{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7212059382","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2609.06794","title":"Hourly U.S.-wide flood simulation beyond the limits of traditional and data-driven models","display_name":"Hourly U.S.-wide flood simulation beyond the limits of traditional and data-driven models","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-09-06","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7212059382","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2609.06794"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2609.06794","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.06794","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.06794","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["arxiv","datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.06794","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5151030616","display_name":"Wencong Yang","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I130769515","display_name":"Pennsylvania State University","ror":"https://ror.org/04p491231","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I130769515"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Yang, Wencong","raw_affiliation_strings":["Civil and Environmental Engineering , The Pennsylvania State University , University Park , PA , USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Civil and Environmental Engineering , The Pennsylvania State University , University Park , PA , USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I130769515"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5060418139","display_name":"Leo Lonzarich","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8190-6928","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8190-6928"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I130769515","display_name":"Pennsylvania State University","ror":"https://ror.org/04p491231","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I130769515"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Lonzarich, Leo","raw_affiliation_strings":["Civil and Environmental Engineering , The Pennsylvania State University , University Park , PA , USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Civil and Environmental Engineering , The Pennsylvania State University , University Park , PA , USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I130769515"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5150909710","display_name":"Yalan Song","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I130769515","display_name":"Pennsylvania State University","ror":"https://ror.org/04p491231","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I130769515"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Song, Yalan","raw_affiliation_strings":["Civil and Environmental Engineering , The Pennsylvania State University , University Park , PA , USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Civil and Environmental Engineering , The Pennsylvania State University , University Park , PA , USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I130769515"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5088582121","display_name":"Haoyu Ji","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0007-2150-0791","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0007-2150-0791","https://orcid.org/0009-0004-0721-1385"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I130769515","display_name":"Pennsylvania State University","ror":"https://ror.org/04p491231","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I130769515"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ji, Haoyu","raw_affiliation_strings":["Civil and Environmental Engineering , The Pennsylvania State University , University Park , PA , USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Civil and Environmental Engineering , The Pennsylvania State University , University Park , PA , USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I130769515"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5035529554","display_name":"Ming Pan","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3350-8719","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3350-8719"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I150209017","display_name":"Scripps Institution of Oceanography","ror":"https://ror.org/04v7hvq31","country_code":"US","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I150209017","https://openalex.org/I36258959"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I36258959","display_name":"University of California San Diego","ror":"https://ror.org/0168r3w48","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I36258959"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Pan, Ming","raw_affiliation_strings":["Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes , Scripps Institution of Oceanography , University of California San Diego , La Jolla , CA , USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes , Scripps Institution of Oceanography , University of California San Diego , La Jolla , CA , USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I150209017","https://openalex.org/I36258959"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5031113849","display_name":"Kathryn Lawson","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0075-7911","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0075-7911"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I130769515","display_name":"Pennsylvania State University","ror":"https://ror.org/04p491231","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I130769515"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Lawson, Kathryn","raw_affiliation_strings":["Civil and Environmental Engineering , The Pennsylvania State University , University