{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7213612289","doi":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-10744980/v1","title":"Fine-tuning a weather model for improved ensemble subseasonal forecasting","display_name":"Fine-tuning a weather model for improved ensemble subseasonal forecasting","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-10-13","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7213612289","doi":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-10744980/v1"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-10744980/v1","doi":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-10744980/v1","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-10744980/v1","pdf_url":"https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-10744980/latest.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525896","display_name":"Research Square","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Research Square","raw_type":"posted-content"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref","datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-10744980/latest.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5071584268","display_name":"Vateanui Sansine","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7788-1374","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7788-1374"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4387153725","display_name":"Sant\u00e9 et Services des Ecosyt\u00e8mes Polyn\u00e9siens","ror":"https://ror.org/001j26r80","country_code":"PF","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I154202486","https://openalex.org/I2802818602","https://openalex.org/I4210090127","https://openalex.org/I4210131494","https://openalex.org/I4210166444","https://openalex.org/I4387153725","https://openalex.org/I86908984"]}],"countries":["PF"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Vateanui Sansine","raw_affiliation_strings":["Sant\u00e9 et Services des Ecosyt\u00e8mes Polyn\u00e9siens"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Sant\u00e9 et Services des Ecosyt\u00e8mes Polyn\u00e9siens","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4387153725"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5084416272","display_name":"Takeshi Izumo","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9617-2234","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9617-2234"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Takeshi Izumo","raw_affiliation_strings":["French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development","institution_ids":[]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5005431014","display_name":"Marania Hopuare","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7821-0639","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7821-0639"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4405254492","display_name":"G\u00e9op\u00f4le du Pacifique Sud","ror":"https://ror.org/01w176078","country_code":"PF","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4405254492","https://openalex.org/I86908984"]}],"countries":["PF"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Marania Hopuare","raw_affiliation_strings":["G\u00e9op\u00f4le du Pacifique Sud"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"G\u00e9op\u00f4le du Pacifique Sud","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4405254492"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5013161779","display_name":"Damien Specq","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4572-0226","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4572-0226"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1294671590","display_name":"Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique","ror":"https://ror.org/02feahw73","country_code":"FR","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1294671590"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210088553","display_name":"Centre National de Recherches M\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques","ror":"https://ror.org/004rej139","country_code":"FR","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1294671590","https://openalex.org/I4210088553","https://openalex.org/I4210113730","https://openalex.org/I4210148025"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210113730","display_name":"M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France","ror":"https://ror.org/0233st365","country_code":"FR","type":"other","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210113730"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4405258862","display_name":"Universit\u00e9 de Toulouse","ror":"https://ror.org/01ahyrz84","country_code":"FR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4405258862"]}],"countries":["FR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Damien Specq","raw_affiliation_strings":["M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France, CNRS, Univ. Toulouse, CNRM"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France, CNRS, Univ. Toulouse, CNRM","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1294671590","https://openalex.org/I4210088553","https://openalex.org/I4210113730","https://openalex.org/I4405258862"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5158577386","display_name":"Sophie Martinoni-La Pierre","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210113730","display_name":"M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France","ror":"https://ror.org/0233st365","country_code":"FR","type":"other","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210113730"]}],"countries":["FR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Sophie Martinoni-La Pierre","raw_affiliation_strings":["M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210113730"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":6,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10466","display_name":"Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations","score":0.9940999746322632,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10466","display_name":"Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations","score":0.9940999746322632,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":0.0017000000225380063,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11490","display_name":"Hydrological Forecasting Using AI","score":0.001500000013038516,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2305","display_name":"Environmental Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/subseasonal-forecasting","display_name":"subseasonal forecasting","score":0.9980000257492065},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/fine-tuning","display_name":"fine-tuning","score":0.8119999766349792},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/graphcast","display_name":"GraphCast","score":0.8799999952316284},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ensemble-forecasting","display_name":"ensemble forecasting","score":0.8410000205039978},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/data-sampling","display_name":"data