{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7214236012","doi":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.18.752593","title":"Borrowing data from other populations to forecast epidemic size","display_name":"Borrowing data from other populations to forecast epidemic size","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-09-24","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7214236012","doi":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.18.752593"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.64898/2026.09.18.752593","doi":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.18.752593","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.18.752593","pdf_url":"https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2026/09/24/2026.09.18.752593.full.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402567","display_name":"bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2750212522","host_organization_name":"Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2750212522"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"bioRxiv","raw_type":"posted-content"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2026/09/24/2026.09.18.752593.full.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5039742404","display_name":"Sam Paplauskas","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0303-0929","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0303-0929"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I12093191","display_name":"University of Stirling","ror":"https://ror.org/045wgfr59","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I12093191"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Sam Paplauskas","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Stirling, Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Stirling, FK9 4LA, Scotland, UK"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0303-0929","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Stirling, Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Stirling, FK9 4LA, Scotland, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I12093191"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5039742404"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I12093191"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10815","display_name":"Parasite Biology and Host Interactions","score":0.8080999851226807,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2405","display_name":"Parasitology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/24","display_name":"Immunology and Microbiology"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/1","display_name":"Life Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10815","display_name":"Parasite Biology and Host Interactions","score":0.8080999851226807,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2405","display_name":"Parasitology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/24","display_name":"Immunology and Microbiology"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/1","display_name":"Life Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10482","display_name":"Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models","score":0.17030000686645508,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2604","display_name":"Applied Mathematics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11764","display_name":"Evolution and Genetic Dynamics","score":0.0032999999821186066,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1311","display_name":"Genetics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/13","display_name":"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/1","display_name":"Life Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/epidemic-forecasting","display_name":"epidemic forecasting","score":0.9150000214576721},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/spatial-replication","display_name":"spatial replication","score":0.5400000214576721},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/daphnia","display_name":"Daphnia","score":0.703000009059906},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/seasonal-dynamics","display_name":"seasonal dynamics","score":0.4909999966621399},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/arima-model","display_name":"ARIMA model","score":0.7390000224113464},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/time-series-regression","display_name":"time series regression","score":0.9020000100135803},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/disease-prevalence","display_name":"disease prevalence","score":0.6729999780654907}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C24338571","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2566298","display_name":"Autoregressive integrated moving average","level":3,"score":0.5831000208854675},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126831891","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q221673","display_name":"Host (biology)","level":2,"score":0.5795999765396118},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.5357000231742859},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C83546350","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1139051","display_name":"Regression","level":2,"score":0.48919999599456787},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165064840","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1321061","display_name":"Matching (statistics)","level":2,"score":0.43869999051094055},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.39469999074935913},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C152877465","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q208042","display_name":"Regression analysis","level":2,"score":0.38519999384880066},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185798385","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1161707","display_name":"Benchmark (surveying)","level":2,"score":0.37720000743865967},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.3328000009059906},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C524204448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q788926","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","level":3,"score":0.3197000026702881},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C12590798","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3933199","display_name":"Replication (statistics)","level":2,"score":0.30480000376701355},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.30300000309944153},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C125403950","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2111082","display_name":"Seasonality","level":2,"score":0.3021000027656555},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18903297","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7150","display_name":"Ecology","level":1,"score":0.301800012588501},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.2754000127315521},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779134260","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12136","display_name":"Disease","level":2,"score":0.27149999141693115},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.2662000060081482},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C103278499","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q254465","display_name":"Similarity (geometry)","level":3,"score":0.25609999895095825}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.64898/2026.09.18.752593","doi":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.18.752593","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.18.752593","pdf_url":"https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2026/09/24/2026.09.18.752593.full.