{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7204690044","doi":"https://doi.org/10.17605/osf.io/r9bgd","title":"Temporal Out-of-Distribution Validation of Calibrated Academic-Risk Early Warning Models on OULAD Learning Traces","display_name":"Temporal Out-of-Distribution Validation of Calibrated Academic-Risk Early Warning Models on OULAD Learning Traces","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-08-27","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7204690044","doi":"https://doi.org/10.17605/osf.io/r9bgd"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:doi:10.17605/osf.io/r9bgd","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://osf.io/r9bgd","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"StudyRegistration"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://osf.io/r9bgd","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5144437149","display_name":"Wang Qiushi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0006-8136-9951","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0006-8136-9951"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Wang Qiushi","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0006-8136-9951","affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5144437149"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11122","display_name":"Online Learning and Analytics","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1706","display_name":"Computer Science Applications"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11122","display_name":"Online Learning and Analytics","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1706","display_name":"Computer Science Applications"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10267","display_name":"Higher Education Research Studies","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3304","display_name":"Education"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11902","display_name":"Intelligent Tutoring Systems and Adaptive Learning","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/model-calibration","display_name":"model calibration","score":0.6119999885559082},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/virtual-learning-environments","display_name":"virtual learning environments","score":0.5389999747276306},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/prediction-reliability","display_name":"forecast reliability","score":0.4189999997615814},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/brier-score","display_name":"Brier score","score":0.5329999923706055},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/expected-calibration-error","display_name":"expected calibration error","score":0.671999990940094}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C35405484","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4967066","display_name":"Brier score","level":2,"score":0.6934999823570251},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C63479239","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7353546","display_name":"Robustness (evolution)","level":3,"score":0.5870000123977661},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C169258074","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q245748","display_name":"Random forest","level":2,"score":0.5525000095367432},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.5404999852180481},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151956035","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1132755","display_name":"Logistic regression","level":2,"score":0.5235999822616577},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.4666000008583069},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.38109999895095825},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.37130001187324524},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777267654","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3519023","display_name":"Test (biology)","level":2,"score":0.36239999532699585},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.3598000109195709},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C87007009","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q210832","display_name":"Statistical hypothesis testing","level":2,"score":0.35249999165534973},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165838908","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q736777","display_name":"Calibration","level":2,"score":0.352400004863739},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43214815","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7310987","display_name":"Reliability (semiconductor)","level":3,"score":0.3497999906539917},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44249647","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q208498","display_name":"Confidence interval","level":2,"score":0.3353999853134155},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C29825287","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1427940","display_name":"Warning system","level":2,"score":0.30329999327659607},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C152877465","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q208042","display_name":"Regression analysis","level":2,"score":0.30309998989105225},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C83546350","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1139051","display_name":"Regression","level":2,"score":0.2784999907016754},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C96608239","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1199823","display_name":"Statistical power","level":2,"score":0.27379998564720154},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3019813237","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q65089264","display_name":"Model validation","level":2,"score":0.27090001106262207},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.27079999446868896},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C106159264","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17146789","display_name":"Random testing","level":4,"score":0.26930001378059387},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C114289077","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3284399","display_name":"Statistical model","level":2,"score":0.26840001344680786},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C168743327","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1826427","display_name":"Random effects model","level":3,"score":0.26829999685287476},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C73782692","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q196372","display_name":"Random error","level":2,"score":0.2533999979496002}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:doi:10.17605/osf.io/r9bgd","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://osf.io/r9bgd","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"StudyRegistration"},{"id":"pmh:oai:share.osf.io:6e567b4c-02cc-4864-8fa2-0cfacb5ac950","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://osf.io/mgc7v","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401127","display_name":"OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2799848540","host_organization_name":"Center for Open Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2799848540"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Project"},{"id":"doi:10.17605/osf.io/r9bgd","doi":"https://doi.org/10.17605/osf.io/r9bgd","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.17605/osf.io/r9bgd","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S7407050956","display_name":"Open Science Framework","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2799848540","host_organization_name":"Center for Open Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2799848540"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"StudyRegistration"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:doi:10.17605/osf.io/r9bgd","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://osf.io/r9bgd","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"StudyRegistration"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.6164000034332275,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/4","display_name":"Quality education"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7215095217","https://openalex.org/W7204961299","https://openalex.org/W7221032880","https://openalex.org/W7202266549","https://openalex.org/W7168362113","https://openalex.org/W7223172499","https://openalex.org/W2611113740","https://openalex.org/W7204831468","https://openalex.org/W7169779864","https://openalex.org/W7213926865"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Confirmatory":[0],"secondary-data":[1],"study":[2,92],"testing":[3],"whether":[4],"stratified":[5],"random":[6,52,69],"cross-validation":[7],"overstates":[8],"the":[9,56,64],"performance":[10],"and":[11,36,49,68,88],"probability":[12],"reliability":[13],"of":[14],"early":[15],"academic-risk":[16],"models":[17],"when":[18],"evaluated":[19],"on":[20,55],"later":[21],"OULAD":[22],"course":[23],"presentations.":[24],"The":[25,31,91],"unit":[26],"is":[27,63,71],"a":[28,44,50,72],"student-module-presentation":[29],"record.":[30],"primary":[32,66],"analysis":[33],"uses":[34],"VLE":[35],"assessment":[37],"information":[38],"available":[39],"during":[40],"presentation-relative":[41],"days":[42],"0-30,":[43],"presentation-order":[45],"expanding":[46],"rolling-origin":[47],"evaluation,":[48],"matched":[51],"out-of-fold":[53],"control":[54],"same":[57],"future":[58],"test":[59],"rows.":[60],"Logistic":[61],"regression":[62],"confirmatory":[65],"model":[67,105],"forest":[70],"robustness":[73],"replication.":[74],"We":[75],"report":[76],"AUROC,":[77],"AUPRC,":[78],"Brier":[79],"score,":[80],"ECE,":[81],"calibration":[82],"slope/intercept,":[83],"paired":[84],"bootstrap":[85],"confidence":[86],"intervals,":[87],"Holm":[89],"correction.":[90],"does":[93],"not":[94],"claim":[95],"causal":[96],"intervention":[97],"effects,":[98],"individual":[99],"identification,":[100],"cross-institution":[101],"generalisation,":[102],"or":[103],"universal":[104],"superiority.":[106]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2026-08-31T00:00:00"}