{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7214674902","doi":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.25.754440","title":"Age-specific Jensen contrasts reveal how ontogenetic responses to thermal variability shape lifetime performance in Daphnia magna","display_name":"Age-specific Jensen contrasts reveal how ontogenetic responses to thermal variability shape lifetime performance in Daphnia magna","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-09-28","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7214674902","doi":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.25.754440"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.64898/2026.09.25.754440","doi":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.25.754440","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.25.754440","pdf_url":"https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2026/09/28/2026.09.25.754440.full.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402567","display_name":"bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2750212522","host_organization_name":"Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2750212522"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"bioRxiv","raw_type":"posted-content"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2026/09/28/2026.09.25.754440.full.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5053712666","display_name":"Hideyasu Shimadzu","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0919-8829","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0919-8829"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I64189623","display_name":"Kitasato University","ror":"https://ror.org/00f2txz25","country_code":"JP","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I64189623"]}],"countries":["JP"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Hideyasu Shimadzu","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Data Science, Kitasato University, Kanagawa, Japan"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0919-8829","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Data Science, Kitasato University, Kanagawa, Japan","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I64189623"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5116752189","display_name":"Ilena Day-Dell\u2019Olio","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I16835326","display_name":"University of St Andrews","ror":"https://ror.org/02wn5qz54","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I16835326"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ilena Day-Dell\u2019Olio","raw_affiliation_strings":["Centre for Biological Diversity, School of Biology, University of St Andrews, Fife, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Centre for Biological Diversity, School of Biology, University of St Andrews, Fife, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I16835326"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5072357734","display_name":"Miguel Barbosa","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0327-9580","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0327-9580"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I16835326","display_name":"University of St Andrews","ror":"https://ror.org/02wn5qz54","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I16835326"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I60858718","display_name":"University of Aveiro","ror":"https://ror.org/00nt41z93","country_code":"PT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I60858718"]}],"countries":["GB","PT"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Miguel Barbosa","raw_affiliation_strings":["Centre for Biological Diversity, School of Biology, University of St Andrews, Fife, UK","Department of Biology, University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0327-9580","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Centre for Biological Diversity, School of Biology, University of St Andrews, Fife, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I16835326"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Biology, University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I60858718"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":3,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5072357734"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I16835326","https://openalex.org/I60858718"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11056","display_name":"Physiological and biochemical adaptations","score":0.9980000257492065,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2303","display_name":"Ecology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11056","display_name":"Physiological and biochemical adaptations","score":0.9980000257492065,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2303","display_name":"Ecology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10174","display_name":"Animal Behavior and Reproduction","score":0.0010000000474974513,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1105","display_name":"Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/11","display_name":"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/1","display_name":"Life Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11004","display_name":"Crustacean biology and ecology","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2303","display_name":"Ecology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/daphnia-magna","display_name":"Daphnia magna","score":0.9390000104904175},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/temperature-variability","display_name":"temperature variability","score":0.7749999761581421},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ontogeny","display_name":"ontogeny","score":0.8650000095367432},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/thermal-performance-curves","display_name":"thermal performance curves","score":0.9710000157356262},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/energy-allocation","display_name":"energy allocation","score":0.7400000095367432},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/life-history","display_name":"life history","score":0.5770000219345093},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/growth","display_name":"growth","score":0.5490000247955322},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/reproduction","display_name":"reproduction","score":0.996999979019165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/survival","display_name":"survival","score":0.9929999709129333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/lifetime-reproduction","display_name":"lifetime reproduction","score":0.6079999804496765},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/allometric-equations","display_name":"allometric equations","score":0.6579999923706055}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.625},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C38116347","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3003222","display_name":"Indeterminate growth","level":4,"score":0.5942000150680542},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C59659247","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11990","display_name":"Reproduction","level":2,"score":0.5931000113487244},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777027219","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1284190","display_name":"Constant (computer programming)","level":2,"score":0.5781999826431274},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780158794","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q672531","display_name":"Daphnia magna","level":3,"score":0.5759999752044678},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C66698415","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1139127","display_name":"Life history theory","level":3,"score":0.44209998846054077},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C30555475","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5532608","display_name":"Generation time","level":3,"score":0.4092000126838684},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2992101111","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6545098","display_name":"Life