{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7213867732","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2609.22045","title":"Asteroids Impacting the Solar System Planets and the Moon. III. Real Impacts from Known Objects and LSST Discovery Predictions","display_name":"Asteroids Impacting the Solar System Planets and the Moon. III. Real Impacts from Known Objects and LSST Discovery Predictions","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-09-18","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7213867732","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2609.22045"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2609.22045","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.22045","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.22045","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["arxiv","datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.22045","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5123843964","display_name":"Qifeng Cheng","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0002-7847-8082","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0002-7847-8082"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I170897317","display_name":"Duke University","ror":"https://ror.org/00py81415","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I170897317"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Cheng, Qifeng","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Physics , Duke University , Durham , NC 27708 , USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Physics , Duke University , Durham , NC 27708 , USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I170897317"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5012463105","display_name":"Daniel M. Scolnic","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4934-5849","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4934-5849"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I170897317","display_name":"Duke University","ror":"https://ror.org/00py81415","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I170897317"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Scolnic, Daniel","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering , Duke University , Durham , NC 27708 , USA","Department of Physics , Duke University , Durham , NC 27708 , USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering , Duke University , Durham , NC 27708 , USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I170897317"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Physics , Duke University , Durham , NC 27708 , USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I170897317"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I170897317"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10325","display_name":"Astro and Planetary Science","score":0.9887999892234802,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1912","display_name":"Space and Planetary Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10325","display_name":"Astro and Planetary Science","score":0.9887999892234802,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1912","display_name":"Space and Planetary Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11701","display_name":"Space Satellite Systems and Control","score":0.008100000210106373,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2202","display_name":"Aerospace Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10039","display_name":"Stellar, planetary, and galactic studies","score":0.00039999998989515007,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3103","display_name":"Astronomy and Astrophysics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/31","display_name":"Physics and Astronomy"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/asteroid-impact","display_name":"asteroid impact","score":0.875},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/impact-rate","display_name":"impact rate","score":0.7020000219345093},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/near-earth-object","display_name":"near-Earth objects","score":0.6990000009536743},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/centaurs","display_name":"centaurs","score":0.7139999866485596},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/vera-c-rubin-observatory-legacy-survey-of-space-and-time","display_name":"Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time","score":0.8659999966621399}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C58142911","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3863","display_name":"Asteroid","level":2,"score":0.8605999946594238},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C539450922","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q544","display_name":"Solar System","level":2,"score":0.7642999887466431},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C22268893","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1102176","display_name":"Jupiter (rocket family)","level":3,"score":0.553600013256073},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779919027","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q62832","display_name":"Observatory","level":2,"score":0.5460000038146973},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C51244244","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q634","display_name":"Planet","level":2,"score":0.5236999988555908},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C1276947","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q333","display_name":"Astronomy","level":1,"score":0.5080999732017517},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C87355193","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q411","display_name":"Astrobiology","level":1,"score":0.5013999938964844},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C93623110","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q265392","display_name":"Near-Earth object","level":3,"score":0.5012999773025513},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.4659999907016754},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C13662910","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q193139","display_name":"Trajectory","level":2,"score":0.4625999927520752},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776834974","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q672021","display_name":"Large Synoptic Survey Telescope","level":3,"score":0.4512999951839447},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C196644772","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3884964","display_name":"Orbit (dynamics)","level":2,"score":0.4278999865055084},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204323151","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q905424","display_name":"Range (aeronautics)","level":2,"score":0.41620001196861267},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107768556","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q302660","display_name":"Orbit determination","level":3,"score":0.3939000070095062},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781209320","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1022867","display_name":"Minor planet","level":3,"score":0.3846000134944916},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C32581055","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q737809","display_name":"Heliocentric orbit","level":5,"score":0.3476000130176544},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778105581","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1925316","display_name":"Meteor (satellite)","level":2,"score":0.337799996137619},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C100905312","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q206717","display_name":"Planetary system","level":3,"score":0.28850001096725464},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C10393806","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7012","display_name":"Meteoroid","level":2,"score":0.2802000045776367},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C100253034","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q196372","display_name":"Systematic error","level":2,"score":0.26739999651908875},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44870925","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37547","display_name":"Astrophysics","level":1,"score":0.26649999618530273},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C104060986","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q180046","display_name":"Space exploration","level":2,"score":0.2630000114440918},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C187107819","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q835696","display_name":"NASA Deep Space Network","level":3,"score":0.2574999928474426},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C6629501","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q842433","display_name":"Orbital mechanics","level":3,"score":0.2563999891281128},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2775936607","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q466845","display_name":"Tracking (education)","level":2,"score":0.25440001487731934},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779662365","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5416694","display_name":"Event (particle physics)","level":2,"score":0.2542000114917755},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C207953293","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q83203","display_name":"Centaur","level":2,"score":0.25099998712539673},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C152551177","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q104499","display_name":"Planetary science","level":2,"score":0.2500999867916107}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2609.22045","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.22045","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.22045","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2609.22045","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2609.22045","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2609.22045","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2609.22045","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.22045","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.22045","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306084","display_name":"U.S. Department of Energy","ror":"https://ror.org/01bj3aw27"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306151","display_name":"Alfred P. Sloan Foundation","ror":"https://ror.org/052csg198"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306193","display_name":"John Templeton Foundation","ror":"https://ror.org/035tnyy05"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320333504","display_name":"Trinity College of Arts and Sciences, Duke University","ror":null}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7213867732.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7213867732.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":16,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1977421797","https://openalex.org/W1993156514","https://openalex.org/W2050862035","https://openalex.org/W2070558616","https://openalex.org/W2126344940","https://openalex.org/W2159714423","https://openalex.org/W2163755141","https://openalex.org/W4251535291","https://openalex.org/W4390614325","https://openalex.org/W4400833407","https://openalex.org/W4404635836","https://openalex.org/W4412520185","https://openalex.org/W4412520191","https://openalex.org/W4412520214","https://openalex.org/W7151620983","https://openalex.org/W7155171531"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7155171531","https://openalex.org/W7161304992","https://openalex.org/W7151620983","https://openalex.org/W7213947625","https://openalex.org/W1967375377","https://openalex.org/W3078878430","https://openalex.org/W85483374","https://openalex.org/W2766696746","https://openalex.org/W3126625622","https://openalex.org/W3123036762"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Impact":[0],"rates":[1],"predicted":[2],"using":[3],"pre-impact":[4],"source-population":[5,271],"models":[6,272],"and":[7,26,44,58,70,84,106,167,176,229,273],"those":[8],"inferred":[9],"from":[10,77,115,200],"observations":[11],"disagree":[12],"by":[13],"a":[14,17,91,109,170,201,237,254,265],"factor":[15],"of":[16,40,60,68,149,160,173,181,185,256],"few":[18],"to":[19,124,196,205,260],"$\\sim200$":[20,104],"across":[21],"the":[22,27,38,61,116,138,150,161,198,214,274],"Solar":[23],"System":[24],"planets":[25],"Moon.":[28],"An":[29],"exciting":[30],"opportunity":[31],"for":[32,243,269],"an":[33,99,125],"additional":[34],"observational":[35,267],"constraint":[36],"is":[37],"discovery":[39],"asteroids":[41],"before":[42,207,262],"impact":[43,100,127,140,165,206,216],"their":[45],"tracking":[46],"until":[47],"impact.":[48],"We":[49],"evaluate":[50],"this":[51],"prospect":[52],"based":[53],"on":[54,240],"both":[55,241],"known":[56,78],"objects":[57],"forecasts":[59],"Vera":[62],"C.":[63],"Rubin":[64],"Observatory":[65],"Legacy":[66],"Survey":[67],"Space":[69],"Time":[71],"(LSST).":[72],"First,":[73],"we":[74,142,212],"identify":[75,253],"impacts":[76],"objects,":[79],"confirming":[80],"multiple":[81],"past":[82],"cases":[83],"predicting":[85],"two":[86],"coming":[87],"impacts:":[88],"2015":[89],"FK488,":[90],"$\\sim1.8$":[92],"km":[93],"Centaur":[94],"whose":[95,120],"nominal":[96,121],"orbit":[97,204],"predicts":[98],"with":[101,236],"Jupiter":[102,232],"in":[103,128,155],"yr,":[105],"2022":[107],"KG1,":[108],"$<10$":[110],"m":[111,175],"NEO":[112],"recently":[113],"removed":[114],"impact-risk":[117],"lists":[118],"but":[119],"trajectory":[122],"leads":[123],"Earth":[126,225],"$\\sim260$":[129],"yr.":[130,183],"Both":[131],"orbits":[132],"are":[133,187],"poorly":[134],"constrained.":[135],"Second,":[136],"assuming":[137],"model-based":[139],"rate,":[141],"predict":[143],"that":[144,250],"LSST":[145,218,251],"will":[146,164,219],"discover":[147,222],"7":[148],"59":[151],"synthetic":[152],"impactors":[153,163,226,233,258],"quantified":[154],"our":[156],"previous":[157],"analysis.":[158],"All":[159],"discovered":[162,188],"Jupiter,":[166],"they":[168],"have":[169],"size":[171],"range":[172,239],"$\\sim200-2000$":[174],"expected":[177],"discovery-to-collision":[178,244],"lead":[179,245],"times":[180],"$1.94-257.4$":[182],"Two":[184],"them":[186],"inside":[189],"Jupiter's":[190],"Hill":[191],"sphere,":[192],"offering":[193],"rare":[194],"opportunities":[195],"observe":[197],"transition":[199],"temporary":[202],"bound":[203],"it":[208],"happens.":[209],"If":[210],"instead":[211],"assume":[213],"observation-inferred":[215],"rates,":[217],"at":[220],"most":[221],"$\\sim20$":[223],"future":[224,231],"($>10$":[227,234],"m)":[228],"$\\sim300$":[230],"m),":[235],"wider":[238],"ends":[242],"times.":[246],"These":[247],"results":[248],"demonstrate":[249],"can":[252],"subset":[255],"planetary":[257],"years":[259],"centuries":[261],"collision,":[263],"providing":[264],"new":[266],"pathway":[268],"testing":[270],"impact-rate":[275],"mismatch.":[276]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2026-09-22T00:00:00"}