{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7214623645","doi":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.26.754648","title":"Parameter non-identifiability limits ecological inference from historical plague mortality records","display_name":"Parameter non-identifiability limits ecological inference from historical plague mortality records","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-09-28","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7214623645","doi":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.26.754648"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.64898/2026.09.26.754648","doi":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.26.754648","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.26.754648","pdf_url":"https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2026/09/28/2026.09.26.754648.full.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402567","display_name":"bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2750212522","host_organization_name":"Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2750212522"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"bioRxiv","raw_type":"posted-content"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2026/09/28/2026.09.26.754648.full.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5056853730","display_name":"Nich W. Martin","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9539-250X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9539-250X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1313142568","display_name":"Florida Museum of Natural History","ror":"https://ror.org/02pjdv450","country_code":"US","type":"archive","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1313142568","https://openalex.org/I33213144"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Nich W. Martin","raw_affiliation_strings":["Florida Museum of Natural History, Gainesville, FL, USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9539-250X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Florida Museum of Natural History, Gainesville, FL, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1313142568"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5036812295","display_name":"Nicolas Gauthier","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2225-5827","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2225-5827"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1313142568","display_name":"Florida Museum of Natural History","ror":"https://ror.org/02pjdv450","country_code":"US","type":"archive","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1313142568","https://openalex.org/I33213144"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Nicolas Gauthier","raw_affiliation_strings":["Florida Museum of Natural History, Gainesville, FL, USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2225-5827","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Florida Museum of Natural History, Gainesville, FL, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1313142568"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5056853730"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1313142568"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10482","display_name":"Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models","score":0.7310000061988831,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2604","display_name":"Applied Mathematics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10482","display_name":"Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models","score":0.7310000061988831,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2604","display_name":"Applied Mathematics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12232","display_name":"Yersinia bacterium, plague, ectoparasites research","score":0.24490000307559967,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2725","display_name":"Infectious Diseases"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.0017999999690800905,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ecological-inference","display_name":"ecological inference","score":0.6669999957084656},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mechanistic-epidemic-models","display_name":"mechanistic epidemic models","score":0.7390000224113464},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/joint-posterior-distribution","display_name":"joint posterior distribution","score":0.6190000176429749},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/missing-data","display_name":"missing data","score":0.35600000619888306}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776214188","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q408386","display_name":"Inference","level":2,"score":0.722100019454956},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778059882","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q133780","display_name":"Plague (disease)","level":2,"score":0.5591999888420105},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49261128","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1132455","display_name":"Hazard","level":2,"score":0.5184999704360962},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18903297","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7150","display_name":"Ecology","level":1,"score":0.5170999765396118},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C761482","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q118093","display_name":"Transmission (telecommunications)","level":2,"score":0.44940000772476196},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C1627819","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2572354","display_name":"Epidemic