history","level":2,"score":0.3797000050544739},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C13376991","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q587698","display_name":"Ectotherm","level":2,"score":0.35440000891685486},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.3497999906539917},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153026981","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q519888","display_name":"Allometry","level":2,"score":0.3386000096797943},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C37291498","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q193603","display_name":"Ontogeny","level":2,"score":0.33239999413490295},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18903297","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7150","display_name":"Ecology","level":1,"score":0.30889999866485596},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776502983","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q690182","display_name":"Contrast (vision)","level":2,"score":0.2924000024795532},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C47019633","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5259332","display_name":"Density dependence","level":3,"score":0.2867000102996826},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C182365436","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q50701","display_name":"Variable (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.28119999170303345},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C8171440","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q903414","display_name":"Steady state (chemistry)","level":2,"score":0.27730000019073486},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139676723","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1193832","display_name":"Sign (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.27410000562667847},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776759703","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1066907","display_name":"Longevity","level":2,"score":0.27390000224113464},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C83546350","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1139051","display_name":"Regression","level":2,"score":0.27239999175071716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778312390","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4139973","display_name":"Growth rate","level":2,"score":0.2660999894142151},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.262800008058548},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780187675","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q269354","display_name":"Daphnia","level":3,"score":0.2614000141620636},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779466056","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q107630651","display_name":"Time point","level":2,"score":0.2612000107765198},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C48921125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q10861030","display_name":"Linear regression","level":2,"score":0.2596000134944916}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.64898/2026.09.25.754440","doi":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.25.754440","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.25.754440","pdf_url":"https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2026/09/28/2026.09.25.754440.full.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402567","display_name":"bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2750212522","host_organization_name":"Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2750212522"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"bioRxiv","raw_type":"posted-content"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.64898/2026.09.25.754440","doi":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.25.754440","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.25.754440","pdf_url":"https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2026/09/28/2026.09.25.754440.full.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402567","display_name":"bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2750212522","host_organization_name":"Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2750212522"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"bioRxiv","raw_type":"posted-content"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7214674902.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7214674902.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7135548432","https://openalex.org/W4383533019","https://openalex.org/W3011001004","https://openalex.org/W4412564991","https://openalex.org/W6902297650","https://openalex.org/W3009487366","https://openalex.org/W4315574289","https://openalex.org/W6927280134","https://openalex.org/W2982320177","https://openalex.org/W3207484466"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"Temperature":[1],"shapes":[2],"life":[3,274],"histories":[4],"through":[5,211],"its":[6],"effects":[7],"on":[8,269],"energy":[9],"allocation":[10],"among":[11],"growth,":[12,54],"reproduction":[13,55,218,238],"and":[14,56,78,100,104,160,173,178,292],"maintenance.":[15],"The":[16,81,203],"resulting":[17],"temperature":[18,83,293],"dependence":[19],"of":[20,61,133,191,299],"performance":[21,27,102,122,283,301],"is":[22,194,239],"commonly":[23],"characterised":[24],"using":[25],"thermal":[26,46,67,201,286,305],"curves":[28],"(TPCs),":[29],"which":[30],"are":[31],"often":[32],"treated":[33],"as":[34,121],"static":[35],"descriptions":[36],"that":[37,88,126],"apply":[38],"uniformly":[39],"throughout":[40,58],"life.":[41],"Yet":[42],"the":[43,59,117,134,170,180,213,232,250,253,259],"response":[44,207],"to":[45,212],"variability":[47,294],"may":[48,280,295],"change":[49],"across":[50,139,249],"ontogeny.":[51,140],"We":[52],"recorded":[53],"survival":[57,242],"lifetimes":[60],"individual":[62],"Daphnia":[63],"magna":[64],"under":[65,84,89,123,127,221,224,243,284],"four":[66],"regimes:":[68],"Constant":[69,72,75,90,128,225],"Low":[70],"(15\u00b0C),":[71],"Rearing":[73],"(20\u00b0C),":[74],"High":[76],"(25\u00b0C)":[77],"Variable":[79,85,124,222,244],"(15\u201325\u00b0C).":[80],"mean":[82,270],"closely":[86],"matched":[87],"Rearing.":[91,129],"Using":[92],"an":[93,277],"allometric":[94],"energy-allocation":[95],"model,":[96],"we":[97],"derived":[98],"age-specific":[99],"lifetime":[101,214,217,234,237,282],"measures":[103],"quantified":[105],"their":[106],"uncertainty":[107],"with":[108,196,227],"a":[109,149,186,272],"stratified":[110],"individual-level":[111],"bootstrap.":[112],"Our":[113],"principal":[114],"quantity":[115],"was":[116,167,219],"Jensen":[118,135],"contrast,":[119],"defined":[120],"minus":[125],"Age-specific":[130],"point":[131,154],"estimates":[132,155],"contrast":[136,144],"changed":[137],"sign":[138],"A":[141],"positive":[142,157,171,181,204,261],"aggregate":[143,278],"in":[145,199,302],"full-trajectory":[146],"growth":[147,176],"concealed":[148],"negative":[150,163,174,233,255],"mid-life":[151,161,175],"contrast;":[152],"reproductive":[153,183,206,247],"were":[156],"during":[158],"early":[159],"but":[162],"later.":[164],"Bootstrap":[165],"support":[166,230],"strong":[168,228],"for":[169,179,231,289],"early-life":[172,182,205],"contrasts,":[177],"contrast.":[184,235],"Under":[185],"second-order":[187],"approximation,":[188],"this":[189],"pattern":[190],"estimated":[192,251],"signs":[193],"consistent":[195],"ontogenetic":[197],"changes":[198],"effective":[200],"curvature.":[202],"did":[208],"not":[209],"carry":[210],"outcome:":[215],"expected":[216],"lower":[220,241],"than":[223],"Rearing,":[226],"bootstrap":[229],"Because":[236],"survival-weighted,":[240],"reduced":[245],"later":[246],"contributions;":[248],"trajectories,":[252],"accumulated":[254],"late-life":[256],"contribution":[257],"outweighed":[258],"earlier":[260],"contributions.":[262],"These":[263],"results":[264],"show":[265],"why":[266],"forecasts":[267,298],"based":[268],"temperature,":[271],"single":[273],"stage":[275],"or":[276],"TPC":[279],"misrepresent":[281],"variable":[285,304],"regimes.":[287],"Accounting":[288],"both":[290],"ontogeny":[291],"therefore":[296],"improve":[297],"life-history":[300],"increasingly":[303],"environments.":[306]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-09T13:22:03.289127","created_date":"2026-09-29T00:00:00"}