{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7212432018","doi":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.10.749909","title":"Carry-over effects and plasticity to temperature shape phenology across life stages and generations","display_name":"Carry-over effects and plasticity to temperature shape phenology across life stages and generations","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-09-13","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7212432018","doi":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.10.749909"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.64898/2026.09.10.749909","doi":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.10.749909","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.10.749909","pdf_url":"https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2026/09/13/2026.09.10.749909.full.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402567","display_name":"bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2750212522","host_organization_name":"Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2750212522"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"bioRxiv","raw_type":"posted-content"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2026/09/13/2026.09.10.749909.full.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5115959029","display_name":"Rona Learmonth","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0003-9724-8132","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0003-9724-8132"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I40120149","display_name":"University of Oxford","ror":"https://ror.org/052gg0110","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Rona Learmonth","raw_affiliation_strings":["Edward Grey Institute of Field Ornithology, Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0003-9724-8132","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Edward Grey Institute of Field Ornithology, Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5140966663","display_name":"L\u00e9a Beaup\u00e8re","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0000-0197-6417","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0000-0197-6417"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I40120149","display_name":"University of Oxford","ror":"https://ror.org/052gg0110","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Lea Beaupere","raw_affiliation_strings":["Edward Grey Institute of Field Ornithology, Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0000-0197-6417","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Edward Grey Institute of Field Ornithology, Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5044809856","display_name":"Ella F. Cole","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2689-946X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2689-946X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I40120149","display_name":"University of Oxford","ror":"https://ror.org/052gg0110","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ella F. Cole","raw_affiliation_strings":["Edward Grey Institute of Field Ornithology, Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2689-946X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Edward Grey Institute of Field Ornithology, Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5073354424","display_name":"Andrea Estand\u00eda","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3895-2141","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3895-2141"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I40120149","display_name":"University of Oxford","ror":"https://ror.org/052gg0110","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Andrea Estand\u00eda","raw_affiliation_strings":["Edward Grey Institute of Field Ornithology, Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3895-2141","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Edward Grey Institute of Field Ornithology, Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5009802656","display_name":"Ben C. Sheldon","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5240-7828","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5240-7828"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I40120149","display_name":"University of Oxford","ror":"https://ror.org/052gg0110","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ben C. Sheldon","raw_affiliation_strings":["Edward Grey Institute of Field Ornithology, Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5240-7828","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Edward Grey Institute of Field Ornithology, Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5115959029"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11056","display_name":"Physiological and biochemical adaptations","score":0.9398999810218811,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2303","display_name":"Ecology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11056","display_name":"Physiological and biochemical adaptations","score":0.9398999810218811,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2303","display_name":"Ecology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10174","display_name":"Animal Behavior and Reproduction","score":0.030799999833106995,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1105","display_name":"Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/11","display_name":"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/1","display_name":"Life Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14378","display_name":"Entomological Studies and Ecology","score":0.017799999564886093,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1105","display_name":"Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/11","display_name":"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/1","display_name":"Life Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/carryover-effects","display_name":"residual effects","score":0.878000020980835},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/phenology","display_name":"phenology","score":0.6600000262260437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/thermal-plasticity","display_name":"thermal plasticity","score":0.9679999947547913},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/winter-moth","display_name":"winter moth","score":0.7049999833106995},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/operophtera-brumata","display_name":"Operophtera brumata","score":0.9990000128746033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/life-cycle","display_name":"life cycle","score":0.40400001406669617},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/developmental-compensation","display_name":"developmental compensation","score":0.6970000267028809},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climate-change","display_name":"climate change","score":0.5590000152587891},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/development-time","display_name":"development time","score":0.45500001311302185},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/holometabolous-insects","display_name":"holometabolous insects","score":0.7820000052452087}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C51417038","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q272737","display_name":"Phenology","level":2,"score":0.8794000148773193},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C13376991","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q587698","display_name":"Ectotherm","level":2,"score":0.6359000205993652},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.6304000020027161},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C79186407","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q472074","display_name":"Plasticity","level":2,"score":0.5828999876976013},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C72958200","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1053008","display_name":"Trophic level","level":2,"score":0.5758000016212463},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18903297","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7150","display_name":"Ecology","level":1,"score":0.5680000185966492},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86878447","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5266812","display_name":"Developmental plasticity","level":3,"score":0.5544999837875366},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132651083","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Climate