{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7208748172","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2609.03210","title":"Improving global precipitation forecasts with an AI weather model trained on satellite observations","display_name":"Improving global precipitation forecasts with an AI weather model trained on satellite observations","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-09-02","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7208748172","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2609.03210"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2609.03210","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.03210","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.03210","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["arxiv","datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.03210","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5114125101","display_name":"Julian F. Schmitt","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1291425158","display_name":"Google (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/00njsd438","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1291425158","https://openalex.org/I4210128969"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Schmitt, Julian F.","raw_affiliation_strings":["X , The Moonshot Factory , Google LLC , Mountain View , CA , USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"X , The Moonshot Factory , Google LLC , Mountain View , CA , USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1291425158"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5011940817","display_name":"Bertrand L. Delorme","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1395-3583","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1395-3583"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1291425158","display_name":"Google (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/00njsd438","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1291425158","https://openalex.org/I4210128969"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Delorme, Bertrand","raw_affiliation_strings":["X , The Moonshot Factory , Google LLC , Mountain View , CA , USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"X , The Moonshot Factory , Google LLC , Mountain View , CA , USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1291425158"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5102816069","display_name":"Robert C King","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0006-1944-7787","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0006-1944-7787"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1291425158","display_name":"Google (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/00njsd438","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1291425158","https://openalex.org/I4210128969"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"King, Robert C.","raw_affiliation_strings":["X , The Moonshot Factory , Google LLC , Mountain View , CA , USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"X , The Moonshot Factory , Google LLC , Mountain View , CA , USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1291425158"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5150025557","display_name":"Yashica Patodia","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1291425158","display_name":"Google (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/00njsd438","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1291425158","https://openalex.org/I4210128969"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Patodia, Yashica","raw_affiliation_strings":["Google,"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Google,","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1291425158"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5027937412","display_name":"Tapio Schneider","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5687-2287","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5687-2287"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I122411786","display_name":"California Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/05dxps055","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I122411786"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1291425158","display_name":"Google (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/00njsd438","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1291425158","https://openalex.org/I4210128969"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Schneider, Tapio","raw_affiliation_strings":["Environmental Science and Engineering , California Institute of Technology , Pasadena , CA , USA","Google,"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Environmental Science and Engineering , California Institute of Technology , Pasadena , CA , USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I122411786"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Google,","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1291425158"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5053240426","display_name":"Aditi Sheshadri","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9828-9484","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9828-9484"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1291425158","display_name":"Google (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/00njsd438","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1291425158","https://openalex.org/I4210128969"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I97018004","display_name":"Stanford University","ror":"https://ror.org/00f54p054","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I97018004"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Sheshadri, Aditi","raw_affiliation_strings":["Earth System Science , Stanford University , Stanford , CA , USA","Google LLC , Mountain View , CA , USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Earth System Science , Stanford University , Stanford , CA , USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I97018004"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Google LLC , Mountain View , CA , USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1291425158"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5042779287","display_name":"Ravi Jain","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5028-8087","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5028-8087"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1291425158","display_name":"Google (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/00njsd438","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1291425158","https://openalex.org/I4210128969"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jain, Ravi","raw_affiliation_strings":["X , The Moonshot Factory , Google LLC , Mountain View , CA , USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"X , The Moonshot Factory , Google LLC , Mountain View , CA , USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1291425158"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10466","display_name":"Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations","score":0.9560999870300293,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10466","display_name":"Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations","score":0.9560999870300293,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11490","display_name":"Hydrological Forecasting Using AI","score":0.021199999377131462,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2305","display_name":"Environmental Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11234","display_name":"Precipitation Measurement and Analysis","score":0.014600000344216824,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/rainfall-prediction","display_name":"precipitation forecasting","score":0.8830000162124634},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/graph-transformer","display_name":"graph transformer","score":0.7390000224113464},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/medium-range-forecasting","display_name":"medium-range forecasting","score":0.6790000200271606},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-forecasting","display_name":"probabilistic forecasting","score":0.7860000133514404},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/satellite-precipitation-observations","display_name":"satellite precipitation observations","score":0.6439999938011169},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/observational-bias","display_name":"observational