Park , PA , USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Civil and Environmental Engineering , The Pennsylvania State University , University Park , PA , USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I130769515"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5146823412","display_name":"Chaopeng Shen","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I130769515","display_name":"Pennsylvania State University","ror":"https://ror.org/04p491231","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I130769515"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Shen, Chaopeng","raw_affiliation_strings":["Civil and Environmental Engineering , The Pennsylvania State University , University Park , PA , USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Civil and Environmental Engineering , The Pennsylvania State University , University Park , PA , USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I130769515"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11490","display_name":"Hydrological Forecasting Using AI","score":0.4625999927520752,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2305","display_name":"Environmental Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11490","display_name":"Hydrological Forecasting Using AI","score":0.4625999927520752,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2305","display_name":"Environmental Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10330","display_name":"Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies","score":0.4507000148296356,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2312","display_name":"Water Science and Technology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10930","display_name":"Flood Risk Assessment and Management","score":0.06769999861717224,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/national-water-model","display_name":"National Water Model","score":0.7940000295639038},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/infiltration-excess","display_name":"infiltration excess","score":0.796999990940094},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/operational-flood-forecasting","display_name":"operational flood forecasting","score":0.550000011920929},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/contiguous-united-states","display_name":"contiguous United States","score":0.7260000109672546}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.7508999705314636},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C74256435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q134052","display_name":"Flood myth","level":2,"score":0.6714000105857849},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.6521000266075134},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105306849","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q81054","display_name":"Storm","level":2,"score":0.5526999831199646},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C183195422","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3409303","display_name":"Flood forecasting","level":3,"score":0.5408999919891357},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2983637589","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1066823","display_name":"National weather service","level":2,"score":0.4693000018596649},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126197015","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1586683","display_name":"Hydrological modelling","level":2,"score":0.42250001430511475},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C1284942","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1929501","display_name":"Water level","level":2,"score":0.3422999978065491},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C76886044","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2883300","display_name":"Hydrology (agriculture)","level":2,"score":0.33970001339912415},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777211547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17141490","display_name":"Training (meteorology)","level":2,"score":0.3361999988555908},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153400128","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3150731","display_name":"Infiltration (HVAC)","level":2,"score":0.33070001006126404},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C108215451","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7263963","display_name":"Simulation modeling","level":2,"score":0.30889999866485596},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C118365302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4817115","display_name":"Atmospheric model","level":2,"score":0.29190000891685486},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C122383733","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q865920","display_name":"Approximation error","level":2,"score":0.2888000011444092},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49204034","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52139","display_name":"Climatology","level":1,"score":0.26919999718666077},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3019813237","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q65089264","display_name":"Model validation","level":2,"score":0.2556000053882599},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2986605239","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q925667","display_name":"Numerical models","level":3,"score":0.25119999051094055}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2609.06794","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.06794","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.06794","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2609.06794","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2609.06794","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2609.06794","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2609.06794","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.06794","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.06794","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","score":0.685699999332428,"display_name":"Climate action"},{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/6","score":0.6618000268936157,"display_name":"Clean water and sanitation"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7212059382.