{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7208828505","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22339329","title":"Did Cyber Futures Scenarios Get It Right? A Retrospective Audit of 120 Explicit Predictions at Cybersecurity Conferences, 2005-2018","display_name":"Did Cyber Futures Scenarios Get It Right? A Retrospective Audit of 120 Explicit Predictions at Cybersecurity Conferences, 2005-2018","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-08-24","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7208828505","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22339329"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.22339329","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22339329","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22339329","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22339329","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5102806655","display_name":"Federico Pacheco","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2803-1162","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2803-1162"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I128590013","display_name":"National Technological University","ror":"https://ror.org/04t730v47","country_code":"AR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I128590013"]}],"countries":["AR"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Pacheco, Federico","raw_affiliation_strings":["Universidad Tecnol\u00f3gica Nacional"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2803-1162","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Universidad Tecnol\u00f3gica Nacional","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I128590013"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5102806655"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I128590013"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10734","display_name":"Information and Cyber Security","score":0.8187999725341797,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1710","display_name":"Information Systems"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10734","display_name":"Information and Cyber Security","score":0.8187999725341797,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1710","display_name":"Information Systems"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14345","display_name":"Scientific Research and Philosophical Inquiry","score":0.030500000342726707,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1405","display_name":"Management of Technology and Innovation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12519","display_name":"Cybercrime and Law Enforcement Studies","score":0.0210999995470047,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3308","display_name":"Law"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/future-scenarios","display_name":"future scenarios","score":0.46299999952316284},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecast-accuracy","display_name":"forecast accuracy","score":0.5109999775886536},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/scenario-planning","display_name":"scenario planning","score":0.4300000071525574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/agenda-setting","display_name":"agenda setting","score":0.3619999885559082}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199521495","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q181487","display_name":"Audit","level":2,"score":0.6624000072479248},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C1370556","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q81009","display_name":"Rhetoric","level":2,"score":0.5899999737739563},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C106306483","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q183984","display_name":"Futures contract","level":2,"score":0.5475999712944031},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C38652104","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3510521","display_name":"Computer security","level":1,"score":0.490200012922287},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.48739999532699585},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162118730","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1128453","display_name":"Actuarial science","level":1,"score":0.4745999872684479},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177148314","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q170084","display_name":"Generalization","level":2,"score":0.4422999918460846},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121955636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4116214","display_name":"Accounting","level":1,"score":0.3871000111103058},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C198036527","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2074634","display_name":"Black swan theory","level":2,"score":0.3652999997138977},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777267654","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3519023","display_name":"Test (biology)","level":2,"score":0.35670000314712524},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C80958533","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1047174","display_name":"Audit trail","level":3,"score":0.3345000147819519},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.32330000400543213},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39549134","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q133080","display_name":"Public relations","level":1,"score":0.3151000142097473},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159176650","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43261","display_name":"Horizon","level":2,"score":0.2994000017642975},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165609540","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1172486","display_name":"Data breach","level":2,"score":0.28369998931884766},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.28209999203681946},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779756789","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q28549308","display_name":"Fake news","level":2,"score":0.28200000524520874},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42475967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194292","display_name":"Operations research","level":1,"score":0.2766000032424927},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2909264111","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q740419","display_name":"Financial Audit","level":3,"score":0.2732999920845032},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778137410","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2732820","display_name":"Government (linguistics)","level":2,"score":0.27309998869895935},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2522767166","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2374463","display_name":"Data science","level":1,"score":0.2687999904155731}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":4,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.22339329","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22339329","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22339329","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.22339330","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22339330","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22339330","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article-journal"},{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.22924762","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22924762","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22924762","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.23341844","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23341844","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23341844","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.22339329","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22339329","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22339329","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7208820737","https://openalex.org/W4309374896","https://openalex.org/W6960095540","https://openalex.org/W7017331795","https://openalex.org/W2906909405","https://openalex.org/W7095595309","https://openalex.org/W2986870226","https://openalex.org/W6912539218","https://openalex.org/W2107043762","https://openalex.org/W7220137938"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Background.":[0],"Cybersecurity":[1],"conferences":[2,90],"influence":[3],"professional":[4],"and":[5,32,45,66],"media":[6],"agendas,":[7],"yet":[8],"their":[9,18,77],"claims":[10],"about":[11],"the":[12,41,71],"future":[13],"are":[14],"seldom":[15],"evaluated":[16],"after":[17],"stated":[19],"horizon":[20],"has":[21],"elapsed.":[22],"Methods.":[23],"We":[24],"audited":[25],"120":[26],"explicit":[27,119],"predictions":[28,59],"made":[29],"between":[30],"2005":[31],"2018":[33],"in":[34],"36":[35],"sessions":[36],"at":[37],"Black":[38],"Hat":[39],"USA,":[40],"Chaos":[42],"Communication":[43],"Congress,":[44],"Virus":[46],"Bulletin.":[47],"The":[48,86,108],"outcome-blind":[49],"corpus":[50,87],"was":[51],"frozen":[52],"before":[53],"outcomes":[54],"were":[55,60,63,68],"assessed.":[56],"Results.":[57],"Fifty-four":[58],"fulfilled,":[61,65],"35":[62],"not":[64],"31":[67],"indeterminate.":[69],"Among":[70],"89":[72],"resolvable":[73],"predictions,":[74],"54":[75],"met":[76],"threshold":[78],"(60.7%;":[79],"descriptive":[80],"95%":[81],"Wilson":[82],"interval:":[83],"50.3-70.2%).":[84],"Interpretation.":[85],"suggests":[88],"that":[89],"functioned":[91],"reasonably":[92],"as":[93,99],"topic":[94],"radar,":[95],"but":[96],"less":[97],"well":[98],"instruments":[100],"for":[101,114],"forecasting":[102],"mechanism,":[103],"magnitude,":[104],"prevalence,":[105],"or":[106],"timing.":[107],"contribution":[109],"is":[110],"a":[111],"traceable":[112],"method":[113],"subjecting":[115],"prospective":[116],"rhetoric":[117],"to":[118],"conditions":[120],"of":[121],"error.":[122]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-08T12:12:28.789561","created_date":"2026-09-06T00:00:00"}
