{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7204693716","doi":"https://doi.org/10.17218/hititsbd.1834498","title":"Fuel prices, exchange rate pass-through, fiscal dynamics, and inflation in T\u00fcrkiye: an ARDL analysis for the post-pandemic period","display_name":"Fuel prices, exchange rate pass-through, fiscal dynamics, and inflation in T\u00fcrkiye: an ARDL analysis for the post-pandemic period","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-08-30","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7204693716","doi":"https://doi.org/10.17218/hititsbd.1834498"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.17218/hititsbd.1834498","doi":"https://doi.org/10.17218/hititsbd.1834498","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.17218/hititsbd.1834498","pdf_url":"https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/5470847","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210227359","display_name":"Hitit Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi","issn_l":"2757-7449","issn":["2757-7449"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["doaj","erih-plus","tr-dizin"],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Hitit Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"diamond","oa_url":"https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/5470847","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5021989541","display_name":"Mehmet Akif Pe\u00e7e","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2870-5008","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2870-5008"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I254571519","display_name":"Bartin University","ror":"https://ror.org/03te4vd35","country_code":"TR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I254571519"]}],"countries":["TR"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Mehmet Akif Pe\u00e7e","raw_affiliation_strings":["BARTIN \u00dcN\u0130VERS\u0130TES\u0130"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2870-5008","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"BARTIN \u00dcN\u0130VERS\u0130TES\u0130","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I254571519"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5021989541"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I254571519"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.0,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"19","issue":"2","first_page":"647","last_page":"669"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.9125999808311462,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.9125999808311462,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11059","display_name":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","score":0.08579999953508377,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11898","display_name":"Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets","score":0.00039999998989515007,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/inflation","display_name":"inflation","score":0.7329999804496765},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/fuel-prices","display_name":"fuel prices","score":0.9909999966621399},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/exchange-rate-pass-through","display_name":"exchange rate pass-through","score":0.9520000219345093},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/public-expenditure","display_name":"government spending","score":0.8059999942779541},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/fiscal-policy","display_name":"fiscal policy","score":0.6520000100135803},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cost-push-inflation","display_name":"cost-push inflation","score":0.9269999861717224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/demand-side-inflation","display_name":"demand-side inflation","score":0.8059999942779541},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/gasoline-prices","display_name":"gasoline prices","score":0.7680000066757202},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/diesel-prices","display_name":"diesel prices","score":0.9990000128746033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/covid-19","display_name":"COVID-19 pandemic","score":0.9120000004768372},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/turkey","display_name":"Turkey","score":0.5429999828338623},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/exchange-rate-stabilization","display_name":"exchange rate stabilization","score":0.652999997138977},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/fiscal-discipline","display_name":"fiscal discipline","score":0.6729999780654907},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/price-stability","display_name":"price stability","score":0.5509999990463257}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.8507000207901001},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776988154","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q66100","display_name":"Exchange rate","level":2,"score":0.690500020980835},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C145162277","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1751675","display_name":"Cointegration","level":2,"score":0.6844000220298767},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C200941418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q273508","display_name":"Inflation (cosmology)","level":2,"score":0.6805999875068665},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C556758197","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q580018","display_name":"Monetary economics","level":1,"score":0.5874999761581421},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.5331000089645386},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159009313","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5283159","display_name":"Distributed lag","level":2,"score":0.5302000045776367},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780502288","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q28838156","display_name":"Expansive","level":3,"score":0.484499990940094},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139719470","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39680","display_name":"Macroeconomics","level":1,"score":0.44269999861717224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C186008389","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7625010","display_name":"Structural break","level":2,"score":0.43959999084472656},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780980858","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q110022","display_name":"Dual (grammatical number)","level":2,"score":0.35280001163482666},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154815372","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1140421","display_name":"Real interest rate","level":3,"score":0.32359999418258667},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C524878704","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q187021","display_name":"Fiscal policy","level":2,"score":0.32100000977516174},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151406439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186588","display_name":"Time series","level":2,"score":0.31790000200271606},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159877910","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2202883","display_name":"Autoregressive model","level":2,"score":0.3165000081062317},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204208750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1519415","display_name":"Short run","level":2,"score":0.28949999809265137},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C34881761","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1936341","display_name":"Price level","level":2,"score":0.28769999742507935},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C610760","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1340706","display_name":"Endogeneity","level":2,"score":0.28060001134872437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C75778745","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q342626","display_name":"Lag","level":2,"score":0.27390000224113464},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777711530","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5454403","display_name":"Fiscal