{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7214707359","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2609.33881","title":"Understanding Sectoral Responses to Tariff Uncertainty via a High-Dimensional Mediation Analysis","display_name":"Understanding Sectoral Responses to Tariff Uncertainty via a High-Dimensional Mediation Analysis","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-09-27","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7214707359","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2609.33881"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2609.33881","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.33881","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.33881","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["arxiv","datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.33881","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5153498700","display_name":"Qilan Hong","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Hong, Qilan","raw_affiliation_strings":["Qilan Hong is","senior high school student at Polytechnic School , Pasadena , CA 91106 ,"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Qilan Hong is","institution_ids":[]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"senior high school student at Polytechnic School , Pasadena , CA 91106 ,","institution_ids":[]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5153455007","display_name":"Runze Li","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I130769515","display_name":"Pennsylvania State University","ror":"https://ror.org/04p491231","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I130769515"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Li, Runze","raw_affiliation_strings":["The Pennsylvania State University , University Park , PA 16802 ","senior high school student at Polytechnic School , Pasadena , CA 91106 ,"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"The Pennsylvania State University , University Park , PA 16802 ","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I130769515"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"senior high school student at Polytechnic School , Pasadena , CA 91106 ,","institution_ids":[]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10047","display_name":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","score":0.9574999809265137,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10047","display_name":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","score":0.9574999809265137,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11059","display_name":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","score":0.02889999933540821,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11711","display_name":"COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts","score":0.005499999970197678,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/tariff-uncertainty","display_name":"tariff uncertainty","score":0.5839999914169312},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/s-p-500","display_name":"S&P 500","score":0.7450000047683716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/direct-and-indirect-effects","display_name":"direct and indirect effects","score":0.6589999794960022},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/technology-industry","display_name":"technology industry","score":0.7369999885559082},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/firm-financial-characteristics","display_name":"firm financial characteristics","score":0.9700000286102295}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.5785999894142151},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.5565000176429749},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2986840890","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q837171","display_name":"Financial sector","level":2,"score":0.5234000086784363},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780299701","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q475000","display_name":"Stock market","level":3,"score":0.5206000208854675},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2985347565","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2151621","display_name":"Energy sector","level":2,"score":0.5048999786376953},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776060655","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52389","display_name":"Tariff","level":2,"score":0.4848000109195709},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204036174","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q909380","display_name":"Stock (firearms)","level":2,"score":0.4796000123023987},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154193497","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3958441","display_name":"Economic sector","level":2,"score":0.42080000042915344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C179420905","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q223871","display_name":"Mediation","level":2,"score":0.3856000006198883},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2988460067","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q55639","display_name":"Manufacturing sector","level":2,"score":0.3781999945640564},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C152877465","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q208042","display_name":"Regression analysis","level":2,"score":0.3776000142097473},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C136710728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1661827","display_name":"Sector model","level":3,"score":0.36649999022483826},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C169685871","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q55639","display_name":"Secondary sector of the economy","level":2,"score":0.34700000286102295},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C48921125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q10861030","display_name":"Linear