{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7214082483","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2609.25824","title":"Quasi-Gaussian Missing Higher Order Uncertainties","display_name":"Quasi-Gaussian Missing Higher Order Uncertainties","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-09-22","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7214082483","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2609.25824"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2609.25824","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.25824","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.25824","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["arxiv","datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.25824","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5040266225","display_name":"Marco Bonvini","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5076-1284","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5076-1284"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210157426","display_name":"Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Sezione di Roma I","ror":"https://ror.org/05eva6s33","country_code":"IT","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I160013858","https://openalex.org/I4210157426"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Bonvini, Marco","raw_affiliation_strings":["\ud835\udc4e INFN , Sezione di Roma , Piazzale Aldo Moro 5 , Roma , Italy"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"\ud835\udc4e INFN , Sezione di Roma , Piazzale Aldo Moro 5 , Roma , Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210157426"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5041396090","display_name":"Emanuele Bagnaschi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6827-5022","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6827-5022"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Bagnaschi, Emanuele","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5152511275","display_name":"Lorenzo Paparella","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I861853513","display_name":"Sapienza University of Rome","ror":"https://ror.org/02be6w209","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I861853513"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Paparella, Lorenzo","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Physics , Sapienza University , Piazzale Aldo Moro 5 , Roma , Italy"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Physics , Sapienza University , Piazzale Aldo Moro 5 , Roma , Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I861853513"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10048","display_name":"Particle physics theoretical and experimental studies","score":0.8525000214576721,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3106","display_name":"Nuclear and High Energy Physics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/31","display_name":"Physics and Astronomy"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10048","display_name":"Particle physics theoretical and experimental studies","score":0.8525000214576721,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3106","display_name":"Nuclear and High Energy Physics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/31","display_name":"Physics and Astronomy"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10243","display_name":"Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference","score":0.050999999046325684,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10224","display_name":"Quantum Chromodynamics and Particle Interactions","score":0.025100000202655792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3106","display_name":"Nuclear and High Energy Physics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/31","display_name":"Physics and Astronomy"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-uncertainty-quantification","display_name":"Bayesian uncertainty quantification","score":0.8199999928474426},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probability-distributions","display_name":"probability distributions","score":0.6610000133514404},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/non-gaussian-uncertainty","display_name":"non-Gaussian uncertainty","score":0.5289999842643738}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177769412","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q278090","display_name":"Prior probability","level":3,"score":0.7164000272750854},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.5978000164031982},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.5781000256538391},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149441793","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q200726","display_name":"Probability distribution","level":2,"score":0.5291000008583069},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C28826006","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q33521","display_name":"Applied mathematics","level":1,"score":0.5245000123977661},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C163716315","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q901177","display_name":"Gaussian","level":2,"score":0.49639999866485596},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C9357733","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6878417","display_name":"Missing data","level":2,"score":0.44690001010894775},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C110121322","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q865811","display_name":"Distribution (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.4271000027656555},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49781872","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1045555","display_name":"Maximum likelihood","level":2,"score":0.3763999938964844},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121864883","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q677916","display_name":"Statistical physics","level":1,"score":0.3718999922275543},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C130648207","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6007562","display_name":"Imprecise probability","level":3,"score":0.3564000129699707},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C182306322","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1779371","display_name":"Order (exchange)","level":2,"score":0.3562999963760376},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C61224824","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2260434","display_name":"Mixture model","level":2,"score":0.3544999957084656},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C61326573","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1496376","display_name":"Gaussian process","level":3,"score":0.34389999508857727},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11413529","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8366","display_name":"Algorithm","level":1,"score":0.33889999985694885},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.3278000056743622},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C160234255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812535","display_name":"Bayesian inference","level":3,"score":0.32659998536109924},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C32230216","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7882499","display_name":"Uncertainty quantification","level":2,"score":0.3237000107765198},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C97933134","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5374249","display_name":"Empirical probability","level":4,"score":0.31709998846054077},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C57830394","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q278079","display_name":"Posterior probability","level":3,"score":0.314300000667572},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C197096303","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q869887","display_name":"Probability mass function","level":3,"score":0.30300000309944153},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C197055811","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q207522","display_name":"Probability density function","level":2,"score":0.2992999851703644},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.2985000014305115},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C57205106","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3258519","display_name":"Inverse-chi-squared distribution","level":4,"score":0.29760000109672546},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C68022304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q842217","display_name":"Bayes estimator","level":3,"score":0.2962000072002411},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C167928553","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1376021","display_name":"Estimation theory","level":2,"score":0.28929999470710754},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C122203268","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5862903","display_name":"Probability theory","level":2,"score":0.28780001401901245},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C207201462","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q182505","display_name":"Bayes' theorem","level":3,"score":0.27730000019073486},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43596424","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q98124957","display_name":"Probability and statistics","level":2,"score":0.26899999380111694},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C114289077","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3284399","display_name":"Statistical model","level":2,"score":0.2630999982357025},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126255220","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q141495","display_name":"Mathematical optimization","level":1,"score":0.258899986743927},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21031990","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q355020","display_name":"Probability measure","level":2,"score":0.2556000053882599},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132878287","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1671727","display_name":"Inverse Gaussian distribution","level":3,"score":0.2538999915122986},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C128963836","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6322815","display_name":"K-distribution","level":3,"score":0.25209999084472656},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C72396439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q16000505","display_name":"Symmetric probability distribution","level":3,"score":0.2517000138759613},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C101112237","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4874481","display_name":"Bayesian statistics","level":4,"score":0.25119999051094055}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2609.25824","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.25824","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.25824","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2609.25824","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2609.25824","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2609.25824","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2609.25824","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.25824","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.25824","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7214082483.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7214082483.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":4,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1994136998","https://openalex.org/W2014291682","https://openalex.org/W3038867202","https://openalex.org/W3168337329"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3038867202","https://openalex.org/W2219647228","https://openalex.org/W6981651090","https://openalex.org/W7097225719","https://openalex.org/W3025321476","https://openalex.org/W4235306227","https://openalex.org/W3168337329","https://openalex.org/W4320853994","https://openalex.org/W3071641020","https://openalex.org/W4389116031"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"We":[0],"review":[1],"Bayesian":[2],"models":[3,17],"for":[4],"estimating":[5],"the":[6,29,54,57,60],"uncertainty":[7],"induced":[8],"by":[9,51],"missing":[10],"higher":[11],"orders":[12],"in":[13,34],"perturbative":[14],"predictions.":[15],"These":[16],"return":[18],"probability":[19,46],"distributions,":[20],"which":[21],"have":[22],"peculiar":[23],"shapes":[24,50],"typically":[25],"very":[26],"different":[27],"from":[28],"Gaussian":[30],"distribution":[31],"often":[32],"assumed":[33],"physics":[35],"analysis.":[36],"In":[37],"this":[38],"work,":[39],"we":[40],"are":[41],"able":[42],"to":[43],"obtain":[44],"smooth":[45],"distributions":[47],"with":[48],"quasi-Gaussians":[49],"suitably":[52],"modifying":[53],"likelihood":[55],"and":[56],"priors":[58],"of":[59],"models.":[61]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2026-09-24T00:00:00"}