{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7214616047","doi":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.27.754837","title":"Heat Waves Promote, but Cyclones Reverse, Coral-to-Seaweed Regime Shifts by Reshaping Reef Resilience","display_name":"Heat Waves Promote, but Cyclones Reverse, Coral-to-Seaweed Regime Shifts by Reshaping Reef Resilience","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-09-28","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7214616047","doi":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.27.754837"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.64898/2026.09.27.754837","doi":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.27.754837","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.27.754837","pdf_url":"https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2026/09/28/2026.09.27.754837.full.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402567","display_name":"bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2750212522","host_organization_name":"Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2750212522"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"bioRxiv","raw_type":"posted-content"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2026/09/28/2026.09.27.754837.full.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5044988184","display_name":"Russell J. Schmitt","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9674-4244","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9674-4244"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I154570441","display_name":"University of California, Santa Barbara","ror":"https://ror.org/02t274463","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I154570441"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Russell J. Schmitt","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA","Marine Science Institute, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9674-4244","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I154570441"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Marine Science Institute, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I154570441"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5089783627","display_name":"Kai L. Kopecky","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0021-3087","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0021-3087"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I154570441","display_name":"University of California, Santa Barbara","ror":"https://ror.org/02t274463","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I154570441"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I188538660","display_name":"University of Colorado Boulder","ror":"https://ror.org/02ttsq026","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I188538660"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Kai L. Kopecky","raw_affiliation_strings":["Environmental Data Science Innovation & Impact Lab (ESIIL), University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309 USA","Marine Science Institute, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0021-3087","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Environmental Data Science Innovation & Impact Lab (ESIIL), University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309 USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I188538660"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Marine Science Institute, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I154570441"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5030364824","display_name":"Andrew J. Brooks","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6651-1204","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6651-1204"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I154570441","display_name":"University of California, Santa Barbara","ror":"https://ror.org/02t274463","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I154570441"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Andrew J. Brooks","raw_affiliation_strings":["Marine Science Institute, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6651-1204","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Marine Science Institute, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I154570441"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5009852029","display_name":"Sally J. Holbrook","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3015-3484","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3015-3484"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I154570441","display_name":"University of California, Santa Barbara","ror":"https://ror.org/02t274463","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I154570441"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Sally J. Holbrook","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA","Marine Science Institute, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3015-3484","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I154570441"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Marine Science Institute, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I154570441"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5044988184"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I154570441"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10341","display_name":"Coral and Marine Ecosystems Studies","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2303","display_name":"Ecology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10341","display_name":"Coral and Marine Ecosystems Studies","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2303","display_name":"Ecology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13377","display_name":"Ecosystem dynamics and resilience","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10643","display_name":"Marine and coastal plant biology","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1910","display_name":"Oceanography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/marine-heatwaves","display_name":"marine heatwaves","score":0.8180000185966492},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/tropical-cyclones","display_name":"tropical