{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7212081734","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2609.06920","title":"ANADEF: A Nested-Permutation Alarm for Dual-Parameter Earthquake Forecasting","display_name":"ANADEF: A Nested-Permutation Alarm for Dual-Parameter Earthquake Forecasting","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-09-07","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7212081734","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2609.06920"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2609.06920","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.06920","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.06920","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["arxiv","datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.06920","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5087025218","display_name":"Hamzeh Mohammadigheymasi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1136-2651","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1136-2651"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I161321875","display_name":"University of Beira Interior","ror":"https://ror.org/03nf36p02","country_code":"PT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I161321875"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4405287608","display_name":"Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo","ror":"https://ror.org/05npta519","country_code":"JP","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4405287608","https://openalex.org/I74801974"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I74801974","display_name":"The University of Tokyo","ror":"https://ror.org/057zh3y96","country_code":"JP","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I74801974"]}],"countries":["JP","PT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mohammadigheymasi, Hamzeh","raw_affiliation_strings":["Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (AORI) , the University of Tokyo , Tokyo , Japan","Department of Computer Sciences , University of Beira Interior , Covilh\u00e3 , Portugal"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (AORI) , the University of Tokyo , Tokyo , Japan","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4405287608","https://openalex.org/I74801974"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Computer Sciences , University of Beira Interior , Covilh\u00e3 , Portugal","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I161321875"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5121665341","display_name":"Muhammed Hossein Mousavi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0003-2282-8757","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0003-2282-8757"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mousavi, Muhammed Hossein","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5135439828","display_name":"Nuno Pombo","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7797-8849","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7797-8849"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I161321875","display_name":"University of Beira Interior","ror":"https://ror.org/03nf36p02","country_code":"PT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I161321875"]}],"countries":["PT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Pombo, Nuno","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Computer Sciences , University of Beira Interior , Covilh\u00e3 , Portugal"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Computer Sciences , University of Beira Interior , Covilh\u00e3 , Portugal","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I161321875"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10110","display_name":"earthquake and tectonic studies","score":0.8389000296592712,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1908","display_name":"Geophysics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10110","display_name":"earthquake and tectonic studies","score":0.8389000296592712,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1908","display_name":"Geophysics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13018","display_name":"Seismology and Earthquake Studies","score":0.0949999988079071,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12424","display_name":"Earthquake Detection and Analysis","score":0.051100000739097595,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1908","display_name":"Geophysics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/earthquake-prediction","display_name":"earthquake prediction","score":0.9179999828338623},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/gutenberg-richter-b-value","display_name":"Gutenberg-Richter b-value","score":0.9200000166893005},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/background-seismicity-rate","display_name":"background seismicity rate","score":0.8009999990463257},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecast-skill-scores","display_name":"forecast skill scores","score":0.46700000762939453},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/threshold-calibration","display_name":"threshold calibration","score":0.5419999957084656},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/zagros-fold-and-thrust-belt","display_name":"Zagros fold belt","score":0.824999988079071}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5153999924659729},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.45019999146461487},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77052588","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q644307","display_name":"Constant false alarm rate","level":2,"score":0.45010000467300415},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165838908","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q736777","display_name":"Calibration","level":2,"score":0.4410000145435333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776836416","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1364844","display_name":"False alarm","level":2,"score":0.43560001254081726},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C83176761","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1394636","display_name":"Induced seismicity","level":2,"score":0.429500013589859},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C7515471","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1936882","display_name":"Stress testing (software)","level":2,"score":0.39480000734329224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C150921843","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1170431","display_name":"Resampling","level":2,"score":0.3928999900817871},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C202269582","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2644277","display_name":"Complementarity (molecular biology)","level":2,"score":0.38499999046325684},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C87007009","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q210832","display_name":"Statistical hypothesis testing","level":2,"score":0.36970001459121704},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C191988596","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q628374","display_name":"Null