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402567","display_name":"bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2750212522","host_organization_name":"Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2750212522"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"bioRxiv","raw_type":"posted-content"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.64898/2026.09.18.752593","doi":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.18.752593","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.18.752593","pdf_url":"https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2026/09/24/2026.09.18.752593.full.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402567","display_name":"bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2750212522","host_organization_name":"Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2750212522"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"bioRxiv","raw_type":"posted-content"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334631","display_name":"Natural Environment Research Council","ror":"https://ror.org/02b5d8509"}],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7214236012.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7214236012.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":49,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1530378633","https://openalex.org/W1537506907","https://openalex.org/W1776328961","https://openalex.org/W1845699430","https://openalex.org/W1967449174","https://openalex.org/W1969562808","https://openalex.org/W1971319553","https://openalex.org/W1984151759","https://openalex.org/W1994930576","https://openalex.org/W1996365476","https://openalex.org/W2014225118","https://openalex.org/W2022035895","https://openalex.org/W2029459441","https://openalex.org/W2044333227","https://openalex.org/W2053776716","https://openalex.org/W2055290004","https://openalex.org/W2056530754","https://openalex.org/W2070704344","https://openalex.org/W2101968928","https://openalex.org/W2104349509","https://openalex.org/W2105978464","https://openalex.org/W2121253068","https://openalex.org/W2124939796","https://openalex.org/W2125179385","https://openalex.org/W2140887451","https://openalex.org/W2148301044","https://openalex.org/W2148644736","https://openalex.org/W2159082647","https://openalex.org/W2159967349","https://openalex.org/W2160625753","https://openalex.org/W2160968777","https://openalex.org/W2315262250","https://openalex.org/W2323339614","https://openalex.org/W2398520997","https://openalex.org/W2509475705","https://openalex.org/W2578484825","https://openalex.org/W2607107373","https://openalex.org/W2619153423","https://openalex.org/W2795390616","https://openalex.org/W2809210280","https://openalex.org/W2886754701","https://openalex.org/W3017538594","https://openalex.org/W3033232317","https://openalex.org/W3107979244","https://openalex.org/W3133013051","https://openalex.org/W3171647300","https://openalex.org/W3181994657","https://openalex.org/W3200268646","https://openalex.org/W4224297047"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3015494731","https://openalex.org/W1971977823","https://openalex.org/W2988205563","https://openalex.org/W4393163573","https://openalex.org/W2039630366","https://openalex.org/W4412526920","https://openalex.org/W3172548070","https://openalex.org/W3111524185","https://openalex.org/W1594501461","https://openalex.org/W2530168489"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"Forecasting":[1],"infectious":[2],"disease":[3,12,89],"dynamics":[4,119,126],"is":[5,223],"important":[6],"for":[7,183],"ecological":[8,239],"management":[9],"and":[10,54,80,94,107,138,166,234],"emerging":[11],"preparedness,":[13],"yet":[14],"many":[15],"systems":[16],"lack":[17],"the":[18,41,145,149,200,228,238],"long-term":[19],"datasets":[20],"required":[21],"to":[22,35,43,71,237],"develop":[23],"reliable":[24],"predictions.":[25],"Spatial":[26],"replication":[27],"may":[28],"provide":[29],"an":[30],"alternative":[31],"by":[32],"allowing":[33],"information":[34,74,213],"be":[36],"shared":[37],"among":[38,214],"populations,":[39,122],"but":[40,170,222],"extent":[42],"which":[44],"this":[45],"improves":[46,78],"forecasting":[47,153,232],"remains":[48],"unclear.":[49],"Here,":[50],"I":[51,87],"used":[52],"epidemic":[53],"temperature":[55],"data":[56,116,235],"from":[57,75,127],"20":[58],"replicated":[59],"semi-natural":[60],"Daphnia":[61],"\u2013parasite":[62],"pond":[63],"populations":[64,77,215],"monitored":[65],"across":[66,120,158],"four":[67],"seasons":[68],"(80":[69],"epidemics)":[70],"test":[72],"whether":[73,81],"multiple":[76],"forecasts":[79,163,178,203,218],"environmental":[82],"similarity":[83],"identifies":[84],"informative":[85],"populations.":[86,130],"forecasted":[88],"prevalence,":[90],"infected":[91,139,167],"host":[92,96,140,168,173,206],"density,":[93],"healthy":[95,172,205],"density":[97,141,169],"using":[98,114],"a":[99],"benchmark":[100],"model,":[101],"autoregressive":[102],"integrated":[103],"moving":[104],"average":[105],"(ARIMA),":[106],"time-series":[108],"regression":[109],"models.":[110],"Models":[111],"were":[112],"trained":[113],"focal-population":[115],"alone,":[117],"mean":[118,125],"other":[121],"or":[123],"temperature-weighted":[124,187],"environmentally":[128],"similar":[129],"Epidemics":[131],"showed":[132],"strong":[133],"seasonal":[134],"structure,":[135],"with":[136],"prevalence":[137,165],"generally":[142],"peaking":[143],"during":[144],"warmest":[146],"period":[147],"of":[148,164,204,230],"season.":[150],"However,":[151],"no":[152,190],"approach":[154],"consistently":[155,198],"outperformed":[156],"others":[157],"all":[159],"variables.":[160],"Temperature":[161],"improved":[162,177],"not":[171,224],"density.":[174,207],"Multi-population":[175],"training":[176],"in":[179],"some":[180],"cases,":[181],"particularly":[182],"ARIMA":[184],"models,":[185],"whereas":[186],"averaging":[188],"provided":[189],"additional":[191],"benefit":[192],"over":[193],"simple":[194],"averaging.":[195],"Regression":[196],"models":[197],"produced":[199],"most":[201],"accurate":[202],"These":[208],"results":[209],"show":[210],"that":[211],"borrowing":[212],"can":[216],"improve":[217],"under":[219],"specific":[220],"conditions":[221],"universally":[225],"beneficial,":[226],"highlighting":[227],"importance":[229],"matching":[231],"approaches":[233],"sources":[236],"processes":[240],"being":[241],"predicted.":[242]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-09T13:22:03.289127","created_date":"2026-09-25T00:00:00"}