sustainability","level":3,"score":0.2689000070095062},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166052673","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q83021","display_name":"Empirical evidence","level":2,"score":0.26669999957084656},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C120936955","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2155640","display_name":"Empirical research","level":2,"score":0.25780001282691956},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C198531522","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q485146","display_name":"Sample (material)","level":2,"score":0.2517000138759613},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C6422946","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q857354","display_name":"Panel data","level":2,"score":0.2513999938964844}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.17218/hititsbd.1834498","doi":"https://doi.org/10.17218/hititsbd.1834498","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.17218/hititsbd.1834498","pdf_url":"https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/5470847","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210227359","display_name":"Hitit Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi","issn_l":"2757-7449","issn":["2757-7449"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["doaj","erih-plus","tr-dizin"],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Hitit Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:dergipark.org.tr:article/1834498","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/hititsbd/article/1834498","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210227359","display_name":"Hitit Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi","issn_l":"2757-7449","issn":["2757-7449"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["doaj","erih-plus","tr-dizin"],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Hitit Journal of Social Sciences, Vol. 19 No. 2","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:2c5ab24d397240888b13403494c51b22","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/2c5ab24d397240888b13403494c51b22","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Hitit Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Vol 19, Iss 2, Pp 647-669 (2026)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.17218/hititsbd.1834498","doi":"https://doi.org/10.17218/hititsbd.1834498","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.17218/hititsbd.1834498","pdf_url":"https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/5470847","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210227359","display_name":"Hitit Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi","issn_l":"2757-7449","issn":["2757-7449"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"listed_in":["doaj","erih-plus","tr-dizin"],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Hitit Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7204693716.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7204693716.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":24,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1502173616","https://openalex.org/W1966910378","https://openalex.org/W1975994995","https://openalex.org/W2018667487","https://openalex.org/W2095364399","https://openalex.org/W2097580026","https://openalex.org/W2116388354","https://openalex.org/W2153562738","https://openalex.org/W2191014338","https://openalex.org/W2607570215","https://openalex.org/W2793452861","https://openalex.org/W2908631541","https://openalex.org/W2918560367","https://openalex.org/W2955814609","https://openalex.org/W2981488118","https://openalex.org/W3114039449","https://openalex.org/W3136851363","https://openalex.org/W3164299610","https://openalex.org/W3164925673","https://openalex.org/W3192667686","https://openalex.org/W3205653078","https://openalex.org/W4220862180","https://openalex.org/W4398770514","https://openalex.org/W4406067396"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7204977800","https://openalex.org/W7222991672","https://openalex.org/W4415300521","https://openalex.org/W3138798543","https://openalex.org/W4394860814","https://openalex.org/W7135663622","https://openalex.org/W4413086432","https://openalex.org/W7111590681","https://openalex.org/W7214032586","https://openalex.org/W4415142816"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Persistent":[0],"high":[1],"inflation":[2,73,108,218],"has":[3,172],"become":[4],"one":[5],"of":[6,42,47,71,103,252],"the":[7,14,40,43,63,67,79,104,138,155,181,192,199,207,233,244,250],"central":[8],"macroeconomic":[9,69],"challenges":[10],"in":[11,23,39,219,232,243],"T\u00fcrkiye":[12,220],"over":[13],"past":[15],"decade,":[16],"with":[17,206],"increasing":[18],"complexity":[19],"arising":[20],"from":[21,94],"fluctuations":[22],"fuel":[24,77,196],"prices,":[25,78],"exchange-rate":[26,209,253],"volatility,":[27],"and":[28,55,82,119,149,160,179,198,236,260],"expansive":[29],"public":[30,83,144],"spending.":[31],"Although":[32],"these":[33],"factors":[34],"have":[35],"drawn":[36],"considerable":[37],"attention\u2014particularly":[38],"aftermath":[41],"COVID-19":[44],"pandemic\u2014the":[45],"number":[46],"empirical":[48],"studies":[49],"that":[50,143,217],"jointly":[51],"examine":[52],"their":[53],"long-":[54],"short-run":[56,95],"impacts":[57],"remains":[58],"limited.":[59],"Addressing":[60],"this":[61],"gap,":[62],"present":[64],"study":[65],"investigates":[66],"key":[68],"determinants":[70],"T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s":[72],"dynamics,":[74],"focusing":[75],"on":[76,154],"exchange":[80,170,200],"rate,":[81],"expenditures.":[84],"The":[85,128,169,214],"primary":[86],"objective":[87],"is":[88],"to":[89,228],"disentangle":[90],"long-run":[91,134,167,177],"structural":[92],"drivers":[93],"cost-push":[96,204],"pressures,":[97],"thereby":[98],"providing":[99],"a":[100,132,147,173,223],"clearer":[101],"understanding":[102],"mechanisms":[105],"through":[106,222],"which":[107],"operates.":[109],"Using":[110],"monthly":[111],"data":[112],"for":[113,264],"2014:03\u20132024:10,":[114],"all":[115],"variables":[116],"are":[117,188],"log-transformed":[118],"analyzed":[120],"within":[121],"an":[122],"Autoregressive":[123],"Distributed":[124],"Lag":[125],"(ARDL)":[126],"framework.":[127],"bounds":[129],"test":[130],"confirms":[131],"strong":[133],"cointegration":[135],"relationship":[136],"among":[137],"variables.":[139],"Long-run":[140],"estimates":[141],"show":[142],"expenditures":[145],"exert":[146],"persistent":[148],"statistically":[150,189],"significant":[151,166],"upward":[152],"pressure":[153],"price":[156,266],"level,":[157],"whereas":[158],"gasoline":[159],"diesel":[161],"prices":[162,197],"do":[163],"not":[164],"display":[165],"effects.":[168],"rate":[171,201],"positive":[174],"yet":[175],"modest":[176],"impact,":[178],"neither":[180],"pandemic":[182],"dummy":[183],"nor":[184],"its":[185],"interaction":[186],"terms":[187],"meaningful.":[190],"In":[191],"short":[193,234],"run,":[194],"both":[195],"generate":[202],"pronounced":[203],"effects,":[205],"lagged":[208],"pass-through":[210],"being":[211],"particularly":[212],"strong.":[213],"findings":[215],"indicate":[216],"functions":[221],"dual":[224],"mechanism:":[225],"heightened":[226],"sensitivity":[227],"external":[229],"cost":[230],"shocks":[231],"term":[235],"demand-side":[237],"pressures":[238],"driven":[239],"by":[240],"fiscal":[241,255],"expansion":[242],"long":[245],"term.":[246],"These":[247],"results":[248],"underscore":[249],"importance":[251],"stabilization,":[254],"discipline,":[256],"predictable":[257],"energy-pricing":[258],"frameworks,":[259],"strengthened":[261],"expectation":[262],"management":[263],"durable":[265],"stability.":[267]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-13T13:42:25.865203","created_date":"2026-08-31T00:00:00"}