cyclones","score":0.9369999766349792},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/coral-reef-resilience","display_name":"coral reef resilience","score":0.7110000252723694},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/material-legacies","display_name":"material legacies","score":0.8429999947547913},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/coral-skeleton","display_name":"coral skeleton","score":0.8050000071525574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/herbivory","display_name":"herbivory","score":0.7120000123977661},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/coral-recovery","display_name":"coral recovery","score":0.621999979019165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/rescue-effect","display_name":"rescue effect","score":0.7860000133514404},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/coral-mortality","display_name":"coral mortality","score":0.5329999923706055}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777601987","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5283581","display_name":"Disturbance (geology)","level":2,"score":0.8149999976158142},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77044568","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q184358","display_name":"Reef","level":2,"score":0.6728000044822693},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C79367842","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11292","display_name":"Coral reef","level":2,"score":0.6643999814987183},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777864850","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q79598","display_name":"Cyclone (programming language)","level":3,"score":0.6632999777793884},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C110872660","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37813","display_name":"Ecosystem","level":2,"score":0.6431999802589417},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.5202000141143799},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C125460053","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7315550","display_name":"Resilience of coral reefs","level":3,"score":0.4505999982357025},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779585090","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3457762","display_name":"Resilience (materials science)","level":2,"score":0.43479999899864197},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111368507","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43518","display_name":"Oceanography","level":1,"score":0.4207000136375427},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C143020374","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2411228","display_name":"Coral","level":2,"score":0.4097000062465668},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127313418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1069","display_name":"Geology","level":0,"score":0.3833000063896179},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18903297","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7150","display_name":"Ecology","level":1,"score":0.37610000371932983},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776608160","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4785462","display_name":"Natural (archaeology)","level":2,"score":0.3573000133037567},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132651083","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Climate change","level":2,"score":0.3124000132083893},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C137176749","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4105337","display_name":"Psychological resilience","level":2,"score":0.3075000047683716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105306849","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q81054","display_name":"Storm","level":2,"score":0.30660000443458557},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C96291035","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7144330","display_name":"Patch dynamics","level":3,"score":0.2969000041484833},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.2856000065803528},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2993456419","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q109534959","display_name":"Coastal ecosystem","level":3,"score":0.2842999994754791},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C189201455","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q110360","display_name":"Rogue wave","level":3,"score":0.2791999876499176},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151152651","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3304561","display_name":"Marine ecosystem","level":3,"score":0.2752000093460083},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C29141058","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8092","display_name":"Tropical cyclone","level":2,"score":0.2721000015735626},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153667321","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1420023","display_name":"Submersion (mathematics)","level":3,"score":0.26919999718666077},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780893879","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7308372","display_name":"Regime shift","level":3,"score":0.2669000029563904},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2993220731","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q215864","display_name":"Heat wave","level":3,"score":0.2653000056743622}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.64898/2026.09.27.754837","doi":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.27.754837","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.27.754837","pdf_url":"https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2026/09/28/2026.09.27.754837.full.