{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7204968450","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2608.30861","title":"Is Seismic Forecasting Possible with Physics-based AI?","display_name":"Is Seismic Forecasting Possible with Physics-based AI?","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-08-31","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7204968450","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2608.30861"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2608.30861","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.30861","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2608.30861","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["arxiv","datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2608.30861","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5148939432","display_name":"Victoria Keane","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I170897317","display_name":"Duke University","ror":"https://ror.org/00py81415","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I170897317"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Keane, Victoria","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering , Duke University , Durham NC , USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering , Duke University , Durham NC , USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I170897317"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5121086265","display_name":"Manolis Veveakis","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4911-6026","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4911-6026"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Veveakis, Manolis","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5087530330","display_name":"Thomas Poulet","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7351-3083","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7351-3083"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1292875679","display_name":"Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation","ror":"https://ror.org/03qn8fb07","country_code":"AU","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1292875679","https://openalex.org/I2801453606","https://openalex.org/I4387156119"]}],"countries":["AU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Poulet, Thomas","raw_affiliation_strings":["Earth Process Models , CSIRO , Kensington WA , Australia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Earth Process Models , CSIRO , Kensington WA , Australia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1292875679"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10110","display_name":"earthquake and tectonic studies","score":0.6782000064849854,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1908","display_name":"Geophysics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10110","display_name":"earthquake and tectonic studies","score":0.6782000064849854,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1908","display_name":"Geophysics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12424","display_name":"Earthquake Detection and Analysis","score":0.3100999891757965,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1908","display_name":"Geophysics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13018","display_name":"Seismology and Earthquake Studies","score":0.0038999998942017555,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/earthquake-prediction","display_name":"earthquake prediction","score":0.9240000247955322},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/slow-slip-events","display_name":"slow slip events","score":0.890999972820282},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/subduction-zone","display_name":"subduction zone","score":0.9909999966621399},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/limits-of-predictability","display_name":"predictability limits","score":0.8029999732971191},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/subduction-zone-deformation","display_name":"subduction zone deformation","score":0.35199999809265137}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C58097730","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q176318","display_name":"Subduction","level":3,"score":0.8565999865531921},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127313418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1069","display_name":"Geology","level":0,"score":0.8227999806404114},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C63441156","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11452203","display_name":"Episodic tremor and slip","level":4,"score":0.7032999992370605},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165205528","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q83371","display_name":"Seismology","level":1,"score":0.7023000121116638},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C155310634","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1852785","display_name":"Trench","level":3,"score":0.531000018119812},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C195268267","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1928883","display_name":"Slip (aerodynamics)","level":2,"score":0.510200023651123},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C197640229","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2534066","display_name":"Predictability","level":2,"score":0.46639999747276306},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C172724772","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1117987","display_name":"Interplate earthquake","level":4,"score":0.42980000376701355},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119477230","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7950","display_name":"Plate tectonics","level":3,"score":0.34209999442100525},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C8058405","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q46255","display_name":"Geophysics","level":1,"score":0.3257000148296356},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11097651","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q606654","display_name":"Earthquake prediction","level":2,"score":0.30880001187324524},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C197986000","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7312186","display_name":"Remotely triggered earthquakes","level":4,"score":0.29760000109672546},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C143724316","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q312468","display_name":"Series (stratigraphy)","level":2,"score":0.29510000348091125},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151406439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186588","display_name":"Time series","level":2,"score":0.2849999964237213},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C27242684","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7446964","display_name":"Seismic gap","level":3,"score":0.26919999718666077},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21089234","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6592057","display_name":"Seismotectonics","level":3,"score":0.26179999113082886}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2608.30861","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.30861","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2608.30861","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2608.30861","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2608.30861","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2608.30861","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2608.30861","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.30861","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2608.30861","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G4466710301","display_name":"CAREER: An Integrated Dissipative Modeling Framework for the Long-Term Assessment of Geohazards","funder_award_id":"2042325","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","funder_display_name":"National Science Foundation"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G6325059092","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"CMMI-2042325","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337391","funder_display_name":"Division of Civil, Mechanical and Manufacturing Innovation"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G6942913482","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"2042325","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337391","funder_display_name":"Division of Civil, Mechanical and Manufacturing Innovation"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G799280925","display_name":"CLIMA/Collaborative Research: Landslide Triggering of Thermally Sensitive Slopes due to Climate Change","funder_award_id":"2332069","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","funder_display_name":"National Science Foundation"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","display_name":"National Science Foundation","ror":"https://ror.org/021nxhr62"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337391","display_name":"Division of Civil, Mechanical and Manufacturing Innovation","ror":"https://ror.org/028yd4c30"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7204968450.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7204968450.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":6,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W2054747879","https://openalex.org/W3021169940","https://openalex.org/W3076822162","https://openalex.org/W3215519354","https://openalex.org/W4411088131","https://openalex.org/W7119132069"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7119132069","https://openalex.org/W7151459375","https://openalex.org/W2498898127","https://openalex.org/W2910431716","https://openalex.org/W4322212424","https://openalex.org/W7162457801","https://openalex.org/W4386124392","https://openalex.org/W7045597226","https://openalex.org/W7163822196","https://openalex.org/W7118496100"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Slow":[0],"slip":[1,24],"events":[2],"within":[3],"subduction":[4,45,77],"zones":[5],"offer":[6],"a":[7],"unique":[8],"window":[9],"into":[10],"earthquake":[11,89],"prediction.":[12],"The":[13],"subducting":[14],"plate":[15],"drives":[16],"dehydration":[17],"reactions":[18],"in":[19,35,90],"the":[20,41,44,59,74,110,114],"fault,":[21],"causing":[22],"cyclical":[23],"and":[25,54],"observable":[26],"surface":[27],"displacements.":[28],"Earthquake":[29],"footprints":[30],"can":[31],"then":[32],"be":[33],"identified":[34],"these":[36],"displacement":[37],"series":[38],"through":[39,117],"coupling":[40],"multi-physics":[42],"governing":[43],"process":[46],"with":[47,67,79,105],"regional":[48],"seismic":[49,120],"activity.":[50],"However,":[51],"data":[52],"noise":[53],"traditional":[55],"filtering":[56],"methods":[57],"obscure":[58],"underlying":[60],"mechanisms.":[61],"Here,":[62],"we":[63,83],"alleviate":[64],"this":[65],"constraint":[66],"our":[68],"physics-based":[69,119],"attractor.":[70],"By":[71],"accounting":[72],"for":[73],"physics":[75],"of":[76,113],"paired":[78],"AI-assisted":[80],"manifold":[81],"detection,":[82],"are":[84],"able":[85],"to":[86,102,109],"predict":[87],"an":[88],"New":[91],"Zealand's":[92],"Hikurangi":[93],"trench":[94],"one":[95],"week":[96],"early.":[97],"Additionally,":[98],"predictability":[99],"limits":[100],"extend":[101],"5-6":[103],"weeks":[104],"decadal":[106],"repeatability,":[107],"pointing":[108],"fundamental":[111],"determinism":[112],"suggested":[115],"mechanism":[116],"which":[118],"forecasting":[121],"is":[122],"possible.":[123]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2026-09-02T00:00:00"}