hypothesis","level":2,"score":0.3490999937057495},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779119184","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q294350","display_name":"ALARM","level":2,"score":0.3447999954223633},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781468064","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1267117","display_name":"Lead time","level":2,"score":0.34299999475479126},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780385302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q367158","display_name":"Protocol (science)","level":3,"score":0.3407999873161316},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C193244246","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5432696","display_name":"False discovery rate","level":3,"score":0.3379000127315521},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C188198153","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1613840","display_name":"Limiting","level":2,"score":0.30410000681877136},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.30309998989105225},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165205528","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q83371","display_name":"Seismology","level":1,"score":0.30300000309944153},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11413529","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8366","display_name":"Algorithm","level":1,"score":0.29840001463890076},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C179518139","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5140297","display_name":"Coding (social sciences)","level":2,"score":0.2879999876022339},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.2662999927997589},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159620131","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1938983","display_name":"Spatial analysis","level":2,"score":0.26420000195503235},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21308566","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7169365","display_name":"Permutation (music)","level":2,"score":0.259799987077713},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127313418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1069","display_name":"Geology","level":0,"score":0.25220000743865967}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2609.06920","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.06920","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.06920","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2609.06920","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2609.06920","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2609.06920","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2609.06920","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.06920","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.06920","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320322667","display_name":"University of Tehran","ror":"https://ror.org/05vf56z40"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334506","display_name":"Canadian Institutes of Health Research","ror":"https://ror.org/01gavpb45"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7212081734.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7212081734.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":10,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1546395146","https://openalex.org/W1845737350","https://openalex.org/W1923991055","https://openalex.org/W2021061571","https://openalex.org/W2028944227","https://openalex.org/W2036529895","https://openalex.org/W2065017756","https://openalex.org/W2137591261","https://openalex.org/W2169318800","https://openalex.org/W7164880987"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7162320613","https://openalex.org/W2995911619","https://openalex.org/W4406134864","https://openalex.org/W2098416773","https://openalex.org/W2025114123","https://openalex.org/W7133566154","https://openalex.org/W2160708044","https://openalex.org/W3154411061","https://openalex.org/W2989415802","https://openalex.org/W4404510799"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Spatially":[0],"resolved":[1],"stress":[2,164],"proxies":[3],"and":[4,79,176,207],"rate-based":[5,208],"seismicity":[6],"models":[7],"are":[8,113,120],"increasingly":[9],"combined":[10],"for":[11,28,86,189,199],"regional":[12],"earthquake":[13],"forecasting,":[14],"yet":[15],"formally":[16],"testing":[17],"their":[18],"non-redundancy":[19],"remains":[20],"largely":[21],"unaddressed.":[22],"We":[23],"present":[24],"the":[25,60,83,116,143],"Nested-Permutation":[26],"Alarm":[27],"Dual-Parameter":[29],"Earthquake":[30],"Forecasting":[31],"(ANADEF)":[32],"pipeline,":[33],"integrating":[34],"a":[35,42,48,72,89,155,194,211],"stress-sensitive":[36,206],"Gutenberg--Richter":[37],"$b$-value":[38,137],"field,":[39],"estimated":[40],"via":[41],"penalized":[43],"2D":[44],"B-spline":[45],"inversion,":[46],"with":[47,75],"stationary":[49],"background":[50],"rate":[51,109],"($\u03bc$)":[52],"from":[53,101],"space--time":[54],"ETAS":[55],"stochastic":[56],"declustering.":[57],"Applied":[58],"to":[59,104,178],"Zagros":[61],"Fold--Thrust":[62],"Belt":[63],"using":[64],"an":[65,183],"18-year":[66],"catalog":[67],"($n=40{,}731$,":[68],"$M_{\\mathrm{N}}\\geq1.5$,":[69],"2006--2024)":[70],"under":[71],"two-stage":[73],"protocol":[74],"non-overlapping":[76],"training":[77],"(2006--2014)":[78],"target":[80],"(2015--2024)":[81],"windows,":[82],"model":[84],"achieves,":[85],"$M_w\\geq5.0$":[87],"($N=55$),":[88],"retrospective":[90],"Area":[91],"Skill":[92],"Score":[93],"$S=0.69$":[94],"(95\\%":[95],"CI:":[96],"0.64--0.73),":[97],"reducing":[98],"alarmed":[99],"area":[100],"$\u03c4\\approx0.38$":[102],"($\u03bc$-only)":[103],"$\u03c4\\approx0.28$":[105],"while":[106,154],"retaining":[107],"hit":[108],"$\u03bd=92.7\\%$;":[110],"since":[111],"thresholds":[112,130,173],"calibrated":[114],"on":[115],"evaluation":[117],"catalog,":[118],"these":[119],"in-sample,":[121],"not":[122,169],"out-of-sample,":[123],"estimates.":[124],"A":[125],"nested":[126],"permutation":[127],"procedure":[128],"re-optimizing":[129],"within":[131],"each":[132],"null":[133,158],"realization":[134],"tests":[135],"whether":[136],"adds":[138],"information":[139,165],"beyond":[140],"$\u03bc$,":[141],"absorbing":[142],"optimization":[144],"bias.":[145],"Significance":[146],"is":[147,166],"null-model":[148],"dependent:":[149],"cell-wise":[150],"randomization":[151],"yields":[152],"$p=0.012$,":[153],"conservative":[156],"spatial-structure-preserving":[157],"gives":[159],"weaker,":[160],"non-significant":[161],"evidence":[162],"($p=0.057$)---incremental":[163],"suggestive":[167],"but":[168],"unambiguously":[170],"established.":[171],"Calibrated":[172],"were":[174],"frozen":[175],"applied":[177],"updated":[179],"2015--2024":[180],"fields,":[181],"generating":[182],"unvalidated,":[184],"forward-looking":[185],"spatial":[186],"alarm":[187],"template":[188,214],"2025--2029.":[190],"These":[191],"results":[192],"establish":[193],"reproducible,":[195],"statistically":[196],"transparent":[197],"methodology":[198],"testing,":[200],"rather":[201],"than":[202],"assuming,":[203],"complementarity":[204],"between":[205],"predictors,":[209],"offering":[210],"candidate":[212],"operational":[213],"pending":[215],"prospective":[216],"validation.":[217]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2026-09-10T00:00:00"}