{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7206217862","doi":"https://doi.org/10.31223/x5r219","title":"Bidirectional enhanced quantile gated recurrent unit for short-term forecasting of PM2.5 with emphasis on extreme events in Sri Lanka","display_name":"Bidirectional enhanced quantile gated recurrent unit for short-term forecasting of PM2.5 with emphasis on extreme events in Sri Lanka","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-09-02","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7206217862","doi":"https://doi.org/10.31223/x5r219"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.31223/x5r219","doi":"https://doi.org/10.31223/x5r219","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.31223/x5r219","pdf_url":"https://eartharxiv.org/repository/object/14766/download/25672/","source":null,"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://eartharxiv.org/repository/object/14766/download/25672/","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5149346128","display_name":"Anjana Jayasinghe","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3088-9571","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3088-9571"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Anjana Jayasinghe","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3088-9571","affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5065266082","display_name":"C. D. Tilakaratne","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0330-845X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0330-845X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I90678064","display_name":"University of Colombo","ror":"https://ror.org/02phn5242","country_code":"LK","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I90678064"]}],"countries":["LK"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Chandima Tilakaratne","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Statistics , Faculty of Science , University of Colombo , Colombo , Sri Lanka"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0330-845X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Statistics , Faculty of Science , University of Colombo , Colombo , Sri Lanka","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I90678064"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12120","display_name":"Air Quality Monitoring and Forecasting","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2305","display_name":"Environmental Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12120","display_name":"Air Quality Monitoring and Forecasting","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2305","display_name":"Environmental Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10190","display_name":"Air Quality and Health Impacts","score":0.00019999999494757503,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2307","display_name":"Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11344","display_name":"Traffic Prediction and Management Techniques","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3313","display_name":"Transportation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/pm2-5-prediction","display_name":"PM2.5 forecasting","score":0.9660000205039978},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/air-quality-forecasting","display_name":"air quality forecasting","score":0.8420000076293945},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/extreme-pollution-events","display_name":"extreme pollution events","score":0.8069999814033508},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/quantile-regression","display_name":"quantile regression","score":0.8009999990463257},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bidirectional-gated-recurrent-unit","display_name":"bidirectional gated recurrent unit","score":0.796999990940094},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/short-term-forecasting","display_name":"short-term forecasting","score":0.6389999985694885},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/peak-over-threshold-method","display_name":"peak over threshold method","score":0.7279999852180481},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/colombo","display_name":"Colombo","score":0.6930000185966492},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/kandy","display_name":"Kandy","score":0.9169999957084656},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sri-lanka","display_name":"Sri Lanka","score":0.8560000061988831}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C118671147","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q578714","display_name":"Quantile","level":2,"score":0.7824000120162964},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.5669000148773193},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C191178318","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2256906","display_name":"Thresholding","level":3,"score":0.4138999879360199},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C63817138","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3455889","display_name":"Quantile regression","level":2,"score":0.40070000290870667},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.3935999870300293},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780150128","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21948731","display_name":"Extreme learning machine","level":3,"score":0.38600000739097595},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.3831000030040741},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C108583219","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q197536","display_name":"Deep learning","level":2,"score":0.3582000136375427},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C147581598","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q729429","display_name":"Extreme value theory","level":2,"score":0.3328999876976013},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.3215999901294708},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C110121322","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q865811","display_name":"Distribution (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.3037000000476837},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.2928999960422516},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126314574","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2364111","display_name":"Air quality index","level":2,"score":0.289000004529953},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151406439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186588","display_name":"Time series","level":2,"score":0.2840999960899353},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177454536","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q578290","display_name":"Emphasis (telecommunications)","level":2,"score":0.28200000524520874},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C14036430","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3736076","display_name":"Function (biology)","level":2,"score":0.28049999475479126},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779530757","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1207505","display_name":"Quality (philosophy)","level":2,"score":0.258899986743927},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C133514767","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5532448","display_name":"Generalized