{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7204248167","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22104709","title":"Quantifying Protocol-Induced Uncertainty in Comparative Predictive-Model Evaluation: Evidence from Large-Scale Daily PM10 Forecasting","display_name":"Quantifying Protocol-Induced Uncertainty in Comparative Predictive-Model Evaluation: Evidence from Large-Scale Daily PM10 Forecasting","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-08-26","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7204248167","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22104709"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.22104709","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22104709","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22104709","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"JournalArticle"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22104709","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5036342844","display_name":"Kiersten Monahan","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210152629","display_name":"Eastern University","ror":"https://ror.org/05e2ncr14","country_code":"BD","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210152629"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I905180023","display_name":"Eastern University","ror":"https://ror.org/04txhk134","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I905180023"]}],"countries":["BD","US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Monahan, Kiersten","raw_affiliation_strings":["Eastern University"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Eastern University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210152629","https://openalex.org/I905180023"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5148364001","display_name":"Rafael da Silva","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0009-8837-4579","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0009-8837-4579"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210152629","display_name":"Eastern University","ror":"https://ror.org/05e2ncr14","country_code":"BD","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210152629"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I905180023","display_name":"Eastern University","ror":"https://ror.org/04txhk134","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I905180023"]}],"countries":["BD","US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Silva, Rafael","raw_affiliation_strings":["Eastern University"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0009-8837-4579","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Eastern University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210152629","https://openalex.org/I905180023"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.61683508,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12120","display_name":"Air Quality Monitoring and Forecasting","score":0.9868000149726868,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2305","display_name":"Environmental Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12120","display_name":"Air Quality Monitoring and Forecasting","score":0.9868000149726868,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2305","display_name":"Environmental Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.002899999963119626,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12535","display_name":"Machine Learning and Data Classification","score":0.0026000000070780516,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/prediction-model-evaluation","display_name":"prediction model evaluation","score":0.7390000224113464},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/air-quality-forecasting","display_name":"air quality forecasting","score":0.7680000066757202},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/model-selection","display_name":"model selection","score":0.6449999809265137},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ranking-stability","display_name":"ranking stability","score":0.7680000066757202}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C189430467","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7293293","display_name":"Ranking (information retrieval)","level":2,"score":0.8914999961853027},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780385302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q367158","display_name":"Protocol (science)","level":3,"score":0.5975000262260437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177264268","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1514741","display_name":"Set (abstract data type)","level":2,"score":0.5501000285148621},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21200559","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7451068","display_name":"Sensitivity (control systems)","level":2,"score":0.5325999855995178},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107551265","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1458245","display_name":"Displacement (psychology)","level":2,"score":0.5291000008583069},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112972136","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7595718","display_name":"Stability (learning theory)","level":2,"score":0.5004000067710876},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.47909998893737793},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.4643999934196472},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.4489000141620636},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.4424000084400177},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C148220186","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7111912","display_name":"Outcome (game theory)","level":2,"score":0.3939000070095062},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C193244246","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5432696","display_name":"False discovery rate","level":3,"score":0.3610999882221222},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.3472999930381775},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C58489278","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1172284","display_name":"Data set","level":2,"score":0.3416000008583069},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776502983","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q690182","display_name":"Contrast (vision)","level":2,"score":0.34060001373291016},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.33719998598098755},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.27219998836517334},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C61797465","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1188986","display_name":"Term (time)","level":2,"score":0.25119999051094055}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.22104709","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22104709","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22104709","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"JournalArticle"},{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.22104710","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22104710","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22104710","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"JournalArticle"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.5281/zenodo.22104709","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22104709","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22104709","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400562","display_name":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I67311998","host_organization_name":"European Organization for Nuclear Research","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67311998"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"JournalArticle"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Comparative":[0],"studies":[1],"of":[2,26,83,108,121,135,142,212,218],"predictive":[3],"models":[4,165],"often":[5],"end":[6],"by":[7,45,51],"ranking":[8,34,42,206],"candidate":[9,159],"models,":[10],"yet":[11],"these":[12,60],"rankings":[13],"depend":[14,197],"on":[15,199],"evaluation":[16,89,201],"protocols":[17,47,103],"whose":[18],"influence":[19],"is":[20,148],"rarely":[21],"treated":[22],"as":[23,32],"a":[24,38,55,69,78,180,209],"source":[25],"uncertainty.":[27],"We":[28,58,73,203],"formalize":[29],"this":[30],"problem":[31],"protocol-induced":[33],"uncertainty":[35],"and":[36,68,87,97,110,112,119,137,144,187],"introduce":[37],"framework":[39,76],"that":[40,193],"compares":[41],"displacement":[43,49,147],"caused":[44],"switching":[46],"with":[48,128,139],"produced":[50],"conventional":[52],"choices":[53],"within":[54],"fixed":[56],"protocol.":[57],"quantify":[59],"effects":[61],"using":[62],"the":[63,75,114,153,158,167],"Protocol":[64],"Sensitivity":[65],"Score":[66],"(PSS)":[67],"full-refit":[70],"intraprotocol":[71,126,214],"reference.":[72],"validate":[74],"in":[77,173],"large-scale":[79],"sequential":[80],"prediction":[81],"study":[82],"daily":[84],"PM10.":[85],"Static-split":[86],"rolling-origin":[88],"are":[90],"compared":[91],"across":[92],"425":[93],"European":[94],"background":[95,186],"stations":[96],"365":[98],"US":[99],"EPA":[100],"monitors.":[101],"Switching":[102],"produces":[104],"mean":[105],"PSS":[106,133],"values":[107,134],"0.801":[109],"0.772":[111],"changes":[113],"selected":[115,154],"model":[116,219],"at":[117],"35.3%":[118],"31.5%":[120],"stations,":[122],"respectively.":[123],"In":[124],"Europe,":[125],"perturbations":[127,215],"identical":[129],"scored":[130],"targets":[131],"produce":[132],"0.072":[136],"0.230,":[138],"winner-swap":[140,169],"rates":[141],"0.8%":[143],"4.9%.":[145],"Between-protocol":[146],"therefore":[149],"substantially":[150],"larger":[151],"than":[152],"within-protocol":[155],"references.":[156],"Expanding":[157],"set":[160,211],"from":[161],"three":[162],"to":[163,171,184],"nine":[164],"increases":[166],"between-protocol":[168],"rate":[170],"60.2%":[172],"Europe.":[174],"The":[175],"pattern":[176],"also":[177],"persists":[178],"under":[179,208],"frozen":[181],"protocol":[182],"applied":[183],"held-out":[185],"non-background":[188],"stations.":[189],"These":[190],"results":[191],"show":[192],"model-selection":[194],"conclusions":[195],"can":[196],"materially":[198],"legitimate":[200],"choices.":[202],"recommend":[204],"reporting":[205],"stability":[207],"small":[210],"defensible":[213],"alongside":[216],"claims":[217],"superiority.":[220]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-10-07T09:51:55.459714","created_date":"2026-08-27T00:00:00"}