4404328641","https://openalex.org/W7168140983"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7168140983","https://openalex.org/W4402252208","https://openalex.org/W4407636068","https://openalex.org/W4322732954","https://openalex.org/W7128738935","https://openalex.org/W4406450414","https://openalex.org/W7106343920","https://openalex.org/W4323657374","https://openalex.org/W3013592816","https://openalex.org/W4407016104"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Space":[0],"weather":[1,232],"disturbances":[2],"driven":[3],"by":[4],"the":[5,23,43,68,99,139,160,174,178,186,198,207,212,224],"solar":[6,91],"wind":[7,92],"can":[8],"degrade":[9],"satellite":[10],"navigation,":[11],"disrupt":[12],"radio":[13],"communications,":[14],"and":[15,36,78,93,107,154,180,194,203,211],"threaten":[16],"power":[17],"infrastructure,":[18],"making":[19],"accurate":[20],"forecasting":[21],"of":[22,72,129,149,177],"high-latitude":[24,116],"ionosphere's":[25,44],"response":[26,47],"a":[27,84,108,142],"critical":[28],"operational":[29],"need.":[30],"Existing":[31],"approaches,":[32],"empirical":[33],"climatological":[34],"models":[35,140,222],"physics-based":[37],"magnetohydrodynamic":[38],"simulations,":[39],"either":[40],"smooth":[41],"out":[42],"time-dependent,":[45],"non-linear":[46],"or":[48],"are":[49,223],"too":[50],"computationally":[51],"expensive":[52],"for":[53,228],"real-time":[54],"use,":[55],"while":[56,197],"prior":[57],"machine":[58],"learning":[59,82],"efforts":[60],"have":[61],"mostly":[62],"targeted":[63],"scalar":[64],"indices":[65],"rather":[66],"than":[67],"full":[69],"spatial":[70],"structure":[71],"ionospheric":[73],"convection.":[74],"Here":[75],"we":[76,137],"train":[77],"compare":[79],"three":[80],"deep":[81],"architectures,":[83],"probabilistic":[85,181],"diffusion":[86,105,199],"model":[87,188],"conditioned":[88],"on":[89,159],"multi-variate":[90],"interplanetary":[94],"magnetic":[95],"field":[96],"measurements":[97],"at":[98],"L1":[100,135],"Lagrange":[101],"point,":[102],"an":[103,145,155],"unconditioned":[104],"ablation,":[106],"deterministic":[109,179,187],"U-Net":[110],"baseline,":[111],"to":[112,151],"forecast":[113,208],"Southern":[114],"Hemisphere":[115],"electric":[117],"potential":[118],"maps":[119],"derived":[120],"from":[121],"SuperDARN":[122,130],"radar":[123],"observations.":[124],"Using":[125],"five":[126],"years":[127],"(2020--2025)":[128],"data":[131],"synchronised":[132],"with":[133],"DSCOVR":[134],"measurements,":[136],"evaluate":[138],"under":[141],"single-pass":[143],"regime,":[144],"extended":[146],"autoregressive":[147],"rollout":[148],"up":[150],"350":[152],"frames,":[153],"out-of-distribution":[156],"case":[157],"study":[158],"intense":[161],"March":[162],"2015":[163],"St.\\":[164],"Patrick's":[165],"Day":[166],"storm,":[167],"unseen":[168],"during":[169],"training.":[170],"We":[171],"find":[172],"that":[173,218],"relative":[175],"advantage":[176,201],"approaches":[182],"is":[183,189],"not":[184],"fixed:":[185],"competitive":[190],"over":[191],"short":[192],"horizons":[193],"calm":[195],"conditions,":[196],"model's":[200],"grows":[202],"eventually":[204],"dominates":[205],"as":[206],"horizon":[209],"lengthens":[210],"event":[213],"becomes":[214],"more":[215,225],"dynamic,":[216],"evidence":[217],"probabilistic,":[219],"sample-based":[220],"generative":[221],"promising":[226],"direction":[227],"operational,":[229],"long-horizon":[230],"space":[231],"forecasting.":[233]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2026-09-30T00:00:00"}