regression","level":2,"score":0.3122999966144562},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C556758197","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q580018","display_name":"Monetary economics","level":1,"score":0.30709999799728394},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C120936955","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2155640","display_name":"Empirical research","level":2,"score":0.30239999294281006},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166052673","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q83021","display_name":"Empirical evidence","level":2,"score":0.2867000102996826},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C129824826","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2630107","display_name":"Granger causality","level":2,"score":0.2854999899864197},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C147859227","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q294217","display_name":"Public sector","level":2,"score":0.2842000126838684},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C99656134","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2912993","display_name":"Ordinary least squares","level":2,"score":0.2825999855995178},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162144332","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1665305","display_name":"Instrumental variable","level":2,"score":0.28139999508857727},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.2646999955177307},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C27574286","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q320723","display_name":"Variables","level":2,"score":0.2529999911785126},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43246008","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q55638","display_name":"Tertiary sector of the economy","level":2,"score":0.25099998712539673}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2609.33881","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.33881","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.33881","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2609.33881","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2609.33881","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2609.33881","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2609.33881","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.33881","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.33881","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7214707359.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7214707359.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4416112558","https://openalex.org/W4410354370","https://openalex.org/W4410116358","https://openalex.org/W4411896300","https://openalex.org/W7163611101","https://openalex.org/W4410116924","https://openalex.org/W4415071790","https://openalex.org/W7081702690","https://openalex.org/W7202216475","https://openalex.org/W7213769408"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"This":[0],"paper":[1],"conducts":[2],"an":[3],"empirical":[4],"mediation":[5,67],"analysis":[6],"to":[7,14,50,69,81,140,215],"examine":[8,141],"how":[9],"U.S.":[10],"stock-market":[11],"sectors":[12,221],"responded":[13],"the":[15,71,83,90,96,99,104,179,185,191,204,226],"2025":[16],"tariff-policy":[17,60,172],"episode.":[18],"Using":[19],"S&P":[20],"500":[21],"stock":[22,41],"data":[23],"along":[24],"with":[25,38,249],"hundreds":[26],"of":[27,56,113,130],"firm-level":[28],"financial":[29,52],"variables,":[30],"we":[31,62,116],"study":[32],"whether":[33,44,142],"sector":[34,73,85,92,101,106,132,181,186],"membership":[35],"was":[36,184],"associated":[37,248],"differences":[39,46],"in":[40,178,213],"returns":[42],"and":[43,87,103,135,144,194,218,229,242],"these":[45],"were":[47,222],"statistically":[48],"related":[49],"firm":[51],"characteristics.":[53],"For":[54],"each":[55],"five":[57,169],"economically":[58,170],"distinct":[59,171],"windows,":[61],"use":[63,76,117],"high-dimensional":[64],"linear":[65,78],"causal":[66],"models":[68],"estimate":[70,82,89],"direct":[72,105,145,180],"effects.":[74,107,182],"We":[75],"a":[77,110,118],"regression":[79],"model":[80],"total":[84,100],"effects,":[86],"then":[88],"indrect":[91],"effects":[93,102,146,166],"by":[94],"using":[95],"difference":[97],"between":[98],"To":[108],"accommodate":[109],"large":[111],"number":[112],"candidate":[114],"mediators,":[115],"partially":[119],"penalized":[120],"least-squares":[121],"procedure":[122],"that":[123,155,212,237],"regularizes":[124],"financial-variable":[125],"coefficients":[126,129],"while":[127],"unpenalizes":[128],"all":[131],"indicators.":[133],"Wald":[134],"F-type":[136],"tests":[137],"are":[138,147,177],"used":[139],"indirect":[143],"significant":[148],"or":[149],"not,":[150],"respectively.":[151],"The":[152,174,209,232],"results":[153,210],"show":[154],"tariff":[156],"news":[157],"did":[158],"not":[159],"produce":[160],"one":[161],"uniform":[162],"market":[163],"response.":[164],"Sector":[165],"vary":[167],"across":[168],"windows.":[173],"clearest":[175],"findings":[176],"Technology":[183],"most":[187,201],"negatively":[188],"affected":[189,224],"during":[190,203,225],"initial":[192,227],"decline":[193,228],"escalation":[195,230],"collapse,":[196],"but":[197],"it":[198],"also":[199],"rebounded":[200],"strongly":[202],"April":[205],"9":[206],"relief":[207],"rally.":[208],"indicate":[211],"addition":[214],"Technology,":[216],"Energy":[217],"other":[219],"trade-exposed":[220],"particularly":[223],"phases.":[231],"selected":[233],"mediators":[234],"provide":[235],"evidence":[236],"growth,":[238],"investment,":[239],"liquidity,":[240],"profitability,":[241],"cash-flow":[243],"characteristics":[244],"helped":[245],"characterize":[246],"firms":[247],"sector-level":[250],"return":[251],"differences.":[252]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-10-28T10:33:24.094632","created_date":"2026-09-30T00:00:00"}