bias","score":0.3709999918937683},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/extreme-rainfall","display_name":"extreme rainfall","score":0.8339999914169312},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/tropical-storms","display_name":"tropical storms","score":0.9539999961853027},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/drizzle","display_name":"drizzle","score":0.9620000123977661},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/fine-tuning","display_name":"fine-tuning","score":0.6930000185966492}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107054158","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25257","display_name":"Precipitation","level":2,"score":0.7387999892234802},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C140178040","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q18402512","display_name":"Quantitative precipitation forecast","level":3,"score":0.715499997138977},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.6571000218391418},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.6189000010490417},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49204034","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52139","display_name":"Climatology","level":1,"score":0.5679000020027161},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C170061395","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5468164","display_name":"Forecast skill","level":2,"score":0.5353000164031982},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C63984324","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q211521","display_name":"Drizzle","level":3,"score":0.5051000118255615},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105306849","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q81054","display_name":"Storm","level":2,"score":0.4903999865055084},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C37505551","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1453537","display_name":"Model output statistics","level":3,"score":0.43130001425743103},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C75398719","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7268938","display_name":"Quantitative precipitation estimation","level":3,"score":0.4291999936103821},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C147947694","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q837552","display_name":"Numerical weather prediction","level":2,"score":0.4016000032424927},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777211547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17141490","display_name":"Training (meteorology)","level":2,"score":0.39559999108314514},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C35405484","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4967066","display_name":"Brier score","level":2,"score":0.3560999929904938},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21001229","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q182868","display_name":"Weather forecasting","level":2,"score":0.3553999960422516},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C122282355","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7246855","display_name":"Probabilistic forecasting","level":3,"score":0.34689998626708984},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C102561126","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17164865","display_name":"Tropical cyclone forecast model","level":3,"score":0.31060001254081726},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2987469573","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q182868","display_name":"Weather prediction","level":2,"score":0.31049999594688416},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205537798","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1277161","display_name":"Extreme weather","level":3,"score":0.2996000051498413},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781013037","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1433331","display_name":"Nowcasting","level":2,"score":0.28949999809265137},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C187460315","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q741507","display_name":"Severe weather","level":3,"score":0.2797999978065491},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C163109420","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q287011","display_name":"Global Forecast System","level":3,"score":0.25619998574256897},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C114289077","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3284399","display_name":"Statistical model","level":2,"score":0.25270000100135803}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2609.03210","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.03210","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.03210","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2609.03210","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2609.03210","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2609.03210","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2609.03210","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.03210","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.03210","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Climate action","score":0.9786999821662903,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7208748172.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7208748172.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7172484127","https://openalex.org/W7135226277","https://openalex.org/W7208717596","https://openalex.org/W7171822430","https://openalex.org/W7220704112","https://openalex.org/W4405561537","https://openalex.org/W4383371099","https://openalex.org/W7135178807","https://openalex.org/W4411805822","https://openalex.org/W4399100033"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Precipitation":[0],"forecasts":[1,58],"shape":[2],"decision-making":[3],"across":[4],"the":[5,140,160,180],"global":[6,106,141],"economy,":[7],"particularly":[8],"in":[9,34,51,116,169],"sectors":[10],"such":[11,17],"as":[12,18],"agriculture.":[13],"However,":[14],"unlike":[15],"variables":[16],"temperature,":[19],"precipitation":[20,100,168,191],"is":[21],"highly":[22],"intermittent":[23],"and":[24,73,111,177],"localized,":[25],"making":[26],"it":[27],"difficult":[28],"to":[29,42,56,173],"forecast.":[30],"While":[31],"recent":[32],"advances":[33],"AI":[35],"weather":[36,96],"prediction":[37],"systems":[38],"have":[39],"enabled":[40],"them":[41],"surpass":[43],"physical":[44,182],"models":[45,70],"on":[46,98],"globally":[47],"averaged":[48],"metrics,":[49],"improvements":[50],"mean":[52],"error":[53],"rarely":[54],"translate":[55],"actionable":[57],"of":[59,68,153,164],"severe":[60],"flooding":[61],"or":[62],"dry":[63],"crop":[64],"fields.":[65],"Furthermore,":[66],"most":[67,161],"these":[69],"are":[71],"trained":[72],"evaluated":[74],"against":[75],"a":[76,150],"reanalysis":[77],"data":[78,192],"product,":[79],"ERA5,":[80],"which":[81],"has":[82],"well-known":[83],"biases.":[84],"Here":[85],"we":[86],"retrain":[87],"AIFS,":[88],"ECMWF's":[89],"widely-used,":[90],"open-source":[91],"operational":[92],"0.25\u00b0":[93],"probabilistic":[94,107],"graph-transformer":[95],"model,":[97,103,183],"satellite-based":[99],"observations.":[101],"Our":[102,185],"Laxmi,":[104],"improves":[105],"accuracy":[108],"by":[109,123,147],"19%":[110],"resolves":[112],"systematic":[113],"distributional":[114],"biases":[115],"ERA5.":[117],"Specifically,":[118],"Laxmi":[119,158],"reduces":[120],"drizzle":[121],"overprediction":[122],"33%":[124],"for":[125,175,179],"amounts":[126],"less":[127],"than":[128],"3":[129],"mm":[130,166],"per":[131],"day.":[132],"It":[133],"also":[134],"mitigates":[135],"extreme":[136],"rainfall":[137],"underprediction,":[138],"improving":[139],"95th":[142],"percentile":[143],"Brier":[144],"skill":[145],"score":[146],"57%.":[148],"Across":[149],"case":[151],"study":[152],"10":[154],"Indian":[155],"tropical":[156],"storms,":[157],"delivered":[159],"accurate":[162],"forecast":[163],"150":[165],"event-total":[167],"7":[170],"events,":[171],"compared":[172],"1":[174],"AIFS":[176],"2":[178],"leading":[181],"IFS.":[184],"results":[186],"demonstrate":[187],"that":[188],"incorporating":[189],"observation-based":[190],"directly":[193],"into":[194],"training":[195],"can":[196],"substantially":[197],"improve":[198],"forecasts.":[199]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-10-28T10:33:24.094632","created_date":"2026-09-05T00:00:00"}