sampling","score":0.7059999704360962},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/rainfall-prediction","display_name":"precipitation forecasting","score":0.8820000290870667},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/water-management","display_name":"water management","score":0.675000011920929}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.5508000254631042},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.5494999885559082},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21001229","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q182868","display_name":"Weather forecasting","level":2,"score":0.4307999908924103},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119898033","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3433888","display_name":"Ensemble forecasting","level":2,"score":0.3691999912261963},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C147947694","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q837552","display_name":"Numerical weather prediction","level":2,"score":0.34540000557899475},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C24552861","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2670177","display_name":"Data assimilation","level":2,"score":0.27619999647140503},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49204034","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52139","display_name":"Climatology","level":1,"score":0.27390000224113464},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2987469573","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q182868","display_name":"Weather prediction","level":2,"score":0.2669000029563904},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C118365302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4817115","display_name":"Atmospheric model","level":2,"score":0.2547999918460846},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C76969082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q486902","display_name":"Mathematical model","level":2,"score":0.2538999915122986},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62649853","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q199687","display_name":"Remote sensing","level":1,"score":0.25380000472068787},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C61797465","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1188986","display_name":"Term (time)","level":2,"score":0.2506999969482422}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-10744980/v1","doi":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-10744980/v1","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-10744980/v1","pdf_url":"https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-10744980/latest.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525896","display_name":"Research Square","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Research Square","raw_type":"posted-content"},{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.22821656","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22821656","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22821656","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Dataset"},{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.22821657","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22821657","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22821657","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Dataset"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-10744980/v1","doi":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-10744980/v1","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-10744980/v1","pdf_url":"https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-10744980/latest.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525896","display_name":"Research Square","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Research Square","raw_type":"posted-content"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","score":0.821399986743927,"display_name":"Climate action"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7213612289.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7213612289.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":12,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W2026426427","https://openalex.org/W2338908902","https://openalex.org/W2964121744","https://openalex.org/W4214864556","https://openalex.org/W4225906496","https://openalex.org/W4235906135","https://openalex.org/W4385350660","https://openalex.org/W4399695111","https://openalex.org/W4400880443","https://openalex.org/W4404648184","https://openalex.org/W4414749051","https://openalex.org/W4417511384"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7135246085","https://openalex.org/W4408272392","https://openalex.org/W7135221807","https://openalex.org/W6973984915","https://openalex.org/W4400668083","https://openalex.org/W7167603396","https://openalex.org/W3201404958","https://openalex.org/W7165561294","https://openalex.org/W4393212472","https://openalex.org/W7133240682"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"Subseasonal":[1,109],"forecasting":[2,19,26],"(15":[3],"to":[4,64,110,145],"42":[5],"days":[6],"ahead)":[7],"is":[8,60],"socio-economically":[9],"critical":[10],"yet":[11],"remains":[12],"challenging.":[13],"Recently,":[14],"machine-learning":[15],"based":[16],"global":[17],"weather":[18],"could":[20],"show":[21],"superior":[22],"skill":[23],"than":[24],"traditional":[25],"systems.":[27],"Yet,":[28],"training":[29],"these":[30],"data-driven":[31],"AI":[32],"models":[33],"require":[34],"immense":[35],"computational":[36],"resources.":[37],"Here":[38],"we":[39],"demonstrate,":[40],"by":[41],"using":[42],"a":[43,61,71,95,98],"medium-range":[44],"model,":[45,83,100],"GraphCast,":[46],"as":[47,94],"pre-trained":[48],"model":[49,104,113],"and":[50,73,91,119,138,148],"focusing":[51],"on":[52],"reducing":[53],"its":[54],"iterative":[55],"error":[56],"accumulation,":[57],"that":[58,133],"fine-tuning":[59,90,137],"cost-effective":[62],"strategy":[63],"improve":[65,146],"subseasonal":[66],"forecasting.":[67,150],"We":[68],"further":[69],"introduce":[70],"simple":[72],"computationally-inexpensive":[74],"ensemble":[75,112,139],"method:":[76],"creating":[77],"11":[78],"variants":[79],"of":[80,97],"our":[81],"fine-tuned":[82],"FT,":[84],"through":[85],"different":[86],"data":[87],"sampling":[88],"during":[89],"considering":[92],"each":[93],"member":[96],"new":[99],"FT":[101],"ensemble.":[102],"This":[103],"significantly":[105],"surpasses":[106],"the":[107,135],"ECMWF":[108],"Seasonal":[111],"(S2S":[114],"ensemble)":[115],"for":[116,124,127],"week":[117,120],"3":[118],"4":[121],"lead-times,":[122],"notably":[123],"precipitation,":[125],"crucial":[126],"water":[128],"management.":[129],"These":[130],"results":[131],"highlight":[132],"combining":[134],"proposed":[136],"methods":[140],"are":[141],"powerful,":[142],"low-cost":[143],"pathways":[144],"atmospheric":[147],"ocean":[149]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-09T13:22:03.289127","created_date":"2026-09-19T00:00:00"}