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402567","display_name":"bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2750212522","host_organization_name":"Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2750212522"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"bioRxiv","raw_type":"posted-content"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.64898/2026.09.27.754837","doi":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.27.754837","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.27.754837","pdf_url":"https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2026/09/28/2026.09.27.754837.full.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402567","display_name":"bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2750212522","host_organization_name":"Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2750212522"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"bioRxiv","raw_type":"posted-content"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/14","display_name":"Life below water","score":1.0},{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/15","display_name":"Life on land","score":0.4390000104904175}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G6892804334","display_name":"LTER: MCR IV: Long-Term Dynamics of a Coral Reef Ecosystem","funder_award_id":"2224354","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","funder_display_name":"National Science Foundation"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","display_name":"National Science Foundation","ror":"https://ror.org/021nxhr62"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306202","display_name":"Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation","ror":"https://ror.org/006wxqw41"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7214616047.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7214616047.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":3,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W7087005241","https://openalex.org/W7164990946","https://openalex.org/W7166736721"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7061978648","https://openalex.org/W4321331273","https://openalex.org/W4405920393","https://openalex.org/W4402555554","https://openalex.org/W4327966549","https://openalex.org/W4402246515","https://openalex.org/W7133401651","https://openalex.org/W4412728020","https://openalex.org/W2997239824","https://openalex.org/W7099124085"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"Disturbances":[1],"alter":[2],"ecosystem":[3,165,249],"resilience":[4,172,230],"by":[5,212],"killing":[6],"organisms":[7],"and":[8,22,28,152,237,245,260,282,298,348,360],"leaving":[9],"behind":[10],"material":[11,16,176,233],"legacies.":[12],"We":[13],"tested":[14],"how":[15,366],"legacies":[17,177],"from":[18,60,143,288,320],"marine":[19],"heat":[20,119,254],"waves":[21,35,255,265,316],"cyclones":[23,47,262,273,325],"govern":[24],"transitions":[25],"between":[26],"coral-":[27],"seaweed-rich":[29,67,100,202],"states":[30],"on":[31,308,356,365],"tropical":[32],"reefs.":[33],"Heat":[34,264,315],"kill":[36,266,359],"coral":[37,121,267,300,312,321,328,344],"tissue":[38],"but":[39,268,278,363],"leave":[40,269,361],"their":[41,270,351],"skeletons":[42,57,73,142,281,285,296],"to":[43,65,85,88,103,129,134,150,156,292,313,322,343],"erode":[44],"gradually,":[45],"whereas":[46,272,324],"scour":[48,279],"away":[49,280],"emergent":[50],"biota.":[51],"Field":[52],"experiments":[53],"revealed":[54],"that":[55,69,94,186,337,350],"dead":[56],"protect":[58],"seaweeds":[59,86,130,151,215,287,291,306],"herbivory,":[61],"catalyzing":[62],"a":[63,66,105,139,144,196,201,204,209],"transition":[64],"state":[68],"becomes":[70],"self-sustaining":[71],"after":[72,111,118,138,195,295],"disappear.":[74],"After":[75],"four":[76,116,136],"years,":[77],"73%":[78],"of":[79,90,99,124],"skeleton-added":[80],"(\u2018heat":[81],"wave\u2019)":[82],"plots":[83,93,101,126],"transitioned":[84,128,149],"compared":[87],"0%":[89],"scoured":[91,102],"(\u2018cyclone\u2019)":[92],"lacked":[95],"skeletons,":[96,271],"while":[97],"87%":[98],"simulate":[104],"cyclone":[106,140,205],"stayed":[107],"seaweed-free.":[108],"Reef":[109],"trajectories":[110],"natural":[112],"disturbances":[113,188,339,368],"were":[114],"similar:":[115],"years":[117,137],"wave-induced":[120],"mortality,":[122],"63%":[123],"time-series":[125],"had":[127,148,154],"with":[131],"none":[132,147],"recovering":[133],"coral;":[135],"removed":[141],"prior":[145],"disturbance,":[146],"60%":[153],"returned":[155],"coral.":[157],"A":[158],"disturbance":[159,211,235],"not":[160,190,354],"only":[161,355],"can":[162,168,206,239,274,303,317,326],"displace":[163],"an":[164],"state,":[166,203],"it":[167,178],"rapidly":[169],"reshape":[170],"the":[171,175,224,334,370],"landscape":[173],"through":[174,231],"creates":[179],"or":[180,345],"removes.":[181],"Our":[182],"findings":[183],"also":[184,221,364],"show":[185],"successive":[187,338],"need":[189],"have":[191],"cumulative":[192],"negative":[193],"effects:":[194],"reef":[197],"is":[198],"driven":[199],"into":[200],"act":[207],"as":[208,241,243],"rescue":[210,331],"removing":[213],"established":[214],"and,":[216],"when":[217],"structural":[218],"refugia":[219],"are":[220,256,340],"removed,":[222],"shrinking":[223],"seaweed":[225],"stability":[226],"domain.":[227],"By":[228],"reshaping":[229],"contrasting":[232],"legacies,":[234],"type":[236],"sequence":[238],"be":[240],"important":[242],"frequency":[244],"severity":[246],"in":[247],"determining":[248],"trajectories.":[250],"Significance":[251],"Statement":[252],"Marine":[253],"becoming":[257],"more":[258],"frequent,":[259],"powerful":[261],"stronger.":[263],"cause":[275],"comparable":[276],"mortality":[277],"seaweeds.":[283],"Decaying":[284],"shelter":[286],"herbivores,":[289],"enabling":[290,311],"proliferate,":[293],"persist":[294],"disappear,":[297],"prevent":[299],"recovery.":[301,329],"Herbivores":[302],"better":[304],"keep":[305],"suppressed":[307],"storm-scoured":[309],"reefs,":[310],"recolonize.":[314],"promote":[318,327],"shifts":[319],"seaweeds,":[323],"This":[330],"effect":[332],"challenges":[333],"widespread":[335],"view":[336],"invariably":[341],"harmful":[342],"other":[346],"ecosystems":[347],"shows":[349],"effects":[352],"depend":[353],"what":[357],"they":[358],"behind,":[362],"previous":[367],"altered":[369],"ecosystem.":[371]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-08T12:12:28.789561","created_date":"2026-09-29T00:00:00"}