model","level":3,"score":0.44830000400543213},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777786777","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q388162","display_name":"Flea","level":2,"score":0.43709999322891235},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.3675000071525574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.3662000000476837},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2992790187","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1145106","display_name":"Historical record","level":3,"score":0.36039999127388},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778112365","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3511065","display_name":"Sequence (biology)","level":2,"score":0.3476000130176544},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.31940001249313354},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C116675565","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3241045","display_name":"Outbreak","level":2,"score":0.31940001249313354},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.2815999984741211},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C89611455","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6804646","display_name":"Mechanism (biology)","level":2,"score":0.25859999656677246}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.64898/2026.09.26.754648","doi":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.26.754648","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.26.754648","pdf_url":"https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2026/09/28/2026.09.26.754648.full.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402567","display_name":"bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2750212522","host_organization_name":"Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2750212522"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"bioRxiv","raw_type":"posted-content"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.64898/2026.09.26.754648","doi":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.26.754648","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.26.754648","pdf_url":"https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2026/09/28/2026.09.26.754648.full.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402567","display_name":"bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2750212522","host_organization_name":"Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2750212522"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"bioRxiv","raw_type":"posted-content"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7214623645.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7214623645.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W1992092342","https://openalex.org/W2967303365","https://openalex.org/W2461623281","https://openalex.org/W2995763425","https://openalex.org/W7008496920","https://openalex.org/W30701443","https://openalex.org/W2667093709","https://openalex.org/W2117064125","https://openalex.org/W6991725359","https://openalex.org/W2209423819"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"Historical":[1],"plague":[2,64],"mortality":[3,46,78,180,203],"records":[4,9,181],"provide":[5],"unusually":[6],"detailed":[7,179],"temporal":[8,129,185],"of":[10,36,56,61,66,83,111,131,167,187,216,223],"epidemic":[11,189],"dynamics.":[12],"However,":[13,163],"the":[14,54,62,89,127,132,155,165,168,184,193],"ecological":[15,31,38,218],"processes":[16],"underlying":[17],"those":[18],"dynamics":[19,227],"are":[20],"rarely":[21],"observed.":[22],"This":[23],"creates":[24],"a":[25,70,97,107],"fundamental":[26],"challenge":[27],"for":[28,59],"inference":[29,207],"into":[30],"mechanisms,":[32],"as":[33,221,228,230],"multiple":[34],"combinations":[35],"unobserved":[37],"parameters":[39,144],"and":[40,139,145,148],"initial":[41,146],"conditions":[42],"may":[43,211],"produce":[44],"similar":[45],"trajectories.":[47],"We":[48,68,94],"investigated":[49],"this":[50],"problem":[51],"by":[52,106],"examining":[53],"geometry":[55],"parameter":[57,117],"compensation":[58],"models":[60,234],"Barcelona":[63],"outbreak":[65],"1490.":[67],"fit":[69],"mechanistic":[71,124,206],"rat-flea-human":[72],"transmission":[73,143],"model":[74,99,125],"to":[75,115,240,246],"daily":[76],"human":[77,102],"data":[79],"under":[80],"three":[81],"values":[82],"flea":[84,149,226],"search":[85],"efficiency,":[86],"then":[87,95],"characterized":[88],"resulting":[90],"joint":[91],"posterior":[92],"distributions.":[93],"used":[96],"phenomenological":[98,156],"in":[100,154],"which":[101,248],"infection":[103],"was":[104],"driven":[105],"time-varying":[108],"external":[109,169],"force":[110],"infection,":[112],"allowing":[113],"us":[114],"separate":[116],"dependencies":[118,141,152],"arising":[119],"from":[120,208],"deterministic":[121],"structure.":[122],"The":[123],"reproduced":[126],"broad":[128],"structure":[130],"observed":[133],"epidemic,":[134],"but":[135,244],"exhibited":[136],"strong":[137],"linear":[138],"nonlinear":[140],"among":[142],"rat":[147],"conditions.":[150],"Similar":[151],"persisted":[153],"model,":[157],"despite":[158],"its":[159],"substantially":[160,171],"reduced":[161,172],"complexity.":[162],"fixing":[164],"timing":[166,222],"hazard":[170],"these":[173],"dependencies.":[174],"These":[175],"results":[176],"demonstrate":[177],"that":[178,195],"can":[182,235],"constrain":[183],"pattern":[186],"an":[188],"without":[190],"uniquely":[191],"identifying":[192],"mechanisms":[194],"generated":[196],"it.":[197],"Rather":[198],"than":[199],"simply":[200],"adding":[201],"additional":[202],"records,":[204],"improving":[205],"historical":[209,242],"epidemics":[210,243],"require":[212],"recovering":[213],"independent":[214],"observations":[215,250],"upstream":[217],"processes,":[219],"such":[220],"rodent":[224],"or":[225],"well":[229],"environmental":[231],"drivers.":[232],"Mechanistic":[233],"therefore":[236],"serve":[237],"not":[238],"only":[239],"reconstruct":[241],"also":[245],"identify":[247],"missing":[249],"would":[251],"most":[252],"improve":[253],"inference.":[254]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-09T13:22:03.289127","created_date":"2026-09-29T00:00:00"}