Pareto distribution","level":3,"score":0.2515000104904175},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139945424","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1940696","display_name":"Mean squared error","level":2,"score":0.2515000104904175}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.31223/x5r219","doi":"https://doi.org/10.31223/x5r219","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.31223/x5r219","pdf_url":"https://eartharxiv.org/repository/object/14766/download/25672/","source":null,"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},{"id":"pmh:oai:EA:id:14766","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://eartharxiv.org/repository/object/14766/download/25672/","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402614","display_name":"EarthArXiv (California Digital Library)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2801248553","host_organization_name":"California Digital Library","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2801248553"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"EarthArXiv","raw_type":"PREPRINTS"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.31223/x5r219","doi":"https://doi.org/10.31223/x5r219","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.31223/x5r219","pdf_url":"https://eartharxiv.org/repository/object/14766/download/25672/","source":null,"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"posted-content"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.6618000268936157,"display_name":"Clean water and sanitation","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/6"},{"score":0.5351999998092651,"display_name":"Climate action","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13"},{"score":0.5142999887466431,"display_name":"Sustainable cities and communities","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/11"},{"score":0.4000000059604645,"display_name":"Good health and well-being","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320326055","display_name":"University of Colombo","ror":"https://ror.org/02phn5242"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7206217862.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7206217862.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":25,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W2019199024","https://openalex.org/W2036983007","https://openalex.org/W2075965721","https://openalex.org/W2131774270","https://openalex.org/W2157331557","https://openalex.org/W2178225550","https://openalex.org/W2194775991","https://openalex.org/W2224823553","https://openalex.org/W2773625660","https://openalex.org/W2911964244","https://openalex.org/W3016556113","https://openalex.org/W3037932933","https://openalex.org/W3165356482","https://openalex.org/W4241653265","https://openalex.org/W4283379645","https://openalex.org/W4307816161","https://openalex.org/W4319335604","https://openalex.org/W4365443756","https://openalex.org/W4384283312","https://openalex.org/W4385650420","https://openalex.org/W4389939045","https://openalex.org/W4392876584","https://openalex.org/W4399199073","https://openalex.org/W4404756614","https://openalex.org/W4405469731"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7211890795","https://openalex.org/W4282555960","https://openalex.org/W4400363782","https://openalex.org/W4396890710","https://openalex.org/W2955613755","https://openalex.org/W7164148871","https://openalex.org/W3003133065","https://openalex.org/W7060941703","https://openalex.org/W4311343520","https://openalex.org/W6907520453"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Air":[0],"quality":[1],"forecasting":[2,33],"is":[3,115,135,144,153,172,180],"critical":[4],"for":[5,31,73,182,267,277,287],"mitigating":[6],"the":[7,23,76,79,83,94,101,111,118,123,138,187,192,207,264],"health":[8],"impacts":[9],"of":[10,34,82,97,110,141,163,249,253],"fine":[11],"particulate":[12],"matter":[13],"(PM2.5).":[14],"This":[15,44,200],"study":[16],"introduces":[17],"a":[18,106,147,167,177,270],"hybrid":[19],"deep":[20,234],"learning":[21,235,240],"model,":[22,150],"bidirectional":[24],"enhanced":[25],"quantile":[26,89,119],"gated":[27],"recurrent":[28],"unit":[29],"(BEQ-GRU),":[30],"short-term":[32],"PM2.5":[35,50],"concentrations":[36,227],"with":[37,186,284],"explicit":[38],"emphasis":[39],"on":[40],"extreme":[41,255],"pollution":[42,98],"occurrences.":[43],"model":[45],"was":[46,274],"applied":[47],"to":[48,92,217],"forecast":[49,179],"levels":[51],"in":[52],"two":[53],"high-risk":[54],"Sri":[55],"Lankan":[56],"cities,":[57],"Colombo":[58],"and":[59,63,126,151,165,225,233,251,291],"Kandy,":[60],"delivering":[61],"24-hour":[62,250],"48-hour":[64,254],"ahead":[65],"forecasts.":[66],"Unlike":[67],"conventional":[68,243],"point-estimation":[69],"models":[70,236],"that":[71,117,155,175],"optimise":[72],"mean":[74],"accuracy,":[75],"BEQ-GRU":[77,262],"targets":[78],"upper":[80],"tail":[81],"conditional":[84,124],"distribution":[85,96],"through":[86,146],"an":[87,160],"asymmetric":[88],"objective":[90],"engineered":[91],"capture":[93],"heavy-tailed":[95],"exceedances.":[99],"Beyond":[100],"architecture,":[102],"this":[103],"paper":[104],"contributes":[105],"formal":[107],"mathematical":[108],"treatment":[109],"method:":[112],"(i)":[113],"it":[114,152],"proved":[116,154],"loss":[120],"function":[121],"recovers":[122],"quantile,":[125],"its":[127],"19:1":[128],"gradient":[129],"asymmetry":[130],"at":[131,257],"\u03c4":[132],"=":[133,198],"0.95":[134],"quantified;":[136],"(ii)":[137],"\u201csmoothing":[139],"effect\u201d":[140],"mean-optimal":[142],"training":[143],"characterised":[145],"peaks-over-threshold":[148],"(POT)":[149],"mean-trained":[156],"detectors":[157],"systematically":[158],"miss":[159],"identifiable":[161],"band":[162],"exceedances;":[164],"(iii)":[166],"decision-theoretic":[168],"result":[169],"(Theorem":[170],"1)":[171],"established,":[173],"showing":[174],"thresholding":[176],"\u03c4-quantile":[178],"Bayes-optimal":[181],"cost-sensitive":[183],"exceedance":[184],"alarms,":[185],"optimal":[188],"level":[189],"fixed":[190],"by":[191],"public-health":[193,292],"cost":[194],"ratio":[195],"as":[196,228],"\u03c4*":[197],"CFN/(CFN+CFP).":[199],"identity":[201],"explains,":[202],"rather":[203],"than":[204,247],"merely":[205],"reports,":[206],"observed":[208],"high-sensitivity,":[209],"zero-false-alarm":[210],"regime.":[211],"Hourly":[212],"data":[213],"from":[214],"October":[215],"2022":[216],"December":[218],"2023":[219],"were":[220,237],"analysed,":[221],"incorporating":[222],"meteorological":[223],"variables":[224],"co-pollutant":[226],"predictors.":[229],"Statistical,":[230],"machine":[231],"learning,":[232],"compared.":[238],"Deep":[239],"consistently":[241],"outperformed":[242],"approaches,":[244],"capturing":[245],"more":[246],"70%":[248],"60%":[252],"spikes":[256],"both":[258],"stations.":[259],"The":[260,279],"proposed":[261],"achieved":[263],"best":[265],"performance":[266],"Colombo,":[268],"while":[269],"standard":[271],"Bidirectional":[272],"GRU":[273],"most":[275],"effective":[276],"Kandy.":[278],"framework":[280],"can":[281],"be":[282],"adapted,":[283],"minor":[285],"modifications,":[286],"proactive":[288],"air-quality":[289],"management":[290],"early":[293],"warning.":[294]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-04T10:54:05.112534","created_date":"2026-09-03T00:00:00"}