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7212059382.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":65,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1949692868","https://openalex.org/W1999098265","https://openalex.org/W2001317094","https://openalex.org/W2001602455","https://openalex.org/W2033904036","https://openalex.org/W2036983007","https://openalex.org/W2068480436","https://openalex.org/W2099376963","https://openalex.org/W2138763184","https://openalex.org/W2152977202","https://openalex.org/W2155466098","https://openalex.org/W2176419970","https://openalex.org/W2475748584","https://openalex.org/W2805635228","https://openalex.org/W2947544967","https://openalex.org/W2972064142","https://openalex.org/W2983385682","https://openalex.org/W3034385753","https://openalex.org/W3044511373","https://openalex.org/W3092762910","https://openalex.org/W3160222453","https://openalex.org/W3179532669","https://openalex.org/W4252684946","https://openalex.org/W4283811973","https://openalex.org/W4292429088","https://openalex.org/W4296344227","https://openalex.org/W4311646499","https://openalex.org/W4362669418","https://openalex.org/W4382866390","https://openalex.org/W4383695617","https://openalex.org/W4390099475","https://openalex.org/W4390660406","https://openalex.org/W4390820286","https://openalex.org/W4392984771","https://openalex.org/W4393540625","https://openalex.org/W4394753955","https://openalex.org/W4396897549","https://openalex.org/W4397293650","https://openalex.org/W4399442871","https://openalex.org/W4402229258","https://openalex.org/W4403543982","https://openalex.org/W4408315215","https://openalex.org/W4408872072","https://openalex.org/W4409376299","https://openalex.org/W4411346028","https://openalex.org/W4412089782","https://openalex.org/W4412645231","https://openalex.org/W4412791846","https://openalex.org/W4413753325","https://openalex.org/W4414570709","https://openalex.org/W4414947999","https://openalex.org/W4415205363","https://openalex.org/W4415786246","https://openalex.org/W4416010022","https://openalex.org/W4416190373","https://openalex.org/W4416385780","https://openalex.org/W4416659930","https://openalex.org/W6911981834","https://openalex.org/W6948388484","https://openalex.org/W6948439787","https://openalex.org/W7124581942","https://openalex.org/W7128597648","https://openalex.org/W7128689107","https://openalex.org/W7163524337","https://openalex.org/W7216247960"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7204447384","https://openalex.org/W4411691917","https://openalex.org/W7124719699","https://openalex.org/W7161231587","https://openalex.org/W4409376299","https://openalex.org/W2945377681","https://openalex.org/W4416176292","https://openalex.org/W4416385780","https://openalex.org/W4392598899","https://openalex.org/W2380062434"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"As":[0],"increasingly-damaging":[1],"floods":[2,91],"can":[3],"strike":[4],"within":[5],"hours":[6,82],"of":[7,50],"a":[8,25,145,176],"storm":[9],"and":[10,37,75,94,134,150],"in":[11],"ungauged":[12],"reaches,":[13],"hourly":[14,58,107,140,151],"network-wide":[15],"simulation":[16],"has":[17],"become":[18],"critical":[19],"societal":[20],"infrastructure.":[21],"Here":[22],"we":[23],"demonstrate":[24],"multi-timescale":[26],"physics-embedded":[27],"learning":[28],"model":[29,55],"which":[30],"outperforms":[31],"the":[32,51,54,69,160,170],"United":[33],"States'":[34],"operational":[35,70,99,178],"system":[36],"surpasses":[38],"AI-based":[39],"systems":[40],"at":[41,61,162],"flood":[42,183],"peaks.":[43],"Covering":[44],"more":[45,89,96],"than":[46,92,97],"800,000":[47],"river":[48],"reaches":[49],"conterminous":[52],"U.S.,":[53],"elevates":[56],"median":[57,165],"Nash-Sutcliffe":[59],"efficiency":[60],"2,831":[62],"gauges":[63],"to":[64,83,137],"0.683":[65],"from":[66,80],"0.461":[67],"for":[68,124,155,169,181],"National":[71,172],"Water":[72,173],"Model":[73,174],"v3.0,":[74],"narrows":[76],"flood-peak":[77],"timing":[78],"errors":[79],"7-8":[81],"4.5-6":[84],"hours.":[85],"dHBV2.0MTS-MC":[86],"captures":[87],"33%":[88],">=50-year":[90],"NWM3.0":[93],"159%":[95],"an":[98],"LSTM":[100],"baseline.":[101],"Against":[102],"recent":[103],"AI":[104],"models,":[105],"overall":[106],"skill":[108],"is":[109,114],"comparable":[110],"while":[111],"rare-flood":[112],"accuracy":[113,179],"distinctly":[115],"higher,":[116],"with":[117],"relative":[118],"peak-magnitude":[119],"error":[120],"reduced":[121],"by":[122],"34%":[123],">=100-year":[125],"floods.":[126],"It":[127],"combines":[128],"long-term":[129],"hydrologic":[130],"context,":[131],"short-term":[132],"shocks,":[133],"infiltration":[135],"excess":[136],"resolve":[138],"extraordinary":[139],"peaks":[141],"not":[142],"visible":[143],"on":[144],"daily":[146],"plot.":[147],"Process-model":[148],"parameters":[149],"discharge":[152],"are":[153],"produced":[154],"every":[156],"reach,":[157],"seamlessly":[158],"covering":[159],"continent":[161],"7.2":[163],"km2":[164],"resolution.":[166],"This":[167],"candidate":[168],"next-generation":[171],"sets":[175],"new":[177],"level":[180],"national-scale":[182],"prediction.":[184]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2026-09-10T00:00:00"}