change","level":2,"score":0.46860000491142273},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62277055","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q295130","display_name":"Phenotypic plasticity","level":2,"score":0.46050000190734863},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C81461190","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q167466","display_name":"Temperate climate","level":2,"score":0.42899999022483826},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139807058","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q352374","display_name":"Adaptation (eye)","level":2,"score":0.36010000109672546},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C66698415","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1139127","display_name":"Life history theory","level":3,"score":0.33570000529289246},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779190337","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1514559","display_name":"Degree day","level":2,"score":0.3138999938964844},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2988516024","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q441195","display_name":"Life span","level":2,"score":0.2854999899864197},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C173758957","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q129270","display_name":"Larva","level":2,"score":0.2833999991416931},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C13474642","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43806","display_name":"Invertebrate","level":2,"score":0.2736999988555908},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86670359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q913288","display_name":"Diapause","level":3,"score":0.258899986743927},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777612826","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1390","display_name":"Insect","level":2,"score":0.25099998712539673},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2992101111","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6545098","display_name":"Life history","level":2,"score":0.2508000135421753}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.64898/2026.09.10.749909","doi":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.10.749909","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.10.749909","pdf_url":"https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2026/09/13/2026.09.10.749909.full.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402567","display_name":"bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2750212522","host_organization_name":"Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2750212522"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"bioRxiv","raw_type":"posted-content"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.64898/2026.09.10.749909","doi":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.10.749909","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.10.749909","pdf_url":"https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2026/09/13/2026.09.10.749909.full.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402567","display_name":"bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2750212522","host_organization_name":"Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2750212522"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"bioRxiv","raw_type":"posted-content"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G595481232","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"EP/X024520/1","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320314731","funder_display_name":"UK Research and Innovation"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320314731","display_name":"UK Research and Innovation","ror":"https://ror.org/001aqnf71"}],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7212432018.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7212432018.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":47,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1971906768","https://openalex.org/W1995635668","https://openalex.org/W2006316822","https://openalex.org/W2021497247","https://openalex.org/W2033676843","https://openalex.org/W2036174256","https://openalex.org/W2040196539","https://openalex.org/W2083217329","https://openalex.org/W2112668825","https://openalex.org/W2112863642","https://openalex.org/W2115604315","https://openalex.org/W2120269655","https://openalex.org/W2126401154","https://openalex.org/W2133501143","https://openalex.org/W2144231774","https://openalex.org/W2153330886","https://openalex.org/W2155502136","https://openalex.org/W2164109186","https://openalex.org/W2172295706","https://openalex.org/W2313291065","https://openalex.org/W2316461436","https://openalex.org/W2333093589","https://openalex.org/W2393712031","https://openalex.org/W2611662853","https://openalex.org/W2745003113","https://openalex.org/W2771475405","https://openalex.org/W2887589664","https://openalex.org/W2914706176","https://openalex.org/W2954735994","https://openalex.org/W3036189373","https://openalex.org/W3093675313","https://openalex.org/W3097536630","https://openalex.org/W3111401632","https://openalex.org/W3153980472","https://openalex.org/W3192126229","https://openalex.org/W4295078147","https://openalex.org/W4382726526","https://openalex.org/W4385118605","https://openalex.org/W4386083774","https://openalex.org/W4387116310","https://openalex.org/W4393110912","https://openalex.org/W4404511930","https://openalex.org/W4412385357","https://openalex.org/W4413930537","https://openalex.org/W7148822866","https://openalex.org/W7150864168","https://openalex.org/W7165111054"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7148822866","https://openalex.org/W2745003113","https://openalex.org/W1995635668","https://openalex.org/W4210845483","https://openalex.org/W2316461436","https://openalex.org/W4412860362","https://openalex.org/W7222800979","https://openalex.org/W6948300088","https://openalex.org/W4412013914","https://openalex.org/W2909956747"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Climate":[0],"change":[1,185],"is":[2],"advancing":[3],"spring":[4],"phenology":[5,52],"in":[6,51,146,175],"temperate":[7],"systems,":[8],"with":[9,76,139],"the":[10,58,63,133,140,147,150,165],"potential":[11],"to":[12,28,39,94,106,121,132],"disrupt":[13],"synchrony":[14,75],"between":[15],"trophic":[16],"levels.":[17],"Predicting":[18],"these":[19,155],"shifts":[20,182],"requires":[21],"understanding":[22],"not":[23],"only":[24],"direct":[25,48,108],"plastic":[26,119,130,162],"responses":[27,120,163],"temperature,":[29],"but":[30],"also":[31],"how":[32],"plasticity":[33,50],"at":[34,42,97],"one":[35],"stage":[36,100,116,136],"carries":[37],"over":[38],"shape":[40],"timing":[41],"subsequent":[43,151],"stages.":[44,199],"We":[45],"experimentally":[46],"quantified":[47],"thermal":[49],"and":[53,101,109,194],"its":[54],"carry-over":[55,110,159,192],"effects":[56,111,124,160,193],"across":[57,87,164,197],"full":[59],"life":[60,99,115,135,152,166,198],"cycle":[61],"of":[62,129,149,180],"winter":[64],"moth":[65],"(Operophtera":[66],"brumata),":[67],"a":[68,81],"holometabolous":[69],"insect":[70],"whose":[71],"fitness":[72],"relies":[73],"on":[74,112,137],"host":[77],"plant":[78],"budburst.":[79],"Using":[80],"fully":[82],"factorial":[83],"split-clutch":[84],"rearing":[85],"experiment":[86],"four":[88],"temperature":[89],"treatments,":[90],"we":[91],"exposed":[92],"individuals":[93],"contrasting":[95],"conditions":[96],"each":[98],"used":[102],"structural":[103],"equation":[104],"modelling":[105],"partition":[107],"phenology.":[113],"Each":[114],"showed":[117],"distinct":[118],"temperature.":[122],"Carry-over":[123],"transmitted":[125],"approximately":[126],"0.38":[127],"days/day":[128],"advance":[131],"next":[134],"average,":[138],"remainder":[141],"absorbed":[142],"by":[143,172],"compensatory":[144,173],"changes":[145,174],"duration":[148],"stage.":[153],"Together,":[154],"results":[156],"show":[157],"that":[158,189],"propagate":[161],"cycle,":[167],"which":[168],"are":[169],"partially":[170],"buffered":[171],"developmental":[176,195],"duration.":[177],"Accurate":[178],"predictions":[179],"phenological":[181],"under":[183],"climate":[184],"therefore":[186],"require":[187],"models":[188],"account":[190],"for":[191],"compensation":[196]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-09T13:22:03.289127","created_date":"2026-09-14T00:00:00"}
